Really looking forward to it! I've just taken a look at the unfolding synoptic pattern for the coming 7 days on Weatherzone and it's looking insane!! Man I love it when cold air and hot air prepare to do battle over Victoria!! lol
The satellite pic doesn't look too bad with the cloud streaming in from the northeast, I expect it'll become a bit more humid and fairly unsettled here in Melbourne with showers and possibly the risk of a thunderstorm developing over the next couple of days
Rhys_34 wrote:I might be missing something but where is the cold air in this scenario? GFS has temps of around only 4-5C at 850hpa for Tuesday and Wednesday, with maximums of 16C forecast for Melbourne I would have thought it would have to be closer to 0C?
Looks like GFS have a really warm humid airmass and then fire the cold air in Wed
Yeah coldest comes in from Wednesday on the western side of the low. Some fairly blasty SW winds as well so it will feel very chilly.
The cloud is developing across the state right now in response to the moisture increasing from the NE and some instability along a trough in the E of the state as well.
Another pool of cold air will move through the north and west tomorrow and this may trigger further showers and storms mainly through C and E areas. 10-20mm possible even across parts of C Victoria.
Here's an interesting comparison between GFS and AccessG for next Thursday that I'll be keeping an eye on, to see how it eventuates.
If GFS is right most of Victoria will be under water, if AccessG is right most of Victoria will be dry!
Our friends in SW WA will be very interested in the GFS scenario too!
Nafets, that's just for next Thursday, here is the GFS accumulation from now til Wednesday, if they're right the ground will be very wet over many parts by then...
Really starting to look like some very useful systems to come through over the period till next thurs (don't know what the cutoff date is for this thread?) and probably the only downside to them is there might'nt be much going through the NW grain growing areas but if next thurs come off would be ideal up there, might even be a little too wet for a while.
Showers moving in from the NE at a decent rate of knots and should be in central districts in 2-3 hrs. Most of us should get 5-15mm over the next 4 days which will be a nice entree next weeks falls.
I am wondering what is contributing to the complexity of the systems in the coming week. Models seemed to change markedly on each run and seem to be quite different to each other. Why the uncertainty?
During the Changing of the seasons there's cold pools forming inland and with the troughs and lows coming through the models are having a hard time interpreting it properly. Also it's because of the systems being rather close together maybe that could be why too. The knowledgable blokes will answer it better for you.
The weather of the coming week is caused by high levels of atmospheric moisture being lifted or rising into cold dense air a few km above the surface. Hence why there is large amounts of rainfall forecast. Of course you need the trigger being the cold air to lift the moisture, and today is a great example where the trigger is weak and we are left with humid and cloudy skies.
Today there will be cloud right across the state with areas of light rain but not much in it. The rain will increase from the NE later today with isolated thunderstorms there and also about the western regions of the C districts later near another small trough. Humid throughout.
Friday scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop, mainly during the afternoon with some of the storms possibly severe over the ranges and NE. Otherwise fine in the far W. Humid and mild throughout.
The weekend should be generally fine apart from isolated showers in the afternoon on Saturday in the east and showers developing during Sunday from the west near another short wave, which will move into Central areas later. Isolated thunderstorms possible later Sunday in Central areas including Melbourne.
Early next week another pool of cold air will rise from the southern ocean and interact with lingering moisture over the SE and another in feed of moisture from the NT. Widespread cloud and rain will develop over SE Australia during the Tuesday before settling in for the remainder of the week. There is the potential for some large rainfall totals through southern VIC and E NSW with a developing low pressure system however location is the key to the heaviest of the rainfall.
Temps will be cold enough for snowfalls to develop to the lowest levels of the year and hail will return to southern coasts behind the low pressure system.
This will be the last time we will see this sort of weather before spring.
Yeah should be a few good bursts up in the NE this afternoon there athern! I would think 10-20mm possible next 24hrs.
Should see showers and storms form on the W Central ranges this afternoon and tend to rain over the Grampians this evening. Melbourne really between it all but still a risk of a shower or storm. Tomorrow is a better chance but keep watching the radar.
Meso, given the set up, id imagine it will be very messy out there underneath it all. Cant imagine to many nice bolts to show. But i would love to proven otherwise... as a precaution the batteries are a chargin.
I live in a world where I dont see to believe, but I believe to see...
The line as it approaches from the east. This is the southern quadrant building ahead and feeding in to the main complex. iPhone pic... cant see the nice infeed band to well...
I live in a world where I dont see to believe, but I believe to see...
