High Temperatures, High Humidity and Storms 26 Feb - Mar 3

[Supercellimpact]

Holy Sh*t at the last GFS. Haven't seen a model run like that since last summer. Imagine if that happened.

[fireone]

If we were to take notice of the GFS model it will be very wet, especially in some areas!

[mad*moo73]

Congrats aussiestormfreak on your engagement!!!

[HarleyB]

Temp on the decrease here, peaked at 29.1°C at around 9:45, now down to 26.8°C. Humidity on the rise throughout the morning, as expected

[Anthony Violi]

All the models will jump on to this quicker than a $2 hooker tonight. We will see 6 months rainfall through a fair swathe of the country, especially inland.

This will be the biggest disaster in a long time, given the set up, which is quite unique. I have no idea why they keep bringing the ridge up early and pushing rain north, now they are starting to align by relaising this cold air pool is phenomenly strong in accordance with a huge plunge in global temps.

Dewpoints are extraordinary, 20 degrees plus for 3/4 of the country which is unheard of. And for the next 7 days too with a second cold pool raging in from the due south behind this one. This is where the models fail badly.

And most improtant is all the river system are strectched to the limit after last years records. Spells disaster in anyones language.

[nafets]

WOW at the 18z GFS!! Major increase from the previous run.>!!!

[Supercellimpact]

Some showers are developing to my east, visible on the radar as a line from Seymour to Hay in NSW. Watch for some storms to fire up later on. Wouldn't be surprised if we picked up 5mm today before the trough comes in.

[Poncho]

I have a bit of spare time
This afternoon.. Is it worth a chase today or should I not bother? Don't really wanna go too far out of Melbourne! If it's a good chance today - any recommendations?

[HarleyB]

Rain here, looks very tropical. The humidity will jump through the roof here now. It's on!

[blackmamba]

Gosh! Sitting in the living room! And I'm definitely feeling the humidity.

I like seeing we're in the storm radius on the chart at the bottom of the forums.

[93ben]

GFS may be right unfortunately as the BOM is producing a lot of flood watches! http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Luken]

Getting quite unpleasant here. Be nice if that cell near Seymor made it over the ranges, and cooled it off a bit here. Humidity will soar, but at least the AC will keep that under control.

[Tassiedave]

Quite unusual scenario, Hobart 35 at the moment (39 yesterday) and heading upwards, usually if it climbs above 35 in Tassie places like Mildura and Horsham are well over 40 but they are nowhere near when I just checked.

[Alexia]

We have had 8mm rain already . It is quiet cool 18.7C and Humidity 84%

[Rhino]

Well lets bloody well hope GFS has lost the plot, I know alot of people were saying the same thing around the 10th of jan 2011and we all knew how that turned out, I ended up with a foot of water through my house and all fences knocked over and out of home for 7 months. GFS has been bringing that band of heavy rainfall south over the last few runs so will see, hopefully will move back nth, although won't be good for nsw of course. Flood watch out for most of vic and even mentions 100mm falls so will be big for some and there will be localised damage unfortunatly imo.

Rhino.

[johnno]

As I was saying earlier before my post got deleted.. Keep an eye on 18z GFS regardless if it happens or not for this week... The Potential is there

[johnno]

Rhino those falls will happen its just a question of whether it will be just in NSW and SA or Victoria as well. EC had 125mm last night for Mildura between Monday and Thursday so interms of rainfall I dont think its way off the mark GFS as it does better with storms set up as well hence the more rainfall it usually adds on.. This type of rainfall will happen in SE Australia over the coming week its just a question exactly where

[Rhino]

Yeah johnno looks like it will somewhere, as long as the system does'nt move further south I'd be happy but having been there and done that would feel for areas that would get those massive falls and the probs associated with that and GFS was the first model from memory that picked up that massive rainfall early last year. Might have to look at some posts from around that time last year to confirm and see what the setup was like.

Rhino.

[Mikew]

Just came back from a swim in the Bay
The Water is really warm at 23 C
Nearly fell off my chair with that GFS latest
Melbourne just cannot cope if we get that sort of rain

[johnno]

Yep was also the first model to pick up this event, we will keep a close eye on it and as much as I want some good rainfall down here 20-30-40mm I rather we didn't get 200mm and stays over the border thanks