Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[Anthony Violi]

Yes Geoff, i did notice GFS extended 2 days ago was starting to get excited, just looking at the models and all of them show Dps around 18-20 for most of the country next week. This means we can expect a fairly big event if it comes off, will have to wait a couple more runs to see how it pans out but it looks very good at this stage.

[Geoff]

My goodness me!!!

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[johnno]

Well its my Birthday the day after that the 11th so that would be an awesome present Geoff

[Geoff]

Fingers and toes crossed for you Johnno!

[Jake Smethurst]

Well EC is hinting at another couple of days of rainy/thundery weather from about next Wednesday. GFS not so keen though. Worth to keep an eye on it all.

[eegs]

Nice one Jake. This thread was awesome last year when new events kept lining up one after the after - every 7-10 days. Starting to look like a repeat for this year as well.

[johnno]

Have to say 168 hrs out and ACCESS was very close to the mark not sure why some people continue to put this model down its a hell of alot better than GASP and LAPS

Heres what fell the past 24 hours compare that to ACCESS up top a week ago..

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Geoff]

Well its my Birthday the day after that the 11th so that would be an awesome present

OK, so it was a day earlier than forecast, but still a very nice early birthday pressie for you Johnno! Hope you have a good one!

[johnno]

Cheers Geoff

Looks like small to moderate chance of isolated storms (more garden variety than what we saw yesterday) with the change this Sunday and possibily more of a chance next Thursday going by EC. GFS also going for some action in a weeks time. I'm also keeping an eye at EC's last few runs towards Saturday/Sunday week as its been consistent with cold air getting flung Northwards towards the Southern WA Coast something to watch perhaps in what that may do for SE OZ couple of days after that.

[Meso]

Be good if the next event could land on a weekend!

[johnno]

Yes that be nice for everyone Meso. Highest Temp for Melbourne this Spring so far 30.3c and we are in the 2nd week of November and nothing to overly hot going by the models the next 7-10 days, last Year we copped a 30.7c on the 11th of November and 31.0c on the 12th November.. No chance of that happening this Year.. So even though we had a strong La Nina last Spring and all that rain we still managed to get a hotter temp last Spring in Melbourne earlier than this Spring.

[Jayman]

Late next week starting to look interesting with both EC and GFC hinting at something.

[Supercellimpact]

Yeah Weatherzone has 20-40mm down for Thursday, so there indicating something big. Looks like we might be heading back into the 2 week event cycle like last spring, but less intense. Also I read on the weatherchannel's website and they said the la Nina conditions have strengthened slightly in the last 2 weeks and the positive OD has decreased.

Latest ENSO disscussion from BOM :http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Jake Smethurst]

Yes well as Jayman mentioned, models are firming on something developing around Thursday at this stage. EC and GFS both showing some interest but are quite variable in what scenarios they produce. Worth to keep an eye on things for then. First we have to get through a couple of troughs though - one on Sunday entering the west during the afternoon and evening, should produce some shower activity through most parts ahead of it, with the risk for thunderstorms in the western districts, although cloud will be a problem i suspect. Another trough Tuesday but this will be weaker and more shallow, not really delivering much inland, just isolated showers to the south.

[Ken]

The 4-week forecasts from the EC ensemble are currently suggesting moderate probabilities of a fairly big cool signal spreading across much of the continent later this month (between about the 21st and 27th), particularly into southwestern parts of SE Australia.

The probabilities for enhanced rainfall aren't quite as confident however.

[Anthony Violi]

Well it continues...and is going to get worse. A repeat of last year is firming, just not quite the totals but i dont think it should be ruled out.

We will get another very large event next week, followed by the possibility of snow on the Alps.

But the real danger begins in a month, once the patterns start the easterly dips and cradling of the cut offs, we are going to see enormous systems again, enhanced by the cooling of the globe and the strengthening of the troughs, that are getting worse as we go on.

At this stage still happy with my forecast i made 18 months ago until 2013, marginal as to what happens from there at this point. But we will have 100% water, and many more natural disasters by then.

[Dc449]

Hmmm just hope the weather is good for the presidents cup!

[Robbo]

Anyone interested to know,that in District 15,Fire Restrictions will commence on January 10th 2012....[at this stage].
Cheers

[droughtbreaker]

It's the same for region 14 (my area).

That's extremely late. Basically you can still burn off right until the middle of summer (if it is not a TFB day). Last year it was the 20th December from what I can gather and that was in the midst of the period of extreme rainfall. The difference this year is that the grass in the paddocks is currently green and vigorously growing whereas last year at the same time it was all dying off despite the high rainfall. If the grasslands have major curing this year it will be much later into summer than many of the scaremongers would like us to believe.

The forests here are currently extremely damp for this time of year with a lot of vigorous understorey growth of soft leaved, fire retardant plants like the Musk Daisy bush, Austral Mulberry etc. It will take a huge effort to dry them out during another La Nina summer.

With regards to the overkill every year led by the media and abetted by the CFA and state government- whilst I understand how important it is to get the message across to the community that the bushfire threat is very real and of the utmost seriousness and an ongoing campaign is required to advise and educate the public of the issues and what action needs to be taken during the bushfire season- IMHO the scaremongering that goes on is counter-productive and leads to a 'boy that cried wolf' situation when year after year the threat that it will be 'the worst fire season ever' doesn't eventuate.

When we do get a Black Saturday situation, the same authorities that hype up the threat end up under performing in terms of their management of the crisis (leading indirectly to an unnecessary increase in deaths), not the volunteer firefighters who do an incredible job, but certainly the administration and authorities and especially the state government whoever they may be (Labor/Liberal).

Anyway, with regards to the potential for another major event, well there is plenty over the coming 10 days to look at. Thursday looks like some rain around and then next weekend could see a really big event but it is still one to watch at this stage.

[Meso]

Liking the looks of this and on a weekend too! Just hope it can hold, been hinting at it for a few runs, so definetly something to keep an eye on!