Vic - Extended heat spell - 3rd Jan 2013 to 12th Jan 2013

[I_Love_Storms]

Up to 41C for Melb friday.Wind will be a problem before and after the change.

I don't like the look of the forecast...

Sunny. Winds northerly 35 to 50 km/h with stronger squalls. A cooler southwest to southerly change 25 to 35 km/h at night.

Very bad fire weather - luckily a few forest areas in Central are still not fully dry (I think anyway)

[ManilaPlaya87]

Yep BOM have definetely downgraded for from tuesday onwards with the localized sea breeze fronts winning the battle however GFS has northerlies returning on wednesday

[droughtbreaker]

GFS has gone straight back to square one in it's latest run with extreme heat statewide on all days with the exception of the weekend. We can only hope that EC doesn't follow because it's looking frightening again.

Didn't make it past 22C here today, basically a cool one, a couple of degrees cooler than I was expecting. Hopefully it means that the house stays a bit cooler for most of tomorrow.

If GFS turns out to be right I can't see anything in the records, at least from January, that beats this coming heatwave for duration and intensity combined. There are a few that get close and the 1939 heatwave looks like it was more intense with about 5 days that were 45C-47C in Mildura and a few low 40s either side as well, but this intense heatwave looks like it could go on for even longer than the infamous 1939 one. Awaiting ECMWF with fingers crossed that it might go against GFS a bit.

[stratospear]

[quote="[url=http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/fo ... 452#p78452]

Very bad fire weather - luckily a few forest areas in Central are still not fully dry (I think anyway)

CFA website is predicting "Severe" fire weather on Friday. Not quite "Extreme" or "Code Red". The Wimmera and South-West Vic will be "Extreme" though.
http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/warnings-rest ... d-ratings/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I drove through the Dandenongs and Gippsland yesterday - mostly still quite green, fortunately.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ndvi/ind ... th&area=vc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Been listening to cfa scanners today, they have been busy enough today and it is only mid 20's.
Fingers crossed also.. this putts my holiday plans on hold, staying home with this heat..

[stratospear]

Over at the other forum, Blair Trewin is suggesting this heatwave could be similar to Jan 2001. Another analogous heatwave could be Jan 1981IMO.

Southern Vic doesn't look that out-of-the-ordinary.

[stevco123]

All-in-all looking like a non-event for southern Victoria. Just boring dry. Nothing out of the ordinary Ofcourse for northern
Victoria to be a lot hotter than southern. Especially in summer.

[droughtbreaker]

Well, EC is persisting with the upper high retreating after Monday and allowing the LWT to reamplify over us. It is even showing a rather strong southerly burst on Wednesday with 850T approaching 0C for the coast. Dare I say if that were to eventuate it could even go as far as causing some measurable rain to occur here.

Having said all that, I'm starting to lose patience with the models atm which seem to be having a bit of a joke with us. One scenario (the current GFS one with the prolonged extreme heat) is getting swapped around with the other (the 'friendlier' EC one) over and over again, both within each model and between them, almost like a 'good cop/bad cop' scenario. I am assuming as someone mentioned earlier, that TC Freda, and the uncertainty that always surrounds TC tracks and lifespans is causing this erraticism with the model outputs.

Someone asked the question earlier and it would be interesting to know exactly what role the TC is playing in all this. Both of the models (at least the main ones that I look at) have it floating around the Pacific in some form or another for the entire model runs.

The reports I am hearing is that the cyclone is weakening rapidly. If it were to break down would this allow the upper troughs free passage or is it much more complex than this?

[Gordon]

I asked much the same question yesterday droughtbreaker, but no response. Does this mean no-one knows the answer or that they don't read my posts? Liking the latest EC and we must assume BOM does too, as both Access and GFS look more sinister. Love to know the rationale but I guess that's why the BOM are professional forecasters and I'm not.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

[quote="Gordon" but no response. Does this mean no-one knows the answer or that they don't read my posts?

I wasnt game to answer, best left that way..

[Geoff]

In regard to the cyclone, I've just been looking at the sat loop and it already appears to be scooting off eastwards at a rate of knots, almost out of the frame on the WZ image.

[adon]

WZ synoptic is still showing the cyclone turning back to Qld and even crossing the coast later in the forecast run. Not really sure of which model they are going with as none have it even coming close......oh hang on, they are going with TWC..... Well think that someone at TWC wants a heat wave and a cyclone to cover...

[stevco123]

A bit of a side note to help us cool our heads. ..

Official BoM stats show winter in Australia in 2012 was the 3rd coldest on record.

[occluded]

25.4 here although it's a few degrees warmer than that (still working out the best place for the temp sensor!). Missing the southerly breeze today, almost no wind so far today, so feels much warmer in the garden today.

BoM now going for 41 for Friday. Not unusual for this time of year, although north of the divide looking a bit scary for the next week or so.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Taken all morning to get some moisture into my garden to help it get through tomorrow,
32.5 on this WS and rising, was hunting out any shade to stand in last hour or so.

[I_Love_Storms]

Does anyone know what the go is with GFS? Doesn't seem to have updated for a couple of runs?

[Tassiedave]

32.8 degrees in Hobart currently - forecast max was 33. Two fires have broken out, the one at Lake Repulse is of great concern, with northerly winds it could head south towards New Norfolk and Hobart. We will get 40 degrees in Tassie tomorrow for sure.

[BigBen]

Can anyone tell me where I can get the report that used to be on BOM that listed the FFDI & GFDI forecasts?

Also does BOM have a forecast that mentions Relative Humidity?

I am always wary of hot windy days, especially with windy cool changes but if the humidity is high I'm not so worried. When I see readings for Bendigo/Ballarat that drop below 15% on hot days I get nervous, when they drop below 8% I get very nervous.

The FFDI & GFDI are things I used extensively to monitor potential danger days, I don't get 'worried' by 100's but 200+ does worry me. All Code red days are over 100, without knowing how much over 100 I can't judge the level of danger, especially for my relatives who live in areas I consider high risk. ie the Macedon & Dandenong ranges.

[I_Love_Storms]

Ben, I think you need to be registered with BOM to obtain this data...I used to look at it as well but forecasts should do the trick.

Doubt there will be any Code Red tomorrow but it may go close in some areas in West and North West. Central will not as it is still too green by all reports, Macedon may be a bigger concern and waiting for forecast to confirm. There will be a fire weather warning issued soon will relevant warnings etc. I am convinced we can rely on BOM and CFA to provide us with adequate information for tomorrow.

May be worth checking this link out...has FFDI and GFDI in map form: http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/fire-map.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[johnno]

I would say Tomorrow will be a Total fire ban Day for most of the state if not all