VIC - trough/cold front, then cold pool - 30/4 - 4/5 2011

[Petros]

Been hanging out (like most others) for some "weather" to come along again after a boring break (imo).
GFS has spat this up......

[I_Love_Storms]

Boring is an understatement! This is ridiculous! Although enjoying relative warmth before we slip into a dreary cold winter!

[Petros]

Yeah, I took the kids waterskiing today would you believe, certainly not an indian summer (11-22C), but the sunny period after lunch got them all in the drink!

1033 hPa here atm.

[stratospear]

Latest GFS really amps up the size and depth of the cold pool for Monday night/Tuesday. 850T<0degC over the whole state. Potential for severe frosts for inland VIC next week. Access looking promising too, but EC keeps things mild and stable.

[Petros]

A downplay for conditions on the ground in latest runs, but the cold pool is still progged to make it over Vic....

[Karl Lijnders]

Hello everyone

I have returned from my trip to the NT for the last 8 days and really the dry has arrived there which means that the southern wet season is about to ramp up a bit over the coming 6 weeks.

Should see scattered falls of 20-30mm out of this event, band of rain tending to showers through next week with a drop in temps to levels not seen since last spring.

Frosts look a good chance to kick off post this event.

Nice weather presently though much colder than what I am used too.

[Rivergirl]

Welcome back Karl You'll get used to the temperature eventually

[stratospear]

Hmmmmm.... All the models now intensify the low in the Tasman Sea near NZ. This looks to be snuffing out our chances of the polar modified airmass reaching anywhere near us early next week... Just more High pressure ridge.

[Petros]

Hmmmmm.... All the models now intensify the low in the Tasman Sea near NZ. This looks to be snuffing out our chances of the polar modified airmass reaching anywhere near us early next week... Just more High pressure ridge.

Yep, spot on Strato.... all pushed down now with that big low out in the Tasman (just dont ask me to describe why!).

Amazing the difference in GFS this mornings run!!! ....


Geez, so WHEN will it rain (spent a lot of effort spreading topsoil at the Golf club this arvo, hate to see it all blow away if the rain stops arriving again!!).

[norfolk]

Looks to be some strong winds for NZ with that low.

[Twister]

WE have a cross pole ridge atm from the tasmen to the S pole then out over the E Atlantic ocean.
When these occur we get quite a stable and slow moving blocking pattern with weeks of High pressure and only Fronts lows coming through every week or 10 days this pattern looks to hold for another 2 weeks so dont epect much fun in the coming 2 weeks

Its so nice to have Sun and mild this time of year so i am loving it

Should be bit of rain about Sunday Monday 20mm in the SW about 10mm or less through these parts but still early days

Typical autumn really and shows how spoiled we have been since august last year

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Noticed Black Cockie screeches Yesterday morning, then saw one in the afternoon,
today have seen 2 heading over Ferntree Gully,
Sure means some rain.

[Petros]

Further downplay in the models early next week so 4-8mm accumulated by Thursday would be a bonus.

The week further out now looks interesting though!!!!

[Tassiedave]

What can you see developing Petros?

[crikey]

Shower band in southern SA approaching VIC, with some isolated moderate rain depending which cloud you are under.
Temp here is 23 deg c. Slight North breeze 60 % cloud cover.( mid level stratus. Moving very slowly from the west
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR641.loop.shtml#skip" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Travelling from NW to the SE. West Nth central might get some showers by 10-12 tonight.
Actually at border now. sat 30th 12.30pm
I b so happy for some showers just did some winter vege plantingsyesterday . Soils a bit dry.and short of water.

[droughtbreaker]

Pretty weak system ahead but it should deliver around 5mm, mainly to the ranges and SW coastal areas. A weak upper trough/LWT hanging around for a few days after that so the odd shower or two may develop from time to time.

[johnno]

Yeah I'm with Andrew I expect little from this system with 5mm being a good result around here looks to be patchy the rain.. I think Rain areas couple of days ago by the BOM was preety rich can't see that happening as the system mostly slides SE of us and also weakens but we should still see some precipitation from it. The SW should do the best with this system.

[johnno]

Be interesting to see what GFS spits out this afternoon UK and 3 day ACC have little for us 1-5mm for C Vic.

What a day Today though warm light winds and seabreezes perfect for this time of the Year.

[Petros]

Ripper day here, 22.9C hottest for weeks, fine and calm, great for local footy and golf.

1-5mm over next couple of days? - yeah I agree (although AccR) has conjured up closer to 10mm here, would love that if it came off! (put lots of sand out on the golf course in selected areas over last week).

[stratospear]

There is a chance of a bit of a cold burst later in the week. GFS has a front on Wednesday evening brushing the state with 0degC 850T. It's been looking stronger in each of the past 2 runs, so who knows?