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April-June SE rainfall outlook?

Archived Nerdy Forum (Weather Q&A).
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Gordon
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April-June SE rainfall outlook?

Post by Gordon »

I don't place a lot of faith in the NCC's three month outlooks, but the latest one has me even more confused than usual - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

With a forecast neutral IOD and neutral La Nina/ El Nino indicators http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, can anyone shed light on the prediction of a drier period for much of Vic?
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Re: April-June SE rainfall outlook?

Post by crikey »

Yeah. Not a lot of explanation to be found Gordon..
However ,Found this statistical probability for rainfall in a decaying La Nina which seems to contradict or disagree with that seasonal outlook you posted ??
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ninacomp.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
see below
Here is a statistical correlation of the general pattern of La Nina events including the decay of a la Nina that may be of interest Gordon.
This map indicates the statistical expectation of rainfall for march to may during a decaying la Nina . This correlation map of typical La Nina decay has Vic as mainly average rainfall and parts of VIC in the 7th decile or just above average
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/data ... armay1.gif" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: April-June SE rainfall outlook?

Post by Rivergirl »

I saw a video clip on The Age website this morning from Weatherzone saying La Nina had officially retreated. Isn't it supposed to come back again?

http://media.theage.com.au/news/environ ... 72529.html

Off topic crikey. My sister is going on a cruise around the Pacific Islands from Saturday. Can you see anything happening around those islands after what happened to Fiji? Thanks Robyn
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Re: April-June SE rainfall outlook?

Post by Gordon »

Thanks Crikey and Rivergirl. I'm none the wiser but at least I know I'm not the only one confused by that outlook!
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Re: April-June SE rainfall outlook?

Post by droughtbreaker »

BOM seasonal forecasts are rarely correct. I don't believe in them personally, they are too simplistic in theory. They only take into account ocean temperatures and how they correlate historically with the actual climatic conditions. The reliability of these statistical forecasts are often defined as 'weak' to 'moderate' by the BOM themselves within the actual outlook.

Organisations such as JAMSTEC, NOAA and ECMWF all produce long term climate outlooks based on computer models that are a lot more accurate than anything the BOM has ever put out.
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