Vic: Unstable Warm Weather Sept 16th- 19th

3030WX · Post by **3030WX** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:24 pm

Nick Sykes » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:27 pm wrote:
Nick Sykes wrote: ... I have noticed that Melbourne often struggles to get going temp wise on northerly wind days, often reading lower than other sites while at the same time Avalon always seems very warm.

The western side of the bay is usually warmer than other suburbs, except in an easterly stream. In a NW'ly stream, Avalon (and Werribee) can be 2C warmer than Melbourne.

I_Love_Storms · Post by **I_Love_Storms** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:39 pm

Sky looking unstable out past springvale to sw. Mammatus and maybe some small cells trying to fire with what looks like a semi rain curtain (rain maybe not reaching the ground at this point)

crikey · Post by **crikey** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:41 pm

A S/West wind change is still well west around Ceduna at 12.30pm pm obs ..only just.
I like the clockwise pattern airstream over SA atm as seen on stormtracker and barom pressure has dropped in some parts . Coonawaara has dropped 3 hPascals in 3 hrs and some areas of SA.and S/west VIC
Nice little bend in that low pressure belt over SA.
The winds have increased along that Nwest line atm which would be characteristic of a coming change.
The trough area seems quite broad and slow moving?
Gee these NWesterlies are dry as a dead dingo' carcas. LOL
Mildura 4% rel Humidity atm. LOL
Can't believe all those models and soundings etc that have been presented can get it so wrong. and for that reason alone. Going to hold some belief. LOL
Only hope of moisture is from tonight on cooling and some S/west inflow on the change
Going to look for strong gradients in temp an RH on the change.
Those models saw something ,so keen to find out what it is. LOL
I am going to hold out for something? on a west/swest change which is a long way off atm.

crikey · Post by **crikey** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:46 pm

I_Love_Storms » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:39 pm wrote:
I_Love_Storms wrote:Sky looking unstable out past springvale to sw. Mammatus and maybe some small cells trying to fire with what looks like a semi rain curtain (rain maybe not reaching the ground at this point)

Portland currently 100% RH and pressure has dropped to 1005 hpascals
Warnambool 1004.hPascals
You would think any High RH areas bordering with very low RH boundaries could be interesting

I_Love_Storms · Post by **I_Love_Storms** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:05 pm

Mustn't much. Nothing on radar. Upper levels probably still quite cold though so this should help any instability

stratospear · Post by **stratospear** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:41 pm

25% RH here, but 50%RH just down the road at Redesdale. Looks like some convection in the mid-layers to our NW, but no sign of anything at nearer the surface.

I_Love_Storms · Post by **I_Love_Storms** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:58 pm

There's an absolute heap of mammatus over waverley at the moment

apocalypse · Post by **apocalypse** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:10 pm

DP went down for a bit, but now on the way up again, currently 22.7/11.3. Had some mammatus and virga go overhead not too long ago.

Harley34 · Post by **Harley34** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:32 pm

At what time are the first thunderstorm cells due near Melbourne?

James · Post by **James** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:37 pm

i dont see anything happening today...too dry

dopplerstu · Post by **dopplerstu** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:42 pm

Harley34 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 4:32 pm wrote:
Harley34 wrote:At what time are the first thunderstorm cells due near Melbourne?

Don't think they will

Harley34 · Post by **Harley34** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:52 pm

Yep i agree, but i won't count anything out yet.

Monday looking much better..

crikey · Post by **crikey** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 4:01 pm

30 % relative humidity at ground level and just had a little virga fall to the ground . In fact you can see the little trails of virga falling from some cloud and drying out well before ground level
very warm and dry here and little wind atm. Some cloud starting to darken and flatten out.
definitely no cumulus here though in in the Maryborough area 3.30pm

droughtbreaker · Post by **droughtbreaker** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:46 pm

Humidity is not too bad here, around 50% RH with 18C. It just looks like a very weak system for whatever reason. There is a lot of virga falling from middle level cloud, absolutely no convectional cloud though.

aussiestormfreak · Post by **aussiestormfreak** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:50 pm

Unless a thunderstorm develops after dark, I think this cold front is more or less a write-off, and I'll have to wait until Monday at the earliest.

AUS_Twisted · Post by **AUS_Twisted** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:56 pm

I wouldn't call it a right off yet, things are just getting going far SW. Seems like the front is a bit delayed.

Edit: Looking pretty weak far SW, will see what happens in the next 3 hours

flatcam · Post by **flatcam** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:46 pm

Some development starting to occur on the radar now. Hopefully it continues and something eventuates from it. The storm potential chart has some activity predicted for a bit later which is good.

The air was amazing before the sun went down. Really felt like Summer again!

Cheers, Cam

Edit: looking great around Cape Liptrap! Anyone see any sparks from it?

nafets · Post by **nafets** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:49 pm

Extremely unsettled dark sky here, matamus clods everywhere !

AUS_Twisted · Post by **AUS_Twisted** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:50 pm

CG on the cell to the SE, might be making a decision soon.

aussiestormfreak · Post by **aussiestormfreak** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:57 pm

No fair! That cell that AUS_Twisted mentioned is offshore near Wonthaggi, heading towards Wilsons Promontory

Hope it's a sign that more such thunderstorm activity may organise around Melbourne as the wind change pushes through...

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