Extended wet spell May 1st - ?

[Geoff]

May as well start a new thread for this upcoming event. Looks like another big rain event will unfold this week for many of us in Victoria with a trough from the west getting wrapped up with an easterly dip, forming a complex low pressure system which hangs around for several days. On top of last weeks big rains this could pose problems for many, especially in southern areas.

[adon]

If it could move over western Vic including the NW I reckon you would see nothing but smiles. Dont think this will give us much.

[Rhino]

Yeah that's the only problem Adon by the looks, GFS especially going for heavy falls again around the same areas as the last system at this stage, and little for the NW. Will see how the models deal with this but NW looks to get the least amount and sth areas get decent falls again, will be nice to get a nice big rain producer coming in from the nth but can't see it at this stage but it will come, hopefully sooner than later. Will probably see around 5-10mm around my area but falls will be alot heavier in the south and certainly will cause some problems if it all comes together properly.



Rhino.

[Tassiedave]

Looking at ACCESS and GFS it seems we are certainly going to cop it down here in Tassie, the low will stay still over us for an extended period of time.

[Karl Lijnders]

The low is going to be much wetter on the northern and eastern flanks so Southern and Eastern Victoria can expect very wet weather, including Melbourne. Up to 100mm is likely in most southern areas this week with 10-20mm over the north of the divide over a few days. Won't be super cold air but should be snowfalls returning to alpine areas above 1400m.

Rain developing tomorrow night from the west extending east for Central areas on Wednesday where 30mm is possible as the system stalls and wraps into a low.

Beyond that it comes down to position and so needs to be watched closely for areas east of Melbourne.

[Karl Lijnders]

The developing low still looks good on most of the charts this evening with EC out shortly for the evening run.

I still anticipate a very heavy rain event for southern and eastern Victoria at this point on the back of the last weeks rain, could be a flooding event for E Central areas.

[Anthony Violi]

This extended wet spell will extend until October. It will be relentless.

And this sytem will be an exact replica almost of the last one will just be a matter of the position and whther it stalls in a cradled formation

Again, tropical moisture into a cold cored airmass and the rain on the southern flank of the low will be very heavy, especially coastal.

And then a huge LWT is in the offing with another big pulse of Indian Ocean moisture which will be the source of our wet winter and Spring.

[stratospear]

And then a huge LWT is in the offing with another big pulse of Indian Ocean moisture which will be the source of our wet winter and Spring.

Given the developing -ve Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that's a real possibility. Real strange with an ElNino also forming. Kind of like 1992 or 1930...

[droughtbreaker]

The cold front tomorrow should affect most of the state including the NW. Probably only 1-5mm up there but there could be isolated higher falls.

10-15mm general on and south of the ranges.

The low to follow is being treated very differently by different models. GFS has it winding up right in the sweet spot for most of VIC with huge accumulated multi day totals of 50-100mm widespread on and south of the ranges, 10-25mm north of the ranges and 100mm plus in coastal areas, particularly coastal ranges.

EC paints a very different picture and after a quick check around the southern half of the state on yr.no, doesn't seem to have that much rain at all.

IMO it should line up more with the GFS scenario, and depending how close the low gets to central VIC, there could be widespread heavy falls.

[adon]

The front coming into SA now doesn't look very inspiring so hope it runs into some moisture on the way across. As for the chance of a low giving us rain during the week. Will cross my fingers but won't hold my breath!

[Karl Lijnders]

Band of rain should become more convective over and east of Adelaide this afternoon and should start to see showers develop over northern districts this evening and rain over western areas tonight. The band will slow down so falls fo 10-25mm over C areas is fair and 10mm throughout the state.

Beyond that it comes down to position but overall it looks to be lining up southern and eastern areas of the state with some smattering of rain making it across the divide at least. Chance of scattered storms in the north later this week near an upper low.

[Pane]

G'day

Is this rain band likely to get me here in jerilderie?

We need a bit here to get the canola going.

Cheers

[johnno]

Okay here we go here all the models..... The majority are going for a wrap around over Central Victoria and Melbourne from the SW and a surface and Upper low just E or SE of us moving ever so slowly so perisitent wet weather for the next few days.

UKMET Model/Bristish Model: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

JMA/Japanese model: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GFS/Global forecasting model: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

CMC/Canadian model: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... MO=&ZOOM=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NOGAPS: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[johnno]

CMC Rainfall next 7 Days: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... MO=&ZOOM=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GFS rainfall next 7 Days: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NOGAPS rainfall next 7 Days: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... MO=&ZOOM=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Anthony Violi]

Looking good, there is lot of moisture being drawn in to this system. You will start to see it overnight get dragged down in to this band from NSW.

Not evident yet but it will shape itself in the next 12 hours. Also notice the cold is already surging Northwards towards Woomera and tilting the rainband, looks like the upper low is going to start winding up by morning. The feature of this being its slow moving so by Thursday will start to really get going and should repeat the stream showers to the Eastern side of town with plenty of rain.

And also, 24 degrees today, i have nothing further to add, the weather will do that.

[Rhino]

Certainly looking wet in the areas that got a drenching from the last system so keep an eye out for the severe weather warnings that will eventuate in those areas folks. Bloody shame that the drenching falls won't penetrate much over the divide towards the NW but that's always the way, can't wait for a nice big NW cloudband for them, but those in the south will get some enjoyment out of it as long as it does'nt cause probs. Still sticking with 5-10mm here.

Rhino.

[mick]

Its going to get wet, leave early tomorrow.

[Geoff]

Doppler showing first wind change to westerly crossing the bay now, just reaching the CBD with the first pre-frontal showers. Main rain band behind seems to be slowing down as well, just a matter of wait and see where it grinds to a halt.

[nafets]

22.9°C here today. Most of the models have good rain for central/ southern vic, hoping for 20mm+, or more than the last system (about 25mm)!

[nafets]

Bay effect already!?!?!?! wow