Well, EC is persisting with the upper high retreating after Monday and allowing the LWT to reamplify over us. It is even showing a rather strong southerly burst on Wednesday with 850T approaching 0C for the coast. Dare I say if that were to eventuate it could even go as far as causing some measurable rain to occur here.
Having said all that, I'm starting to lose patience with the models atm which seem to be having a bit of a joke with us. One scenario (the current GFS one with the prolonged extreme heat) is getting swapped around with the other (the 'friendlier' EC one) over and over again, both within each model and between them, almost like a 'good cop/bad cop' scenario. I am assuming as someone mentioned earlier, that TC Freda, and the uncertainty that always surrounds TC tracks and lifespans is causing this erraticism with the model outputs.
Someone asked the question earlier and it would be interesting to know exactly what role the TC is playing in all this. Both of the models (at least the main ones that I look at) have it floating around the Pacific in some form or another for the entire model runs.
The reports I am hearing is that the cyclone is weakening rapidly. If it were to break down would this allow the upper troughs free passage or is it much more complex than this?