AV, was just scrolling through some older posts trying to find something when I came across this one. For what it's worth, model runs from as far back as late 2009/start of 2010 were showing increasing probabilities of wetter than normal conditions starting to spread across Australia from late autumn through winter and onwards.Anthony Violi wrote: A couple of months from there, JAn 2010, something changed. I dont need to data, its a feeling i get when i step outside.
I had a feeling someone would take it the wrong way. If you read my post again, you'll see that I deliberately said "for what it's worth" to avoid this very misinterpretation that I was "sniping" at someone. My intention was simply to mention that there were also some other indications of a possible turn towards wetter conditions by winter. So now when someone predicts some scenario, should I not even mention any other forecasts that happen to agree with them? Please don't jump to conclusions and tell me to "lift my game" or imply I'm sniping at people as it sounds very condescending.Petros wrote:Sniping at others is hardly "looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Aus"???
The last 2 posts from a forecaster and a moderator as well!!?? - lift your games boys, trust your own predictions, and let the silent majority make their own judgement on who to follow, who to ignore or perhaps who is "on a roll".
Sorry to misinterpret you Ken and please keep up the super-quality posts! I'm just very keen to retain an evironment for all to post their ideas/opinions, (having been in other forums where people move on or hide after thinking they may have embarrassed themselves). All opinions are gold because it helps "single thought track people" like me to think outside the box.Ken » Mon May 02, 2011 6:52 pm wrote:Ken wrote:I had a feeling someone would take it the wrong way. If you read my post again, you'll see that I deliberately said "for what it's worth" to avoid this very misinterpretation that I was "sniping" at someone. My intention was simply to mention that there were also some other indications of a possible turn towards wetter conditions by winter. So now when someone predicts some scenario, should I not even mention any other forecasts that happen to agree with them? Please don't jump to conclusions and tell me to "lift my game" or imply I'm sniping at people as it sounds very condescending.Petros wrote:Sniping at others is hardly "looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Aus"???
The last 2 posts from a forecaster and a moderator as well!!?? - lift your games boys, trust your own predictions, and let the silent majority make their own judgement on who to follow, who to ignore or perhaps who is "on a roll".
Robbo: it's possible these days to get a fair idea of the likelihood of an El Nino, La Nina or neutral conditions some months in advance in certain situations (e.g. after autumn or when most of the modelling agrees with each other).
Hey Crikey Grain being pricey is what we want! haha we grow it and keep our own seed. As far as germination is concerned, the current temps are not really a worry but would not want to be much lower. It slows germination moreso than stopping it for Australian grain growers. Frost can damage new crops but the frosts are not really that bad up here atm as the soild temp is still high enough for frost not to be too severe. We do tend to stagger seeding but it is more for the other end of the growing season when frost can damage flowering crops.crikey » Mon May 09, 2011 9:43 pm wrote:crikey wrote:Hi Adon.; It must be hard being a farmer. Grain so costly l suppose.
The frosts seem in full force at the moment. What temperature is required for germination of seed?
We have a minor plague of mice here. Farmers concerned about sowing and mice eating. My neighbour mowed is acreage and said mice were running everywhere.
Do frosts destroy seeds or new shoots. It seems to be an early start to winter at the moment.
I don't know when the next low( ECL) is coming. Just have to check the synoptic chart and keep an eye open.
BOM are forecasting a generally average rainfall for autumn/ winter. Maybe you could stagger sowing to reduce risk. ( Maybe thats not practical?)
After years of drought l have forgotten what average rainfall is?
The week 2 outlooks from both EC ensemble and the North American Ensemble Forecast currently paint moderate to strong probabilities of colder than normal temperatures spreading across a lot of eastern, inland and northern Australia during the last week of May:Power Storm » Sun May 15, 2011 2:45 pm wrote:Power Storm wrote:Some models have been hinting at another unstable period of frontal activity towards the latter part of next week. GFS this morning indicating a weaker front to come through around Thursday followed by a stronger system on the weekend with potentially further major rainfall for at least southern/eastern Victoria. Something to watch as we get closer, models have been quite good lately, and also worth a note that winds could be a problem ahead of and following these systems.