Holy crap I hope these people writing things off now will eat there words come 5pm, going to be some beasts of storms and rain later. As I said in earlier post the serious stuff was always due this arvo and evening. Don't worry about that stuff to the east thats big girls blouse stuff compared to whats to come later. Anyone chasing could look at GFS latest stormcast. 5pm LI -9 and 2800 CAPE around SE Wimmera all heading SE.
Rhino wrote:Holy crap I hope these people writing things off now will eat there words come 5pm, going to be some beasts of storms and rain later. As I said in earlier post the serious stuff was always due this arvo and evening. Don't worry about that stuff to the east thats big girls blouse stuff compared to whats to come later. Anyone chasing could look at GFS latest stormcast. 5pm LI -9 and 2800 CAPE around SE Wimmera all heading SE.
Rhino.
Umm......I wasn't writing anything off Just pointing out that the WZ forecast for us was a but contradictory saying heavy rain and thunderstorms and a flood watch and then 60% of 1-5mm is all.....sorry!!!
I was pointing out the clear skies not to doubt anything was to happen but to let others know what was happening out here this morning as people were commenting on the clear skies being a good sign.
Last edited by sparra on Wed Nov 09, 2011 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
I could smell failure yesterday. I feel a lot of rain coming but not totally sure about severe storms. BSCH had high LIs and CAPE but nothing eventuate.
I want to be proven wrong I want to eat my words because that means we finally get a severe storm the likes of February & March 2010.
There is an air of expectation, much like any AFL supporter can attest to, can turn to despair very quickly. Not pointing the finger as this might annoy people in a weather specific forum.
No not having a go a you personally Sparra and I hope it did'nt come across like that. Just that we have systems like these from time to time and sometimes they work out and sometimes they don't, I think it will today. As for the models storms are always hard to model in to the forecasts and alot of the time it's a wait and see proposition who gets the 5mm predicted and who gets the 25mm 5km's down the road.
Sitting in castlemain at the moment. The back end of this cloud mass has a heap of low level cloud screaming along the ranges. Currently sitting under a crystal clear sky right now. And let me tell ya, this sun has some bite to it. Measure one job here then off to maryborrough for a couple of jobs.
I live in a world where I dont see to believe, but I believe to see...
A smashing is what we will cop this Arvo. If looks Wintery in humid air watch out, hail may be on the cards, shows some significant cold air mixing into the humid airmass. Think we are in for something special and picturesque, clear sky out west, gonna get steamy and feel like a sauna. I'm expecting some scary cells, can't wait
TheFishmanAU wrote:I could smell failure yesterday. I feel a lot of rain coming but not totally sure about severe storms. BSCH had high LIs and CAPE but nothing eventuate.
I want to be proven wrong I want to eat my words because that means we finally get a severe storm the likes of February & March 2010.
There is an air of expectation, much like any AFL supporter can attest to, can turn to despair very quickly. Not pointing the finger as this might annoy people in a weather specific forum.
Yeah but BSCH doesn't know if there will be cloud cover or not, a few more degrees from surface heating earlier could/would of made the difference
I_Love_Storms wrote:A smashing is what we will cop this Arvo. If looks Wintery in humid air watch out, hail may be on the cards, shows some significant cold air mixing into the humid airmass. Think we are in for something special and picturesque, clear sky out west, gonna get steamy and feel like a sauna. I'm expecting some scary cells, can't wait
I really hope we don't get any large hailstones, my agaves out the front along with my maple look sensational right now. I want a storm but no hail stones thankyou. I'm not asking too much am I?
Blue skies appearing here now. I would say it will definately be on this afternoon.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.