Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th November

[Pane]

G'day

Can see the clearing on the national cloud loop, going to get real muggy here when that sun gets out!

Cheers

[Rhino]

Holy crap I hope these people writing things off now will eat there words come 5pm, going to be some beasts of storms and rain later. As I said in earlier post the serious stuff was always due this arvo and evening. Don't worry about that stuff to the east thats big girls blouse stuff compared to whats to come later. Anyone chasing could look at GFS latest stormcast. 5pm LI -9 and 2800 CAPE around SE Wimmera all heading SE.

Rhino.

[sparra]

Holy crap I hope these people writing things off now will eat there words come 5pm, going to be some beasts of storms and rain later. As I said in earlier post the serious stuff was always due this arvo and evening. Don't worry about that stuff to the east thats big girls blouse stuff compared to whats to come later. Anyone chasing could look at GFS latest stormcast. 5pm LI -9 and 2800 CAPE around SE Wimmera all heading SE.

Rhino.

Umm......I wasn't writing anything off Just pointing out that the WZ forecast for us was a but contradictory saying heavy rain and thunderstorms and a flood watch and then 60% of 1-5mm is all.....sorry!!!
I was pointing out the clear skies not to doubt anything was to happen but to let others know what was happening out here this morning as people were commenting on the clear skies being a good sign.

[ShaneEEEE]

25.4/17.1 in Hamilton as at 11am. That is warm and moist, just how we like it.

Temps in the west are generally around the 25c and DP's are around 17c. It is prime for a flogging this afternoon!

[Meso]

So are we thinking a big line coming across from the west?

If initiation can hold off til about 2 or 3 it should hit bendigo just in time for me to get out and have a look.

[TheFishmanAU]

I could smell failure yesterday. I feel a lot of rain coming but not totally sure about severe storms. BSCH had high LIs and CAPE but nothing eventuate.

I want to be proven wrong I want to eat my words because that means we finally get a severe storm the likes of February & March 2010.

There is an air of expectation, much like any AFL supporter can attest to, can turn to despair very quickly. Not pointing the finger as this might annoy people in a weather specific forum.

[Rhino]

No not having a go a you personally Sparra and I hope it did'nt come across like that. Just that we have systems like these from time to time and sometimes they work out and sometimes they don't, I think it will today. As for the models storms are always hard to model in to the forecasts and alot of the time it's a wait and see proposition who gets the 5mm predicted and who gets the 25mm 5km's down the road.

Rhino.

[rikjpool]

Sitting in castlemain at the moment. The back end of this cloud mass has a heap of low level cloud screaming along the ranges. Currently sitting under a crystal clear sky right now. And let me tell ya, this sun has some bite to it. Measure one job here then off to maryborrough for a couple of jobs.

[Rhino]

Some nice thick cumulus developing to my west as we speak, actually took me by surprise how good it looked.

Rhino.

[I_Love_Storms]

A smashing is what we will cop this Arvo. If looks Wintery in humid air watch out, hail may be on the cards, shows some significant cold air mixing into the humid airmass. Think we are in for something special and picturesque, clear sky out west, gonna get steamy and feel like a sauna. I'm expecting some scary cells, can't wait

[AUS_Twisted]

I could smell failure yesterday. I feel a lot of rain coming but not totally sure about severe storms. BSCH had high LIs and CAPE but nothing eventuate.

I want to be proven wrong I want to eat my words because that means we finally get a severe storm the likes of February & March 2010.

There is an air of expectation, much like any AFL supporter can attest to, can turn to despair very quickly. Not pointing the finger as this might annoy people in a weather specific forum.

Yeah but BSCH doesn't know if there will be cloud cover or not, a few more degrees from surface heating earlier could/would of made the difference

[Rhino]

Yeah different dynamics at work today, and plenty of sun, a good afternoon and evening it's going to be.

Rhino.

[I_Love_Storms]

Didn't have the clear air, we have it now and this:

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/image.php? ... i_vic_.png" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Rhino]

Well done ILS, now I have to clean my screen.

Rhino.

[Nick Sykes]

The 11.30am vis sat pic is in and already shows a cumulus field developing from about Swan Hill to Arrarat, could see cells pop up pretty soon.

Nick

[TheFishmanAU]

I have a good feeling there is something brewing. Mine is a visual thing. My inbuilt radar is saying we are going to get smashed around 3-4 pm.

[Skywalker]

A smashing is what we will cop this Arvo. If looks Wintery in humid air watch out, hail may be on the cards, shows some significant cold air mixing into the humid airmass. Think we are in for something special and picturesque, clear sky out west, gonna get steamy and feel like a sauna. I'm expecting some scary cells, can't wait

I really hope we don't get any large hailstones, my agaves out the front along with my maple look sensational right now. I want a storm but no hail stones thankyou. I'm not asking too much am I?

Blue skies appearing here now. I would say it will definately be on this afternoon.

[AUS_Twisted]

Nice and clear to the west here now. Might be able to get down to the bay or a local spot later, will see what happens

[Nick Sykes]

Some decent storms going up on Mt Gambier Radar now

Can see the blue sky approaching here in Caulfield.

Damn hard to study for exam today lol.

[TheFishmanAU]

Hello, Boys. Dinner's ON.

Looking at the Visible radar, it is going to exploded very soon.