High Temperatures, High Humidity and Storms 26 Feb - Mar 3

[Anthony Violi]

Btw, all the rain for us hasnt even developed yet...cold air still back past Esperance, another 24 hours before we start to see it erupt for us.

[Anthony Violi]

Yeah John system 2 for us is the biggest danger, what we get with this system will be a bonus, and it could be a decent one.

[stevco123]

Looking at the Bureau's latest 7 day forecast...and it seems they are playing it safe for next week with partly cloudy days forecast for 4 days out of 7. I love AWF so much.

I feel sorry for people planning outdoor things for next weekend thinking it will be the "perfect weather" (24 and partly cloudy), only to realise that they will be washed out they way things are panning out at the moment.

[Anthony Violi]

Apparently using common sense at the BOM is not allowed.

Because very cold mid troposphere temps with this atmosphere mixed together is equivalent to 200 Hiroshimas of energy. As we will all witness over the coming weeks and months

[James]

well i assume i wont need to water the garden tonight?

[I_Love_Storms]

Interesting stuff. Back in melb next week so could get welcomed with some flooding!

[Gordon]

10 mm in 10 minutes in west Anglesea during the first lot of storms, another coming through now - more intense but shorter lived. About to head home to see what the cell over home at Gordon has dropped.

[Ausmammal]

I hope that rain band near Ballan will make it here.

[Rhino]

Geez just had a decent storm here, 14mm in 20 mins, backyard like a lake although only 1 clap of thunder heard but really came out of nowhere. Suns out now so it's a tad sticky to say the least.

Rhino.

[typhoon29]

we just got sideswiped by a storm. Temp dropped from 30od to 18 degs in a matter of minutes. Alas its over now, the sun is out and the temp has ballooned back up. 5mm. More to come over night.

[nafets]

Good start Rhino! Expecting the rain to arrive here in about an hour, but very light.

[HarleyB]

I am expecting to get 40-45mm here, anything more will be a bonus imo considering we are already close to the monthly average.
Late next week looking interesting to say the least.

[stevco123]

So realistically, we are not expecting anything major to develop tonight over Melbourne. Are we? Or will the development continue through the night?

[SC.]

I'm no expert, but judging by the radar, the current Sat pics and the latest models, this system has the potential to go nuts overnight.

I've cleaned out my gutters.

[93ben]

I'm no expert, but judging by the radar, the current Sat pics and the latest models, this system has the potential to go nuts overnight.

I've cleaned out my gutters.

Yeah that's what I was thinking. If the troughs from WA and QLD clash, this will probably cause heaps of rain & thunderstorm activity. Atm they look pretty close to each other!

[TheFishmanAU]

Looks like it is lining up for me, just around East Ivanhoe-Bulleen-Templestowe. Looking good.

[Jake Smethurst]

So realistically, we are not expecting anything major to develop tonight over Melbourne. Are we? Or will the development continue through the night?

There should be a couple of showers and thunderstorms about tonight on and off. The trough is still sitting back in southwest Victoria and won't move from there until tomorrow afternoon probably. The heavier rain areas and more widespread thunderstorms will be tomorrow.

[VRB20G45]

Looking at the Bureau's latest 7 day forecast...and it seems they are playing it safe for next week with partly cloudy days forecast for 4 days out of 7. I love AWF so much.

I feel sorry for people planning outdoor things for next weekend thinking it will be the "perfect weather" (24 and partly cloudy), only to realise that they will be washed out they way things are panning out at the moment.

So you have ACCESS, US, UK and JMA all going for a relatively benign situation with a high to the west and southerly flow over Victoria and you want them to go predicting a massive event?

Imagine if they had predicted a massive event for day 5 based on the EC whilst all the other models pointed to something less serious....that wouldn't be very responsible would it? Sure the EC has skill but you want model consensus especially when it comes to forecasting an event which may have ramifications for emergency services etc.

[nafets]

I think the radar is underestimating rainfall totals...Rutherglen in NE VIC has already had 50mm! Barely looked like much on the radar. Check it out here: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... yarrawonga" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[dagget]

Storms and rain here now for us, looks like it will be short and sharp given the radar. Nice end to a hot weekend