Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[crikey]

WATL wind forecast
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
is confirming a small ECL on the NSW coast commencing north coast NSW around wednesday and moving south down coast down toward VIC border before it exits stage right late friday ..

At least at this stage it forms quickly and leaves quickly. Only 2 days from start to finish at this stage. Still time for trouble

Wednesday indicating some very strong onshore south/easterlies from a massive high with a 1040 hpascal centre ( isn't that quite strong for week 1 march ) pushing onto the NSW coast... High winds for NSW coast , Wednesday /Thursday at this stage

Interesting to see the synoptic pattern slowly change as droughtbreaker said. The first Large Massive high ( and they are nothing but trouble) we have seen in a while. Its the first one for a long time that hasn't split in two

The N/west coast of OZ looking favorable for TS / TC formation with the high directing south/easterlies up to the monsoon trough from Wednesday and some north westerlies entering the monsoon trough
EC WATL wind is drafting out the shape of a low in the area ( north west Australia in the Indian ocean)
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The last rain has just changed the landscape in our area over the past week. Everything is bright green after being burnt golden brown.

Plenty of fog from journey home ..geelong to newstead last night.. Moisture plus !!

[Jake Smethurst]

I agree with Anthony on the cyclone affecting the northwest coastline at some point during the next few weeks, models have been hinting at it now for a few days and GFS is the most keen at this stage, but all models have some type of low feature off the northwest coast later in their runs. Also worth to watch is another moisture plume possibly coming down from the northwest early next week, will be interesting to see if that eventuates, EC looks juicy if that goes ahead. Also worth to note that EC puts us in northeasterly flow from next Monday, a second source of moisture. Something to watch anyway.

[johnno]

Isn't it funny that once again EC has fallen inline with GFS for later next week, GFS has wanted nothing to do with what EC had been showing in previous runs for next week and instead has had the LWT peaking near us instead of South of WA then bang this morning EC does the same thing, seems to be the trend in recent months which I have pointed out a few times. Be interesting what they show Tonight.

[Anthony Violi]

Its all bad news im afraid, will probably finish off some areas in the next month.

Looking like a very strong MJO pulse will come down the guts again and destroy the interior again, with the possibility of a long wave trough finishing the job.

The question is do we get a repeat next week, or do we get the longwave first, and the cyclone moisture slide in after. First the NW areas of OZ will get slaughtered, and we will see a gradual build up again for Se areas.

If you have any insurance stocks i would sell them now, will only go down from here.

If we get any sort of decent heat a March 6 style event will occur also.

[Geoff]

Holey moley, all 3 major models going for something BIG in a weeks time.
EC going for a double whammy, 2 cut off lows, one on Wed-Thurs, and another on Sat-Sun.
Access going for a cut off low with a N/W cloudband infeed from the tropics on Fri-Sat.
GFS going for a cut off low bombing right over us on Thurs-Friday.
Surely all 3 can't be wrong?

[Supercellimpact]

Yeah Geoff looking ominous, episcally for the flood affected areas in Vic and southern Nsw. I just had a look at GFS on the bsch site and for here it's got 75mm and peaks at 150 in the NE. EC picks up on it very late in the run. Yeah it's looking like a deep low going over tassie for the west, attached is a NW cloud band. If this continued to be held by the models the flood affected areas could get hammered again which would spell disaster and a major scale. A very close eye should be kept on the models over the next 5 days.

[Anthony Violi]

And as i continually say this is one the beginning of whats coming in the next 12 months.

IOD is the killer blow, its going negative and we will get a wet winter across the whole country, add the potential of snow as far North as Coober Pedy and you have a disaster which makes our current situation look like a picnic.

Most people forget, we have had our peak heat, as pathetic as it was, the ground will now stay saturated, meaning water will only increase above the surface.

2012 will indeed be the year everyone remembers for the certain disaster that is unfolding.

[Geoff]

Well nearly a month since AV's last post, shows how quiet the weather has been of late, but things look set to improve if AccessG and GFS are to be believed. Easter Monday through to Wednesday looks set for a possible cut off Low with some quite cold air mixed in to deliver significant rain to most of Victoria (AccessG), or mostly southern and eastern Victoria (GFS). Pretty warm and mostly settled up until then though.

[Tassiedave]

It seems to me that after Easter Monday there will be an extended dry period with High pressure dominating. Do the experts on AWF agree?

[johnno]

Yep unfortuntly Dave. I told Adon around the Equinox few weeks ago back in March that the signals to me indcated that April will be dry this Year for Victoria and SE Australia in general and so far it looks to be going and heading that way, we may see some rain later in the month and May. In the shorterm should get some showers with the front on Monday.

[johnno]

I'm not too discouraged though normally a dry April is followed by a normal or wetter May as past history shows and also just cos we have a dry April it doesn't mean the rest of the Year will be dry ie 1993 & 2005 there are some signs suggesting that normal patterns will resume in a few weeks time. Traditionally the proper Autumn break doesn't occur to around Anzac Day week or at the latest first week of May.

[droughtbreaker]

April can be very dry on the odd occasion, especially away from the coast and eastern suburbs of Melbourne where showers are more likely to fall within high pressure systems and with weak cold fronts thanks to the bay influence in southerly winds.

Some examples of very dry Aprils here where there was no El Nino;

1976- 14mm
1981- 11.6mm
1993- 19.4mm

also....

1991- 38.7mm
1988- 40.5mm

Only three Aprils recorded above 100mm here since 1974.

Basically, the pattern in April is for high pressure dominance and blocking patterns. In the wet years (for the inland) you usually get a cut off low and/or a cold front with NW cloud band that usually makes up for most of the monthly total. If you don't get these systems coming through at all it will definitely be a dry month for on and north of the ranges.

Having said this it is fair to say that this month could still end up wet or at least average, even if we get a system coming through in the last few days of the month as often happens at this time of year. Regular rain bearing systems and fronts are not the norm in early to mid Autumn.

[Anthony Violi]

Everyone should enjoy the sunshine and relatively dry April..

[adon]

We missed out on any substantial rainfall from that warm thundery period last week and now areas that did miss out are really feeling it. I had a massive amount of grass and other sheep feed germinate in the 50mm march event and that is now all about to die as it has used nearly all of the moisture from that rain. Really needing a rain so that feed can continue to grow. We are much better off that the SW but another month of this and we will not be too far behind them. Hopefully there is something in the next week or two. Te 28 day rain forecast on WZ is next to useless as it did have about 2 weeks of high rain chance for this period a couple of week ago but now now.

So when do people think we are finally going to get another widespread drink?

[Geoff]

Adon, if you can just hold on for one more week, several models are looking promising for widespread rain even up your way, 20-50mm looks on the cards later next week. Hope it will be soon enough to save/boost crops!

[adon]

Yeah Geoff cheers, was about to post about the same thing. GFS has a low creeping in from the NE and I suppose dragging moisture in with it. Strill a long way off but at least something to cross my fingers for.

[stratospear]

Well how the models have changed.... Looks like there could be a warm spell mid-next week with blowtorch Northerlies followed by a grunty cold front ripping through Thursday/Friday. But again it looks like Southern Vic will get most of the rain... Until a NW cloud-band develops and gets caught up in one of these fronts, probably not much luck for Northern Vic.

[droughtbreaker]

Well, I'd hardly call low to mid 20s in the south blowtorch lol, but I see what you mean.

It's not really looking all that promising yet. Winter is the time when inland VIC usually gets most of the rain, basically on and north of the ranges. Recent years have seen a trend towards drier winters, especially the early part of winter and late autumn, due to a decrease in the frequency and intensity of cold fronts and zonal patterns more common with straight westerlies which usually sends rainfall south towards the coast.

It's way too early to pass any judgment on what lies ahead but the very early signs are frustrating for most of VIC.

[johnno]

Models going for another major cold outbreak next weekend and looks colder than anything we have had so far this Year.. GFS and ACCESS have been all over this for days and now EC is gradually falling into line with it as well

[droughtbreaker]

EC is off doing its own thing atm. It's still showing some cold air for an extended period of time starting from next weekend, no cold outbreak though. GFS on the other hand is holding firm to a pretty decent cold outbreak with snow down to about 800m and that's even a little conservative from what the models are showing.

What I am liking atm is that the average position of the highs is shifting north towards its winter position pretty early and the h. pressure cells themselves are relatively weak and mobile, at least compared to the 1036-1040hpa blocking monsters we have seen at this time of year in recent years.