Vic - Surface trough & Cut off low 19-25/3/11

[droughtbreaker]

EC has a massive cold outbreak mid next week and a period of really wintery weather very early in the season.

Very little from this system. Haven't checked the gauge since yesterday evening but probably only around 7 or 8mm all up. Dodged pretty much everything. Luckily this time we are in a situation where heavy rain is not needed rather than the drought years just passed. I am actually happy I didn't get any deluges here, just enough rain to keep the soil moist in the end.

March is the driest month of the year here and Autumn generally is pretty dry. Most Melbourne suburbs have higher March and April averages than here. We pick up from later May to August when the NW cloud bands start becoming a feature.

[Petros]

Increasingly cooling day here with snotty drizzly patches and not so strong WSW wind. 0.25mm since this time yest takes us to a 37mm system tally. Guess we will stay damp from here till next spring, baro nudging 1020 hPa so onto the next system!!

[mad*moo73]

Freezing here today, had school swimming carnival -.- in an outdoor pool!

That's always the way! My daughter had an althletics carnival yesterday in the rain - not fun!
I didn't notice the wind here but at my work in Beaumaris there were leaves all over the yard must have blown an almighty gale overnight there.

[Dane]

Ended up with 12mm's for the event here, was predicting 20 to 30mm's but we missed out on the big rain early in the week. MTD now 33mms' (ave 49mm's) YTD 295mm's. Very good falls in the east and also the West of the state, but a hard system to predict.

[johnno]

Looks like the reverse trend continues of Autumn perhaps being wetter than normal for Victoria this Year after last Year also being slightly wetter than normal after a general drying in recent decades

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/c ... 5&ave_yr=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Thats until 2010

Apart from the area Inner Melbourne, my area and Western suburbs and plains, small area in the Otways & Central Gippsland it looks like most other areas in Victoria the rainfall has been above the average for March which puts us in a good position of once again having a wetter than normal season even if April and May aren't to wet.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... th&area=vc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And with more 5-20mm rainfall to come Wednesday mostly across the South that will help to enhance rainfall further for Southern areas for March.

[johnno]

It also looks like being a cooler than month once again in regarding Maximum temps across Victoria for March after a mild Jan and Feb.

Min temps only slightly above normal for March as there has been less cloud and somewhat less humidity this month compare to Jan and Feb.

[johnno]

The SAM is also going down through the floor well into the Negatives the last 7-10 days usually that increases the chances of Stronger fronts in the next week or two

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... #composite" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

*Scroll to the top once page opens and you see the graph*


Theres also talk of the SAM being mostly in the Negatives this Winter which would make the Westerly belt stronger, Stronger fronts, more regular fronts & better snow for the Ski Bunnies so we shall wait and see if this plays out.

[johnno]

And the forecasts graphs which I tend to find to be accurate 80-90% of the time of its general trend continues the Negative figures of the SAM well into April which may throw us some interesting and unsual weather in April

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Twister]

Yes it shall be an interesting few months to see what happens

32mm here for the event, all coming on Wednesday and Wednesday night

Looking forward to some mid 20s early next week

[droughtbreaker]

I reckon we are pretty much due for a cold and unsettled winter with numerous strong cold fronts and more of your 'standing up' variety bringing the cold outbreaks in from the south and providing more widespread rainfall for on and south of the ranges with more southerly aspect to the air flow. Perhaps we will see a return to major low level snow events this year?

If what we are seeing for the next week to 2 weeks is any indication for the following months of weather with the trends in the SAM index then this is feasible IMHO.

GFS is pretty much lowering the snow level to around 1400m or even lower mid to late week. EC is nowhere near as keen but it was the first model to pick this up and has now gone back in its shell as it often does, so could be right back onto it in future runs.

Anyway, today is a miserable SCu day, pretty horrible really, temperature sitting on 12C.

[stevco123]

Just a quick question in relation to the new AWS at ferny creek.
how does it compare in terms of temperature with dunns hill?

[daviescr]

Just home from a few days away - was keeping an eye on this event from afar and was expecting very little - hugely surprised to have 31mm, taking my MTD to a more than respectable 84.5 mm

[Rivergirl]

Welcome home Chris

steveco123. I don't know officially but I live in the same street as the new Ferny Creek AWS and I look out on Dunns Hill so I wouldn't expect there would be a big difference. The new AWS is a bit lower

[Rivergirl]

Great info hillybilly. Thanks

[Alexia]

Away for the week back home now had 13.5mm rain for this system happy we didn't get big rain. Man from snowy river festival this next weekend weather looks good

[Karl Lijnders]

Out of the sick bed and into the sun today! A wonderful autumnal day! Classic Melbourne weather and how I remember it back in the early 90s.

Had 3mm of drizzle in Monbulk across the weekend and 46mm there for the event. No drizzle at home across the weekend, and 40mm for the event.

Becoming cooler and more cloudy later in the week into the weekend with a few showers, more classic autumnal weather.