Victoria: Trough/Front - Storms and rain - 17th -19th Nov

[Meso]

Forecast was well off for here today, supposed to get to 27 and we are currently on 22 with no signs of getting any warmer.

Glad I didn't waste my time driving up to the NE, storms look fairly average up there. No severe warnings.

[stormygirl]

Definitely can confirm about 4 or so rumbles around 11ish this morning as my Daughter was doing her ballet exam! That's now 6 thunderdays for November!

9mm over night and a further 7.5mm since 9am this morning.

Currently 17.3C/14.2C 82%

[crikey]

Channel seven liveTV.. Sandown( near dandenong on the weather radar I think on 64km radar) car races in Melbourne south east suburbs. Just insane. Pouring down ..poor visibility and they are racing in that. Quite a spectacle.Gobsmacked they can drive in that!
EDIT
On channel 7 news tonight at 6pm report of storm damage in Melbourne will be on the news. "quote: residents heard a train coming" ( suspect tornadic activity)

[Petethemoskeet]

Vic Bom very late with the latest forecasts.Anyway had a few heavy showers in the last hour or so .Looks like most of the rain is focused just south of us.Maybe we'll get some good rain overnight as the trough moves east.

[Alexia]

Just .5mm rain so far one little shower, Can hear thunder around but missing us so far,

[Blackie]

15 mm and climbing here at Mansfield since it started this morning hasn't stopped since about 11. Have exceeded monthly average here now.

[aussiestormfreak]

Amazing how much can change in the space of about 2 hours... I had a nap not long ago and the rain has really picked up across Melbourne since then!

Maybe we'll get a stray overnight thunderstorm or two before this whole rainband gets pushed out by the incoming cold front?

[jmw2207]

nice heavy downpour just passed through. Rain rate would've been pretty high. Tank inflow couldn't handle it.....

[Poncho]

Channel seven liveTV.. Sandown( near dandenong on the weather radar I think on 64km radar) car races in Melbourne south east suburbs. Just insane. Pouring down ..poor visibility and they are racing in that. Quite a spectacle.Gobsmacked they can drive in that!
EDIT
On channel 7 news tonight at 6pm report of storm damage in Melbourne will be on the news. "quote: residents heard a train coming" ( suspect tornadic activity)

Hi crikey - I'm here in glen iris which is neighboring camberwell.. Damage is more in line with microburst around here as is wide spread rather than any tornadic activity. Big branches + trees down all over the place but hardly any property damage.

[Jake Smethurst]

Will update forecasts shortly. Currently 14 degrees here, coldest at this time of day in a while.

[Jake Smethurst]

Well I left to go about 40 minutes northwards yesterday afternoon as I was watching that massive line of thunderstorms approach the coastline. If I had any choice, I would have gone to Port Campbell or something locally to see the lightning over the ocean, but I had another event on. Anyway, we did end up getting quite a nice lightning display at the party last night, and then again around midnight, and then again around 4am. Quite heavy rain at times too which locally flooded a few streets, however here at home, only 6.8mm, must have been in the gap or something. Very nice event, still going for northeast parts.

[Jayman]

Something suss south of Shepparton?

[Meso]

Something suss south of Shepparton?

??

[Jayman]

That big arc in the rainband that was there when I posted. Looked cool, but I guess was just nothing.

[aussiestormfreak]

Wish I was up in Corryong right now... looks like a nice little thunderstorm is currently moving through the Upper Murray region

[Alexia]

Thunderstorms moved through very quickly only another 2mm rain hoping for more during the night.

[Anthony Violi]

Well what another excellent system, most models struggled with this one as totals were a lot higher than predicted. Just 6 hours out Norwegian went for 5mm, we ended up with 24mm. And still a few more mm this arvo as the front finally moves through.

A large portion of central Vic recived 30mm+ with Healesville recieving over 50mm, so the heaviest rain was over the Yarra Ranges, Mt Baw baw another 28 overnight for a total of 47mm, which will run straight into the Thompson. So the dams cop another good soaking and another decent week of run off with more today and another front through on Tuesday.

I think we are about 2 weeks away now from our set up of a very large scale rain event, moisture is building over the interior and most importantly the East Coast retrograding back west into the interior. Its this set up to keep an eye on, if the moisture positions itself in just the right spot it will be dragged into a cold pool and form a large cradled cut off. Models starting to flirt with the set up, but i think we are still a couple of weeks away. However the continous mid level troughs at our latitudes is making the possibility get better every day, worth keeping an eye on.

All the models have a very large upper trough moving towards Wa at the end of the sequence, this could be the catalust to begin the set up.

[Gordon]

23 mm for us which brings us to (drum roll....) 1001.5 mm ytd! Only the second time we've cracked the big 1 metre in our 15 years here, the only other time being last year for 1078 mm. Well over a month to get the 77 mm needed to beat that, so we're in with a chance.

[Geoff]

22mm for us, takes our MTD to 107mm, and YTD to 1452mm
Hopefully a few fine days next week to dry out a bit, but I reckon Anthony is right, something is brewing on the horizon.

[daviescr]

Magnificent event for sure - was expecting 5-10mm, ended up with 18mm in the last 36hrs, MTD is 76.5mm

The awesome news is we have just topped 1001.5mm now for the year, amazing considering we were supposed to be slipping back into 'dryer times'. No wonder my grass is really the Warranwood Swamp ;p