Victoria: Upper low pressure system - 25th-27th Nov 2011

[Karl Lijnders]

Boring hot weather is not what we are going to get for the forseeable furture I am afraid.

Widespread rain and thunder to develop from the north Thursday night and into Friday. Could be some thunderstorms develop Thursday ahead of the rainfall but looking good for 50-100mm over C and E areas in the coming week. Moderate to major flooding in the NE catchments and a flash flooding risk across northern and central areas on Saturday morning.

Very humid with light winds as well which will eventually turn onshore later in the weekend clearing rain eastwards. But another solid event shapes up again this time next week.

Back from a week up north with high humidity and plenty of big dumping thunderstorms. I again have brought you back the humidity.

Good to be back

[aussiestormfreak]

Yeah thanks Karl... I really don't like hot, dry weather because I live in a very high-risk bushfire area (the Dandenong Ranges), and although we haven't had any significant fires for a while, the events of 2002-2003, 2006-2007 and 2009 remain very fresh in my memory, and because of that, I get frightened whenever we have hot, dry weather now

A humid period with heavy rain and thunderstorms from up north sounds a lot better, partly because we need more water for Melbourne's catchments

[Lily]

Moderate to major flooding in the NE catchments and a flash flooding risk across northern and central areas on Saturday morning.

Good to be back

So cricket for the young bloke on Saturday morning's not looking too flash? This is not good news!!! Good to have you back, Karl

Adon, really hoping you dodge the bullet on this one, shall cross my fingers for you (and for everyone else up there)

[Karl Lijnders]

Thanks Lily! Yeah looking a little damp for cricket this weekend. Should be a washout at this time.

Anthony - you should probably at most pick up 15mm with the heavier falls generally east and south of your area. Though will watch closely.

[HarleyB]

Geeze, I hope the cricket season doesn't turn into what last year's was like, nightmare. But will be good to possibly return to the kind of conditions of last year here.

[eddie]

So cricket for the young bloke on Saturday morning's not looking too flash? This is not good news!!! Good to have you back, Karl

Adon, really hoping you dodge the bullet on this one, shall cross my fingers for you (and for everyone else up there)

Yeah not good at all, where did this bloody system come from? Couldnt believe it when told last night they were forecasting rain for Saturday, give us a break!

[Anthony Violi]

Eddie i posted in the old thread on Sunday about this scenario, which at the time had a fine forecast for 7 days!

Looking very good again, widespread heavy rain and given an upper low is in the mix, could be an extraordinary event.

And will as Karl said cause carnage through the dams and catchments as they are all up to the brim.

[Astronomer]

BOM now predicting rain, Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Another weekend shot

[crikey]

Update of wind forecast map
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
indicating
FRIDAY 25th Nov 10.00am.to 4pm . a low evident in the N/west corner of VIC and extends to include all of the western quadrant of Vic.
.Also at 4pm to 10pm this Friday some strong easterlies flowing across the southern coastline as wind stream wraps into the low

FRIDAY 10pm most of VIC within a low pressure area.Light wind inland but more blustery conditions still on the southern coastline

SATURDAY 26th Nov 4.00am to 10.00am That low still centered in the western quadrant of VIC
The low centered in the west quadrant( Mallee. Wimmera, S/west) stays there for about.... 24 hrs..

SATURDAY 4pm the low is centered over Melbourne but quickly moves east into eastern quadrant of Vic and by 10pm the low is centered out at sea off the coast of 'gippy
-------------------------------------------------------

AND SOME MORE TO COME

MONDAY 28th Nov 4pm
a front-line is evident right along the VIC /SA borderline on a north south alignment with wind changing from North to N/West- west

Monday 10pm a trough area appears to be entering the state from the west and looks to hang around that area for awhile.
Its still there on Tuesday morning at 10.00am
So that is a total of 18 hrs the western quadrant is under another area of low presssure.

Tuesday 4 pm the trough is now in the east of the state, additionally N/westerlies from a clockwise flow coming into the west of the state are associated with a low pressure area associated with a low pressure area in SA approaching Vic
Tuesdays looking a little troughy .

Keep in mind The Monday / Tuesday wind stream forecast is a long way out and thi swind forecast map will update before then
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

. However the general prognosis is for a predominate low pressure influence from Friday to at least next tuesday that being 5 days

It would seem the western quadrant of the state spends most of this time in the lower pressure area ,or the best bits of it anyway, from what l can see.

I am optimistic for some good rain totals for our area in Dunolly and expect to fill the water tank.. Reckon in Dunolly we will have min 50mm + in the gauge from this Friday to next Tuesday
Yeah reckon Western quadrant will do best this coming week. followed closely by Melbourne and suburbs as the low positions itself over BOM Regional office on saturday afternoon.

[sparra]

Yeah...bugger...where was this system in September when we needed it Our 2 headers are madly stripping away but won't get a lot more done now b4 this event...oh well....

[Supercellimpact]

Latest GFS is on this now with 100mm in places in eastern Vic, but leaves western Vic with 10- 25mm.

[droughtbreaker]

OCF has about 20-50mm for central. It's a major system but at this time of year big lows like this are not uncommon and they usually cause persistent moderate rain and heavy at times. It is looking like another significantly wet November for large parts of the state. A strong follow up front is likely at the end of the month which will cause storms and more areas of heavy rain if it comes off.

With 100mm looking rather likely for November here we are really seeing a return to the consistently wet and humid conditions that typified spring/summer of last year. I don't think we will see the same carnage this summer, but it is looking like a rather damp period again. The soil moisture is very high over SE Australia atm and it may hold through summer setting us up beautifully for next year.

There is a lot of lush green growth around atm, more than what you would normally expect coming into summer. The paddocks around here are still green and the gardens, lawns, bush and forests are looking magnificent.

[aussiestormfreak]

Yeah, with La Nina firing up again in the Pacific Ocean it certainly looks like we're in for another soggy summer period

The downside of all this rain is that if it suddenly stops and we get severe heatwaves (as what happened during the 2008-2009 summer prior to the Black Saturday Bushfires), all the moisture pretty much evaporates and the lush vegetation quickly becomes dangerous fuel, not good... which is why even last summer I was nervous whenever the temperature soared and humidity levels plummetted

However, if the hot spells this summer are more likely to be humid than dry, and fuel not bushfires but torrential rain and spectacular thunderstorms then I'll be very, very happy

Well I was initially preparing myself for a nice, warm, sunny weekend lol. When I heard it might end up being wet I had my doubts at first... now I'm bracing myself for a possible severe weather event! Such is the climate of Victoria, gotta love it

[Astronomer]

The la Nina pattern from last year is continuing,heat waves in Perth , downpours here.
It is also green here, usually the grass heads up around cup weekend then browns off, the ride on mower is getting a workout here every week still.

As for rainfall totals, a new record if we get over 50 mm , will be the best yearly total since I moved here in 2003.... And still a month to go.

Will watch with interest the prognostications that go on here, 90% of the time you are bang on, so keep it up.

[adon]

However, if the hot spells this summer are more likely to be humid than dry, and fuel not bushfires but torrential rain and spectacular thunderstorms then I'll be very, very happy

I would not be betting money on a summer without a very bad fire day this year. Last year we also had the indian ocean pumping moisture down and then inland was already very wet by now. It is not the same this year even though they have had rain. Not the same amount of moisture coming down this year so I would be keeping in mind that a NW wind will still be very hot and dry and potentially dangerous. That being said there is still the same stupid headlines going around whenever it gets hot. Last weeks "hot" day was by no means unseasonalbly hot up here and yet all we heard was "temps soaring" all day on the news.... It was 37c up here......very normal heat for this late in the year and welcomed by every farmer in the district(although the rain afterwards not so much!)

I suppose the message should be be aware of conditions and dont assume that is it fine. All on this forum keep a watch for weather so preaching to the wrong crowd but things can get very dry very quick and there is a massive amount of fuel to burn even up in the mallee

[Supercellimpact]

Once the Wet season in the North starts gettin going more moisture will advect south and enhace any rain events Adon.

[eegs]

I'm inclined to agree with you SCI. I'm in Emerald this week hoping everything falls south of us and so far that's been the case. But this time last year our mareeba property had already had 250mm of rain before the "proper" wet. Once it starts this year I feel our systems will build in size again in line with available moisture.

[Karl Lijnders]

Yeah we are about 2-3 weeks away from the monsoon commencing across the north so any rain coming through from the NT/QLD/WA is a bonus at this time and indicative of what is to come. I am expecting major flooding this summer across VIC.

In the short term, models are holding some very large falls still for C and E VIC with 50-100mm likely and heavier falls on the ranges. Another follow up trough next week likely to deliver more storms and then further colder rainier weather.

Should be a very wet week across SE Australia.

[stratospear]

Upper Low is really starting to spin up over the Flinders Ranges in SA atm:
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/wv_sat.htm ... art=&stop=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Cloud is also thickening up quickly over Southern NSW as moisture is sucked in from the East.

[Jake Smethurst]

BoM just coming through with the flood watches now:

Flood Watch for West and South Gippsland (Latrobe, Thomson, Macalister and Avon Catchments and South Gippsland Basin)

Issued at 3:31 pm EDT on Thursday 24 November 2011

A high pressure system south of the Bight extends a ridge across Tasmania while a low pressure trough will develop today over western New South Wales. The ridge will remain to the south of Victoria on Friday as the trough over New South Wales develops a low pressure centre near northwestern Victoria. The low will move across Victoria Saturday to be located near eastern Bass Strait by Saturday night. The low will then move quickly across the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday.

Areas of rain have been forecast for West and South Gippsland from early Saturday through to Sunday. Catchment wide rainfall totals of 50mm have been forecast with higher totals possible on the ranges.

The forecast rainfall combined with nearly saturated catchments is expected to cause significant stream rises with the possibility of minor flooding developing over the West and South Gippsland catchments during Saturday.

The Bureau is monitoring the situation and will issue catchment specific warnings if and when required.

Flood Watch For Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra, Dandenong And Bunyip)

Issued at 3:42 pm EDT on Thursday 24 November 2011

A high pressure system south of the Bight extends a ridge across Tasmania while a low pressure trough will develop today over western New South Wales. The ridge will remain to the south of Victoria on Friday as the trough over New South Wales develops a low pressure centre near northwestern Victoria. The low will move across Victoria Saturday to be located near eastern Bass Strait by Saturday night. The low will then move quickly across the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday.

Areas of rain have been forecast for the Greater Melbourne Catchments from early Saturday through to Sunday. Catchment wide rainfall totals of 50mm have been forecast with higher totals possible on the ranges.

The forecast rainfall combined with nearly saturated catchments is expected to cause significant stream rises in the Greater Melbourne catchments with the possibility of minor flooding developing over the Yarra, Dandenong and Bunyip catchments during Saturday.

The Bureau of Meteorology in conjunction with Melbourne Water are monitoring the situation.

Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa, Ovens and King Catchments)

Issued at 3:31 pm EDT on Thursday 24 November 2011

A high pressure system south of the Bight extends a ridge across Tasmania while a low pressure trough will develop today over western New South Wales. The ridge will remain to the south of Victoria on Friday as the trough over New South Wales develops a low pressure centre near northwestern Victoria. The low will move across Victoria Saturday to be located near eastern Bass Strait by Saturday night. The low will then move quickly across the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday.

Rainfall totals of 10-20mm have been forecast for the North East catchments on Friday, however widespread rain with heavy falls are forecast for Saturday with with rainfall totals ranging from 20 to 50 mm. Higher isolated totals are possible on the ranges.

The forecast rainfall is expected to cause stream rises with the possibility of minor flooding developing in the North East catchments from Saturday.

The Bureau is monitoring the situation and will issue catchment specific warings if and when required.