Burst of winter 23rd - 27th May

[Rhino]

Nice falls just over our west border, 20mm+ and getting some nice falls starting to develop around the Horsham area.

Rhino.

[Skywalker]

Sun has just come out here at work. Nice little red cell on the radar as well, just west of Bacchus Marsh.

[Soxy]

Just wondering if anyone has heard from Nick & Wes lately.

[snowshow]

the time is 1530 and we have the first spots of rain in South Gippsland!

[rikjpool]

A nice image from Horsham Area taken by Lynton Brown that he posted on the "WeatherChannelAustralia" facebook site.
Gives a nice picture of what the radar really isnt showing much of.

[wobbie]

A nice image from Horsham Area taken by Lynton Brown that he posted on the "WeatherChannelAustralia" facebook site.
Gives a nice picture of what the radar really isnt showing much of.

Amazing photo

[Rivergirl]

Awesome photo Rik, haven't been on facebook today yet to see Lynton's posts.

[Onetahuti]

Severe Weather Warning
for heavy rain
for people in the Wimmera, South West, North Central, Central and West and
South Gippsland forecast districts.

Issued at 3:49 pm EST on Thursday 24 May 2012.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system is developing rapidly over northwestern Victoria and will
move southeastwards to be just south of Melbourne by Friday morning and just
east of Tasmania by Friday night. The low will intensify further as it tracks
away across the south Tasman Sea on Saturday.

Rain and possible thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding are forecast
to develop across eastern areas of the Wimmera and South West district and
western parts of Northern Central districts overnight and during Friday
morning, particularly around the Otways. The area of heavy rain will contract
eastwards to the Central district and west Gippsland region by Friday evening.
Winds averaging 40 to 60 km/h with gusts to 100km/h are also forecast to
developing about the coast between Cape Otway and Wilsons Promontory during
Friday

[Anthony Violi]

System is tracking beautifully. As promised, cloud band back to Malaysia.

Cold air now riding up to Alice Springs, and the circulation has commenced.

Very heavy rain for most states, especially us as the low cranks tomorrow arvo.

Still trying to work out how Norwegian has light air for us, good to see the BOM have issued a SWW for 100km/hr winds.

Tomorrow night as we wrap into SW we will get heavy rain and extreme winds.

[daviescr]

System is tracking beautifully. As promised, cloud band back to Malaysia.

My pleasure, you guys have sucked the Sumatra Monsoon away from Singapore / Malaysia. It really has been the most boring dull weather hear for the last 3 days. Normally this is the 2nd wettest month of the year, but so far only half of the ~150mm has fallen.

[sparra]

Have been watching this thread all week hoping we would get something......we have just had 24mm in about 40 minutes with some small hail.....hallelujah!!!! Just beautiful to watch. Our canola went in over the last 4 days so perfect timing ....... we really weren't sure if we should put in or not but we decided to based on a lot of what was said in this thread....... now on with the rest

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Good to hear it went your direction all the plans Sparra.. !

Soxy yes you can hunt Wes down on the net somewhere.. PM me if further details required.

[Anthony Violi]

Its pivoting right on Nhill Sparra, should see good falls.

Here comes the inner bands near Swan Hill, watch these develop and explode.

Massive rain fall look like likely, at least 75-100mm i would say for most areas SE of where the low is now.

[James]

when will the chance of thunder be highest in the melb area?

[Anthony Violi]

When the low is closest James, possibly tomorrow night.

Could be well embedded though..and being cold a lot of hail but not much lightning.

[BigTom]

Today so far has been cold, cloudy and boring (was sunny in the morning). Hopefully the rain arrives here soon, really hoping that it hails a lot so the ground goes white and i can take some winter pictures!

The BOM is saying only 4-10mm for tomorrow while WZ says 20-40mm?

[Alexia]

We have had 11.5mm rain so far just nice steady rain.

[I_Love_Storms]

Gee the 512km radar looks awesome!!! Anything could happen here. Going to be some awesome weather over the next 48 hours! 4-10mm may be conservative from the BOM but it is possible Melbourne city could miss the 'bulls eye'. Some places around Central are bound to get 75mm-100mm IMO though.

[Dane]

Min 10Max 15 Rain periods. Becoming windy.Chance of any rain: 95% Rainfall amount: 4 to 10 mm

See above for BOM latest Melbourne Forecast for tomorrow.
They are only going for 4 to 10mm's
And I thought I was conservative

[nafets]

The low is in nw Vic right? If it moves se over Melbourne, won't that mean that all the rain will be positioned around the low? Im not really sure, could anyone explain how it works?