VIC: Low Pressure System/Cold Front (13/6-?)

[Harley34]

Haven't been on for a while, but I guess things are getting a little interesting again.

Judging by the 4 day Bureau forecast, there is a decent Front and/or Low heading towards the SE from W.A via a Westerly/South-Westerly air stream.

From the 12-13th onwards, the whole of the Southern Ocean seems to be dictated by a large and Complex area of Low Pressure. It seems as if the 1st Cold Front may fall over and weaken towards the South, but the 2nd front may strengthen, originating from a new cut-off Low near Southern W.A. I am thinking the actual front will hit Victoria around the 14th-16th, depending on speed and other variables. Feel free to change the title and add any new details.

Your thoughts?

[droughtbreaker]

No one has responded to this thread yet. Looking at EC and BOM forecasts I can understand why no one is interested, however I think a lot of these models may be struggling to pick up local effects. GFS is going for 10-25mm across all inland areas in stark contrast to EC which more or less has nothing.

When we get a huge low barreling through the Bight in winter, with the highs up north in their winter position and a prevailing W/NW airstream with embedded fronts, there is almost always moisture advection over the state which precipitates on and north of the ranges. Even though EC etc. are probably on to something that I can't see, I am inclined to go more with GFS , go out on a limb and say that there will be 10-20mm on the ranges out of this and 5-10mm right across the north.

I 't think most of Melbourne won't see much if anything at all, although the outer eastern suburbs and Dandenongs should see some. Also the SW of the state would have to see something half decent.

Again, I'm probably 100% on the wrong track, but from experience, at this time of year, these systems are rarely completely dry unless it's a 1 in 100 year El Nino or something.

[Dane]

Yes it looks like WA is getting a bit of a hammering from this system but most of the models seem to think it will weaken quite a bit by the time it reaches here. We should still see some light falls from it and some windy conditions later this week.
Not that cold even after the system passes so the alpine area may not pick up much snow from it.
Might get 5 to 10 mm's in the Melbourne area from the system.

[stevco123]

So I'm assuming it's back to boring weather once again for a while with max temps in between 13 and 17. Boooorrrriiiiiinnnnggggg...

[Harley34]

After the weakened Cold Front arrives, a cut-off low forms in W.A. This is where things might get interesting. We definitely see some sort of rain within the next week.

[blackmamba]

So I'm assuming it's back to boring weather once again for a while with max temps in between 13 and 17. Boooorrrriiiiiinnnnggggg...

Fingers crossed in Septemberish things will pick up again like last year?

[stevco123]

September? I love the winter weather. Love the cold. The only thing missing here is snow. That's what let's Winter down in Melbourne. It sure feels cold enough sometimes though.

[Tassiedave]

Looking at the latest models the LOW in the Bight seems to be nearly stationary for a number of days. Why is it so slow moving?

[crikey]

ACCESS is giving much of the state 20mm on Thursday the 14th of June atm
the central pressure of the low 990 hpascal on Thursday
should be some strong wind on Thursday until the system weakens Friday to Sunday
Interested that ACCESS holds the low in the vicinity of Victoria for 4 days!!
although ACCESS has it weakening over those days
According to ACCESS: 4 days of opportunity for rain for VIC ( from Thursday to Sunday ?)
and IF the low takes its time in weakening and it shifts a few a few hundred km north we could be in for even more rain
and of course it could go the other way and just drop south
Anyway. I like the prospect of its slow travail eastward atm
( this map is hot-linked and will change/update)



Re weather boring this winter.
If some of those intense lows that have been forming south of the mainland shift north with the westerly belt over winter. We could be in for some wild bouts of weather
Looking forward to watching that westerly belt and what treats it has in store this winter?
Have a look at that 975 hpascal low in the BIGHT
Imagine that over VIC..

[stratospear]

I think that due to the dryness of air over the interior at present and the sluggishness of these complex Lows at this time of the year, 5-10mm is more likely than 20mm at this stage. Although the NE ranges and the Grampians might get 20mm+ due to topographic lifting.

The cold air looks like moving out pretty quickly in the strong Westerly stream, but early indications are that June 21-23 could see a cold outbreak hit Vic...

[Rivergirl]

Welcome back Jake from your overseas jaunt Thanks so much for updating the forecasts, you're a legend

[typhoon29]

rather windy outside. Looking @ the radar etc on weatherzone, SA is getting a pasting! How much of that activity will effect Vic or will it slide south and go through Bass Straight?

[adon]

We are getting the remains of that suff now. Just virga-ish rain and not enough to wet the ground. Depressing really.

[stratospear]

We are getting the remains of that suff now. Just virga-ish rain and not enough to wet the ground. Depressing really.

Not unexpected given the utter lack of moisture from the NW.

[mick]

There is a wisp of a westerly trying to give the city a rumble by moving that weak line west, warm enough. Might get something pop up down cranny way this evening, got that feel in the air.

Welcome back to the traveller, home safe, good to see.

[crikey]

Nothing to be called rain here at all
Willie weather gave us 100% chance of 1 to 5mm
may have had one mm in mizzle
Just overcast and cold not at a lot of wind at all here
Looking benign here and probably expecting a repeat tomorrow
overcast and cold, little wind , no rain( west nth central : dunolly)
Barom ' pressure at 1010 h pascal at Bendigo. Not very low

[93ben]

Well it's raining heavily here now in Templestowe, but unfortunately I don't think we'll have what Perth had earlier in the week.

[blackmamba]

Drizzled twice here.
That's about it.

[nafets]

There is a wisp of a westerly trying to give the city a rumble by moving that weak line west, warm enough. Might get something pop up down cranny way this evening, got that feel in the air.

Welcome back to the traveller, home safe, good to see.

Yeah i know exactly what you mean by having that feel in the air! It felt like a day in spring/ summer (obviously not with the heat!), I'm not too sure why though?! North westerly wind?

[occluded]

Ended up with 6mm here, which was 5.9mm more than expected.

Relatively mild today with the NW'ly and the sun is out, enough to get a bit of a dose of Vitamin D.