Interesting scenario currently being suggested for Tasmania next week with decent rainfall amounts, especially eastern TAS associated with a large cutoff low forming in the eastern Bight and a strong E to NE flow coming onto Tassie with a strong SW'ly flow on its backside coming onto southeast SA (attached).
However considering the fairly high uncertainty often associated with the forecast location and movement of cutoff lows, I wouldn't be surprised if things chop and change between now and then.
This morning's 00z PME/WATL for this weekend and next week:
Forecast_rainfall.png (50.61 KiB) Viewed 5320 times
This morning's 00z EC 10m wind for next week:
EC_forecast_wind_for_06z_23rdMar2011.png (24.67 KiB) Viewed 5320 times
I agree for a wet Tasmania. Also a strong chance for southern Vic.
I Need about 60-70ml to fall in Melbourne to come in close for the march rainfall competition for Melbourne.
Next week ..need most of it to fall, running a bit short!
Counting on the cloud mass in the southern ocean coming in slightly from SW...whilst still moving east.
Quite possible
I agree I think tassie is in big trouble.
Think much of the E NE and maybe N tassie will see well over 100mm with many 150mm+ and even a few 200mm+ fall in wetter spots
They will get up to 4 days of rain and with the low not moving or even moving west they will just get slammed by strong E flow on the south side of the low also mounts in E tassie will aid even more in lifting the strong moist flow from the Tasman
Also possibly 100km winds on back side of low with rain going to be a VERY wild week down there
I am very worried about this event. We are overdue for a large flood , the last was in 1929. The BOM now forecasts heavy rain for Tuesday and Wednesday. The authorities have been draining the Trevallyn Dam near Launceston in anticipation of this event.
Here is a link to weatherzone news . A report from the outcome of this event. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasm ... cal-/16928" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and looking at the national loop the event is nstill in progress.
Some serious rain in places. Apparently some place in TAS had close to 1 metre in 48hrs.
However please omit the bit that says central Victoria had serious flooding rain.Twaddle!! Another incident of inaccurate reporting with some good stuff too.
I am seriously going to write to weather zone and have a winge one day. That is twice this week they have described Victoria as under water and l am getting seriously 'issed off'
LAUNCESTON EVACUATION ALERT
ABC
March 25, 2011, 9:30 pm
Launceston residents are being told to prepare for possible evacuations as floodwaters move into the Tamar River, but police say the water levels have dropped since high tide.
The North and South Esk rivers are yet to reach their peak after two days of heavy rainfall.
Residents in the low-lying suburbs of Invermay and Inveresk have been warned they may have to leave their homes as floodwaters from Longford travel northwards.
Australia Post has distributed flood information kits to houses in the affected areas.
Police say sirens will sound if residents have to evacuate and people should be prepared by packing their cars with warm clothing, blankets and water and making arrangements for their pets.
They say people who want to stay overnight with family or friends are free to do so.
The University of Tasmania and the Silverdome have been designated as evacuation centres.
Police say the Tamar river in Launceston is expected to peak between 03:00 and 07:00 tomorrow morning but the council has already closed most of the city's floodgates.
Launceston remains on flood watch
Posted March 26, 2011 07:29:00
Launceston's Tamar River is just minutes from peaking as residents wait to see if they need to evacuate. The river is almost at its expected peak of 2.5 metres, that is significantly less than the predicted peak of three metres.
No homes in the low lying areas of Invermay and Inveresk have been evacuated but State Emergency Service crews and police door knocked around 3,000 houses last night advising residents to be on standby.
Flood waters in the Macquarie and South Esk Rivers peaked at Longford at 6.4 metres last night. About 8 homes in the area were evacuated but flood waters are now receding. Meanwhile Police and SES are warning while the peak is not expected to be as high as first anticipated, the danger is not over yet.
Police say it is still vital residents are prepared and be ready to evacuate if required over the next 24 hours. They say a number of residents have already chosen to go and stay with friends and relatives living on higher ground. No one has taken up the option of staying in the city's flood evacuation shelter at this stage.
The SES's Mhairi Revie says there is still significant flows coming down the Cataract Gorge into the river as a result of heavy rain and flooding across the region.
"Certainly some of the flows that are coming down whilst they've very significant some of those flows have dropped to be below what we expected them to be right now which is very good news."
"At the moment it is sitting at 1,300 cubic metres per second," she said.
Wow Cataract Gorge looks wild. Thanks for the pics Lily. It never got to an emergency situation on the Tamar thank goodness. Ken rang his sister yesterday
WOW Lily - love the pics of the gorge - thanks for posting. I was there a few years back after a heavy rain event and it was not even close to this... would love to have seen this first hand
Flood damaged roads reopen
Posted 4 hours 56 minutes ago
St Marys pass was blocked by trees and storm debris. (ABC News: Jonathon Gul)
St Marys Pass in Tasmania's flood affected north east should be re-opened later today.
About 100 tonnes of debris was swept onto the road during extensive flooding last week.
But authorities expect the bridge over the Cascade River at Derby to remain closed for repairs for another week.
The Government's roads and traffic general manager, Peter Todd, says there is still a lot of work to do.
"Our first task is to get the roads open where we can as safely as possible and then move into looking at some of the longer term repairs that we may need to do so that will take some time," he said.
Just had some awesome news at work - we just sold one of our instruments to a new customer in Hobart. This is the first time in 20+yrs we have been operating in Australia that we have been able to sell anything in TAS. The great news is that I'm the lucky fella that gets to spend a week (at least) installing the new gear... One happy chap
