Whoa! Really excited about this event. The national loop radar is looking fantastic tonight where you can clearly see the wrap into the intensifying low.
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The characteristic comma formation from the wrapping cloud and good organization. The BOM 4 day synoptic predicting the pressure of that low will drop to a
whopping 967 hpascals ..
at 10am sunday morning n/west of tasmania. The western quadrant of 'tassie' will be diabolical on sunday! ( weather watch)
WATL wind forecast is indicating we will experience the outer periphery of this low with a wind change and front( north south alignment) in the west of the state on Saturday at 4pm.( prime storm time l believe)around the Dunolly longitude at 4pm. At that time WATL wind indicating a trough to the east at the same time.
Also indicating some strong westerlies in the western quadrant of the state on sunday 4pm
but especially and more so for the southern coastal parts also at 4pm. So hold on to your hats southerners!! ( 60km/hr wind.. plus gusts)
As the low is strong and has full rotation there should be a steady supply of rain bands emanating from its clockwise rotation. Sunday looking the best for maximum effect.
The eastern quadrant seems to have the best of the troughy area, whereas Western quadrant seem to have the best effect from rainbands and cyclonic low from the spiralling intensifying low
BOM forecast explorer is not prepared to go above 50mm rain max( possible higher totals)in a few isolated areas mainly in the middle quadrant of VIC.
I will be very surprised if this cyclonic mid latitude low doesn't do some serious damage somewhere.
A center of 967hpascals is not an ordinary low. It is a very dangerous low. Glad it is predicted to keep out at sea and moving away. Phew!
I still can't believe that..
967 hpascals!!!
The nasty tail all ready well defined in the bight and things are only beginning. I believe when they have tails like that , then they mean business..
Going to be a GREAT weather watch.