Heat, rain, wind, thunder & lightning, etc. - Nov 24 to ???

[BigTom]

SA lighting up like a Christmas tree!! Looks like they are mostly dry storms but this should change when it moves into Vic because of the high moisture.

EDIT: the cells that i thought were dry were actually just forming now there is a purple core about to hit Whyalla.

[James]

well if whats in SA comes this way...something is sure to go off!

[Instability]

In hindsight you have to be a bit cautious with your expectations when you have 850, 700 and 500 temps so high. We really needed a colder upper pool of air, front, cloud clearing for thermal heating or decent trough to get things going I think.

At this stage we really don't see any cooler upper temps pushing through until tomorrow afternoon, so not hopeful of anything more than what we have already had for this system. Even if things fire up in Adelaide or along the boarder I can see them dying before reaching central areas

[James]

hehe make up your minds

[Ob1]

Storms for melbourne at 11pm is my prediction

[droughtbreaker]

Best not to oversimplify things, there is no one factor that is killing it, and now storms are firing up and trying to form a line from Horsham to Port Campbell.

Instability remains high all night and no significant change until tomorrow morning. Humidity is going nowhere until cooler southerlies move in.

[James]

that one toward horsham must be a monster (well actually very high based to catch on radar) to be showing in the radar hole there!

looks like its all forming from now on!

[Geoff]

Just been out to the local lookout. Lots of Cb and Cu behind the murk to the west and northwest. Looks very health with lots of turkeys going up.

We live in a paradise location here in Olinda except for one thing - no view to the west.
Really irritates the crap out of me that I can't see what's coming at us in situations like this
Stratospear and Rhino are correct of course, it doesn't matter how hot and humid it is, if there is no trigger then nothing much will happen.
Now the colder air is finally encroaching from the west it is providing the missing ingredient and the storms are firing up.
Disgusting day up here to be working in, sweat just poured out of me all day, but It'll be worth it if those storms out west get here tonight!

[I_Love_Storms]

Finally the storm lovers can play!! Uppers cooling as trough moves in and convection firing now. Going to be interesting. My guess is some very big isolated totals if get under any of the big cells with other parts getting 10 or so mm with a nice rainband with smaller cells

[droughtbreaker]

These storms will be very high precipitation. The line through eastern SA is already producing some healthy totals with quite a few 10-20mm totals north of Adelaide and it's only just firing up. Victoria's turn is coming up with a similar 'firing up ' happening now. I can also see healthy Cu going up to the west and SW. 50mm+ falls are not out of the question between now and tomorrow morning.

[droughtbreaker]

Just been out to the local lookout. Lots of Cb and Cu behind the murk to the west and northwest. Looks very health with lots of turkeys going up.

We live in a paradise location here in Olinda except for one thing - no view to the west.
Really irritates the crap out of me that I can't see what's coming at us in situations like this
Stratospear and Rhino are correct of course, it doesn't matter how hot and humid it is, if there is no trigger then nothing much will happen.
Now the colder air is finally encroaching from the west it is providing the missing ingredient and the storms are firing up.
Disgusting day up here to be working in, sweat just poured out of me all day, but It'll be worth it if those storms out west get here tonight!

If anything, we have been saved from potential catastrophe, because if this trough had started to come through about 5hrs ago it would have been carnage.

[Geoff]

You're not wrong there Andrew!

[typhoon29]

that one toward horsham must be a monster (well actually very high based to catch on radar) to be showing in the radar hole there!

looks like its all forming from now on!

yeah James, looks like Ballarat could be in the firing line! Still stinky hot about 28. Sticky as windless. Overcast, good Cu around. Hit and miss here today, very little rain. One shower during the drive test almost wetted the road. The car showed 30 degs at the time.

[Rhino]

Big booms to my west now, around Avoca, so looks good for tonight.

Edit : very lightning active is that storm too so cameras out boys and girls.

Rhino.

[typhoon29]

plenty of thunder, storm very close now under 30km. Amazed at BoM has no STW/A for this storm???? Radar shows big echo??? But still outside watching the cricket, still sticky.

[wolfcat]

Camera... check... tripod check... SD cards check... #wolfcatcubs asleep... check... bring on the storms.

[Ob1]

Big booms to my west now, around Avoca, so looks good for tonight.

Edit : very lightning active is that storm too so cameras out boys and girls.

Rhino.

New camera in hand and at the ready

[Rhino]

Another big line looking to form to the west of Bordertown so could be a huge night, might head out in an hours time myself. Looking great, electricity in the air my friends. Another big boom and bang.

Rhino.

[James]

dad up st arnaud way is reporting lots of new anvils forming that arent yet being picked up on radar

[occluded]

STW out for Central, including Ballarat and Bacchus Marsh. Looks like the BoM are awake after all