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Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th November

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Jake Smethurst
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Very intense thunderstorms!! I just made it home too after sitting my methods exam 2. What a way to celebrate having no more methods! :D

As I was driving home I noticed a Cb's stretching all the way from the coast towards the northwest, all growing in size as it met the moist conditions and was being forced up by the cold front. An amazing wall cloud ahead of the line too, beautiful to look at, and was nearly touching the ground too! As I was getting closer to home I could start to see some of the CG's in the distance. So, as the system came through, lightning every couple of seconds, many flangs, and the rain, it was very intense, dropped about 12mm in 12 minutes here at home - the gutters were overflowing and the roads were flooded, quite amazing. As the wall cloud come over, the wind suddenly shifted to the southwest and was really strong. Im not sure if it was up to the range of 90 km/h or not, but it just about knocked me over!! So right now, I still hear distant thunder, but the thunderstorm line as moved more eastwards away and we are left in a southwesterly flow, with the temperature at 18 degrees, after reaching 26 degrees earlier. Amazing!!

EDIT: The storms in a line will stretch further east this afternoon into Melbourne most likely towards 5pm.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by greensyboy »

Starting to look pretty crazy out there.

Check out the Adelaide radar:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR642.loop.shtml#skip

Just went out, local BOM weather station has Viewbank at 27C/18C. I can't see any reason why the temperature wouldn't go up another degree or two, Sun is still high in the sky. Will be interesting to see how the high winds affect things.

I'm thinking that late this arvo / tonight is going to make up for yesterday in spades.

EDIT: What are the chances of Supercells developing in this environment?
Last edited by greensyboy on Wed Nov 09, 2011 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by Nick Sykes »

Nice Jake, Cape Otway just had a gust to 100km with the change. Some nice cells in that line. Hoping something gets going on the northern end to give Melbourne a nice show later.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by crikey »

Reports from locals coming in on ABC radio.
A lady in Port fairy reported 64mm of rain in 10 minutes and plants flattened in 100km hr gusts. She said it got so dark the streets lights came on.
However BOM obs reported 18mm . So if your under the right cloud. :o
Latest warning area. ABC radio has just made a severe weather warning update. Including here around Maryborough and Ballarat
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by solcampbell »

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Central, Wimmera and parts of the Mallee, South West, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:09 pm Wednesday, 9 November 2011.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Ballarat, Maryborough, Geelong, Melbourne and Bacchus Marsh.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in the North East district and the warning for this district is CANCELLED.

Wind gusts to 105km/h and 14mm of rain in 10 minutes was recorded in Port Fairy this afternoon associated with a thunderstorm.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by johnno »

I think the storms will hit the Western suburbs around 6pm and be right through Melbourne by 8pm. The cold front off the Sw Coast will catch up to the storm line and enhance it into an area of thundery rain Tonight before clearing by Midnight in the Melb area.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by TheFishmanAU »

It does look like a force field if you look at the Victorian wide radar. There is one line pushing south and one line pushing east it does look like it will miss the central. I'm hoping both will merge like Sydney had yesterday if we are lucky.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by solcampbell »

30/17 down here and starting to look ominous....
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by stratospear »

Looks nasty near Pinnaroo in South Australia just across the border atm. We'll probably have to wait a while I think.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Just updated the TS Chart: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... mchart.htm

I wouldnt worry if you are in Melbourne, its highly likely that the current line of thunderstorms stretching from South Australia to Cape Otway will move over you guys tonight. I suspect by about 5-6pm it will be brushing through the western areas and across most areas by 8pm, as John says. Watch out for damaging winds and flash flooding mainly, but large hail also a risk. All I will say ... have FUN!! :D
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by sparra »

Sky looks absolutely amazing here......I haven't seen it this black since Dec 7th 2010.....hoping they are going to skirt us a bit as we really don't want those storms on our crops but not sure....have to wait and see....but our friends a bit further south...I don't like their chances.
The wind has gone and it is eerily still.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by crikey »

SES reporting on ABC news some houses damaged and one house had the roof completely ripped off in Bellbridge wherever that is?
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by Jake Smethurst »

crikey » Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:03 pm wrote:
crikey wrote:SES reporting on ABC news some houses damaged and one house had the roof completely ripped off in Bellbridge wherever that is?
Its up near the Murray, just east of Albury.

Heavy rain here again with an isolated cell well behind the main band.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by sparra »

Hmmm...its here and I'm turning the computer off now. Good luck all...it is Pour down!!!!
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by stratospear »

Cumulus towers really taking off skyward now.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by flatcam »

Wow, this is going to be huge! The storms in Adelaide at the moment are really flaring up with black cores. I'm really exited about what this evening may bring, but I'm also slightly worried at what could happen. Should definately be a night of interesting sights though - that's for sure!

Good luck to all this evening :D

Cheers, Cam
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by mick »

I think 9pm for me.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Can see that affect to the north Strato. The cu is consolidating a tad ahead of the main line, but it is really going to be on that trough that the weather will take place. Certainly going to see wild storms in Melbourne from 5:30pm onwards in the W suburbs spreading into the CBD between 6-7pm and out east there after. Chance of seeing thunderstorms stalling and rainfall totals of 50mm in an hour not impossible along with winds to 130kmh. Hail is lower threat but will be watched.
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by Skywalker »

Well, I'm off for the trip home. Looks like I'll get there well before anything hits. :)
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Re: Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th Novemb

Post by Duckey »

Baro's now dropped to 1000 hPa and I have the pressure headache to go with it - anyone else get these? Sun is beaming down and is actually very strong, just went for a walk and it's very uncomfortable. Am watching the stuff coming in from the West with interest - hope it doesn't all fall apart by the time it gets to the Eastern 'burbs... ;)
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