Vic - Extended heat spell - 3rd Jan 2013 to 12th Jan 2013

[Jake Smethurst]

Hi Ben.

That information that you are mentioning is in a password protected region of the BoM website for CFA and emergency service viewing. I think for public access, ILS has the relevant link. For the humidity values, the forecast explorer does show the forecast values, http://www.bom.gov.au/forecasts/graphical/public/vic/.

The general overall fire danger ratings for tomorrow are: Extreme in the Southwest and Wimmera, Severe elsewhere except East Gippsland where it's Very High. For tomorrow there are a number of FFDI's in the 80's for the western districts, whilst GFDI's are mainly capped at 70 in the same region. All areas except the East Gippsland will be TFB tomorrow, but wait on the CFA for confirmation. For Ballarat Ben tomorrow, the FFDI is 51, GFDI is 59.

ILS, very close to Code Red in the Southwest and Wimmera for tomorrow, but just escaping that this time.

[johnno]

Just got back from Young in NSW good 3-4 hrs NNE of Albury and the weather was so stable 34-35c each day for the 5 days I was up there, have to say the landscape looked dry all the way up there yellow and brown cept for bits near Young after getting some showers and storms near Christmas.

[Jake Smethurst]

Hope you had a great trip John

Just getting word now the whole state has been declared a TFB for tomorrow.

[droughtbreaker]

FFDIs of 50-60 are pretty much standard for heat spike days with strong northerlies in January. Black Saturday of course was off the chart and Ash Wednesday averaged around 100 which is what they set the benchmark at.

I've been out in the forests around here in recent days and it is no drier than in a normal January. There is a lot of undergrowth thanks to the 2 really wet years but it is still reasonably active growth and hasn't dried out much yet. We haven't actually had that many hot days this summer until now. I'm still very concerned, like always when we have severe fire danger rating or worse, tomorrow is going to be a fairly dangerous one, but this is nothing new to SE Australia in summer. It's a fact of life here as we know.

Grassland poses the greatest risk. Paddocks are well and truly cured for most of Victoria, especially the western half of the state and there is a lot of long grass in southern areas as a result of the wet winter. Grassfires have been very active in recent weeks even on very benign days (like yesterday).

I think the best way to approach bad fire danger days is to be prepared and vigilant but not to hype things up or go overboard. The media is already gearing up the excitement and only arsonists take heed of this sensationalist nonsense, everyone else tries to keep a level head so they can respond effectively (without excessive panic) when bad fires occur. If the media just kept a bit quiter on the subject the number of serious fires would plummet, purely because arsonists are motivated by hype.

Approaching 35C here atm. The forecast for my area was pretty much 35C, it may creep a degree higher than that.

[stevco123]

Can anyone tell me where I can get the report that used to be on BOM that listed the FFDI & GFDI forecasts?

Also does BOM have a forecast that mentions Relative Humidity?

I am always wary of hot windy days, especially with windy cool changes but if the humidity is high I'm not so worried. When I see readings for Bendigo/Ballarat that drop below 15% on hot days I get nervous, when they drop below 8% I get very nervous.

The FFDI & GFDI are things I used extensively to monitor potential danger days, I don't get 'worried' by 100's but 200+ does worry me. All Code red days are over 100, without knowing how much over 100 I can't judge the level of danger, especially for my relatives who live in areas I consider high risk. ie the Macedon & Dandenong ranges.

Isn't it located in the weatherzone state obs for free?

[I_Love_Storms]

Central upgraded to Extreme for tomorrow...

http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/warnings-rest ... d-ratings/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Edit: Thought I'd just add Eucla has equalled it's all time daily max record at 47.9 - will probably pass it this arvo!!!!

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.j ... 03&list=ob" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Australis(Shell3155)]

37.7 C here..

[BigBen]

The Humidity is there, on WZ but I was hoping for a more comprehensive report.

I've bookmarked the bom links, I like the graph for humidity.

I'd love to see the FFDI or GFDI for Ash Wednesday, I'd be stunned if the figures were not closer to 300 than 100 for Central areas. My memory is a very hot dry day. We were in the middle of a drought as well everything was tinder dry.

Anyway the current set up doesn't appear to be in that league, it may be hot for a bit but and there is always a danger of Bushfires but I'd not 'expect' one, unlike Black Saturday, where many were very concerned about the conditions.

[stratospear]

Yep, Eucla has exceeded its record and has hit 48.1 degC. Although keep an eye on Red Rocks Point which was 47.9 degC an hour earlier.

As for Victoria, here are the Fire Danger Index maps for tomorrow:
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/fire-map.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[I_Love_Storms]

Yep, Eucla has exceeded its record and has hit 48.1 degC. Although keep an eye on Red Rocks Point which was 47.9 degC an hour earlier.

As for Victoria, here are the Fire Danger Index maps for tomorrow:
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/fire-map.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The far west and west Central looks 'Code Red' for Grass Fires.

[Jake Smethurst]

The determining of the overall FDI is based on both the FFDI and GFDI and a few other things like C-Hains etc ... But yeah the GFD is very high tomorrow.

I had produced a weather report for tonight that i was going to upload, but I am having Internet troubles. I received a green screen and lighting for Christmas so it looks like I'm on tv. I've posted a snapshot below.

Reached 36 degrees here today, currently 34. Expecting 42 here tomorrow with gusty winds. I might have time to update the weather forecasts tonight

[Rivergirl]

Jake that looks awesome. What a cool idea. Well done!

[Didjman]

Reached a max of 38.1 here at 1614.
Peter

[Lily]

I had produced a weather report for tonight that i was going to upload, but I am having Internet troubles. I received a green screen and lighting for Christmas so it looks like I'm on tv. I've posted a snapshot below.

LOL that's sensational, cool present. Good job, Jake!

[I_Love_Storms]

Tomorrow will be hot and windy but latest GFS has a potentially worse day next wed. 850 at 26 with 28s through a lot of other areas of the state. EC nothing like this with cooler southerlies. Worth noting but a long way away obviously...

[Jake Smethurst]

GFS has been very persistent with returning the heat until next Wednesday from the beginning. It's hard to say if it will go ECs way or GFSs way. I tend to side with GFS, only because ACCESS is showing similar prognostics. But it could all change. Just hoping for the best here.

[93ben]

Doubt there will be any Code Red tomorrow but it may go close in some areas in West and North West. Central will not as it is still too green by all reports, Macedon may be a bigger concern and waiting for forecast to confirm.

Don't say that. All the grass here in Templestowe has dried out!

[I_Love_Storms]

Don't say that. All the grass here in Templestowe has dried out![/quote][/quote]

Sorry I wasn't clear...I was referring to the Dandenongs and forested areas in Central...I concur re your comment about grassland, this is a different story and dry in most areas I'm guessing. This is backed up by the GFDI map issued by BOM

[Tassiedave]

Record temperature in Hobart last night after 130 years of records, 25.7 degrees. It was 27 degrees at 6 am.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

27.7 here now on this WS mind you it is really only 6.41am..

Stay safe everyone.. I really hope they dont get to test out our new sirens system @ The Basin.

Keep water topped up for the birds and animals.