The forecast rain from BOM indicates very little for the west ( 0 to 5mm) and best totals in the east of state ( 15 to 25mm)
The trough is only around 1008 hpascals on Sunday
However there could be a few surprises that could produce some higher totals
A small fast moving low across all of VIC , commencing in the west of the state xmas morning 4.00am and over Melbourne by 10.00am and gippsland and east of the state by 4pm
Basically a low developing and dissolving over Vic in one day. That should give
all of vic At least 20mm
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Also some moisture infeed from TS/TC in the Tasman should give some boost to moisture infeed and warmer air mass from the north pushing down over the border and into the southern quadrant of Vic
and
arriving and converging from the south, a cool moist flow from southern ocean feeding into the tiny low over Vic.
The convergence of those two air masses should produce some good fireworks, like a cold front type setup with a curve( low)
So if under fast moving thunderstorms another 30mm
Think l like rain for all of the state 20mm across the board and extra 30mm for those in line of storms .
Actually l would have thought more ?
Storms for everyone..Any way that my thoughts.
WE are camping out in a 2 man tent over this period.LOL. Melbourne.. LOL
Have a merry christmas all..
I will try to eat christmas dinner with family in Langwarrin,, without sneaking off to check radar.. LOL
I must remember to tell my sister who is hosting ,to have the smorgasbord inside.
30 people inside could be interesting.
Storms and all.