Vic - Surface trough & Cut off low 19-25/3/11

[Jake Smethurst]

Models are all over the shop at the moment, and just looking at them whilst I try and write this forecast, one thing is for certain, a low will develop somewhere, but like most times, it's a matter of where. EC has the low further west into eastern South Australia on Monday, whilst GFS has it more closer to central Victoria as Karl states. ACCESS-R is interesting where it plots rainfall data. Forecasts should be used still at this time with rather low to moderate confidence as all the finer details are yet to be confirmed. But it's looking like one massive event, and so far, some large totals are being predicted, depending on what model you follow.

[Tassiedave]

Some of the models predict high rainfall for us here in Tassie particularly the East Coast. We could see record totals for March.

[Jake Smethurst]

Tassie looks to get a flogging as well mate!!

EC has the low in the vicinity of Victoria from Sunday until the end of it's model run. That would prove interesting if it were to happen. But at this stage, I suspect the low on Monday over central parts will track south to southwest into Bass Strait by Tuesday, and remain there for a few days. I think I may cope some huge totals from this one.

[Meso]

So what are the chances for some decent storms out of this? Stormcast looks pretty miserable.

Could well be our last chance for the season I feel, so maybe one of you guru's could provide me with a little something to pin my hopes on. I need one more storm to get me through the winter!

[stratospear]

I don't see much in the way of storms for Vic. Mind you, much of the outback has lit up like a Christmas tree going by the latest satpic... The positioning of the low is crucial in the coming days wrt rain totals.

[Petros]

Well an inland low/possible ECL scenario is now a given (OK probably was yesterday), the variance in the models should be expected I guess because the birth of an ECL if it happens, can be over a small enough geo area to slip between the gribs of the non meso scale models.

My prediction (as if anyone would care), is that an ECL will eventuate and 60mm rain in central/N Gippsland between Sunday and Wednesday night will result.

This will create moderate flood flows into the Thompson and Macallister rivers and create a problem for myself in getting to LV next Thurs when the first day of a major power station outage requires my attendance .

[Twister]

This system is looking big and I have NEVER seen models prog a low like this, to hang around for over 4 days and almost rotate around its self is going to be a VERY impressive system and I think also a record breaking one.
But for a few it looks like it will be a very frustrating one, some may see 15mm while only 50km away has 80mm
If low hangs over or S of us, for a day or so, like models are saying, then little rain for us central folk during that time.

IF was in Tassie more so E NE I be quite worried, they are going to get hit very hard, expect 100-200mm and a few days of 60-100km/h winds its going to be very messy down there with possible major flooding.

Almost all models have low forming around the VIc NSW border, then move it SE into the tasmen, deepen it, then move it back west to be south of the SA border mid late week. If this was to come off, It would cause massive flooding in N Tassie and also big falls in East gippy and SW Vic.
You are right power storm think you could see 60-100mm next week if get stuck in wrap around even more.

Had meeting about this system today for next week its big and has everyone watching and talking.

I am getting a little excited but also a bit worried for tassie and maybe SW Vic but its looking epic and watching it evolve from Sunday will be unreal also looks to be a Very windy wet and wild week, next week to

Enjoy the sun and almost warmth this week as might be it for awhile

Going to be a long and active week cant wait

Going for 40mm at this stage, but could be much more, waiting till low forms before we get better handle on rainfall winds and the like

[droughtbreaker]

I don't trust what the models are spitting out at the moment. IMO they have gone into complete meltdown. GFS of course looks reasonably feasible but EC has lost the plot completely, something has gone seriously wrong there, my advice is to disregard that model completely until it sorts out its issues.

Anyway, a three day rain event looks likely from later Sunday until Wednesday. The heaviest falls will be Monday and Tuesday until it eases back Wednesday and then we get a few days of cold and showery weather. If GFS is right we could be looking at some pretty severe cold mornings too later next week with a very early beginning to the frost season inland.

[Meso]

If GFS is right we could be looking at some pretty severe cold mornings too later next week with a very early beginning to the frost season inland.

Oh, yay!! I can not wait for that!!!!

/end sarcasm

Twister, can you please update your location. You're down Melb way now, aren't you? You mentioned "us central folk", but you still have Mildura listed as your location.

Anyway, I don't really have anything technical to add. Looking forward to seeing what unfolds. I always enjoy seeing how these big systems pan out compared to the differing predictions. And one thing I feel confident about is this system is going to be BIG...for someone!

Question - I'm planning a few days off down Apollo Bay next weekend...will most of this crappy (in terms of outdoor activities) weather have cleared out by then? Everytime I go down the GOR it is blowing a gale!

[Twister]

Yeah my bad Meso its all changed now sadly not country boy any more sad times I love the country

I a with You Meso Re cold mornings I HATE the cold but looks like its going to be a LONG LONG cold 7 months

Yeah i agree it wont be pouring for the whole week but think the low will be around for up to 4 days which you never see that much maybe Dec 2004 last time maybe

Bring on the rain and wind

[Meso]

Haha, well you can never take the country out of the boy, so you'll be right! Thanks for that!

I'll just be ignoring your 7 months comment...just don't wanna think about it! Haha. Glad someone understands my hatred of cold weather...some people I know are looking fwd to it...WTF?!?!

[Karl Lijnders]

I would totally disagree with you on this one Andrew. GFS has been completely all over the shop in terms of placement, rainfall distribution and synoptic pattern. EC has not wavered in the past 3 days with a lingering low/cold air.

I think overall your synopsis is correct, but you cannot write off the model completely. I tend to think it is showing a cold outbreak potential towards next weekend, which will mean showers, local hail and thunder.

If there is a low in our neck of the woods for that long, well I would think this would be the period for something that stupid to happen.

Anticipating rain periods for the first 3 days, showery and stormy with local hail around and blustery cold winds for the remainder of the period. Looking towards 100mm here and most likely higher falls scattered about.

[droughtbreaker]

It's been a dry March here which has been fantastic, so a nice rain producing low will be good for keeping the soil moist without causing another major flood and water logging event.

I agree with David on this one. I am not seeing much in the way of huge totals. The precipitable water is not progged very high, it's healthy but not the ridiculous heights that we saw with systems over summer. Also it's a messy and complex setup that has sent the models around the bend. We still don't really know the details as to what will happen. IMHO some places will get some big falls while others get much more modest totals or even miss out (not completely but in terms of significant falls).

All we can be certain about is that it will be yet another extended period of very dull, cloudy, gloomy, humid, damp and at times misty weather followed by early season cold and wind.

[Twister]

SO nice out there today and should be even better tomorrow LOVE it sad that it could be the last warmth for quite a while

Still looking wet and wild week but it will be a week of big falls here and little falls for others

Should explode over SA tomorrow and then slowly move our way before wrapping up nicely

Enjoy the warmth and sun shine

[droughtbreaker]

Really humid here. Sun's out, 18.6C feels like around 22C-23C with the humidity.

[Supercellimpact]

Just looking at BOM 4 day synoptic chart, they have the low coming down over central Vic then going down to south western Vic and deeping and just sitting for several days which gives a chance of showers everyday. Why isn't it moving away fast like they normally do ? Is It the high pressure ridge torwards NZ blocking it ?

[Dane]

Latest models downgrading this system somewhat, however expecting 20 to 30mm's here over the next week with most of it coming on Monday, just scattered showers from Tuesday thru to Saturday.

[johnno]

Latest models downgrading this system somewhat, however expecting 20 to 30mm's here over the next week with most of it coming on Monday, just scattered showers from Tuesday thru to Saturday.

What models are those Dane? Latest EC, UK has 50-100mm through Central Victoria for the week, UK has 20-40mm Monday alone EC around 40-50mm, GFS also holding steady with very good falls.

I also noticed that UK and GFS have held preety steady with this system interms of where the low goes where EC has been erratic.

[Petros]

Hmm - an exciting system because its going to deliver a cut-off low, its got tropical air involved, and the models dont yet agree where its all going to eventuate (the Vic areas with significant rain I mean). So anyone in Vic still has an ace up their sleeve.

Overcast but nice day out this way, light easterly breeze flucuated over the arvo to provide perfect golf conditions, got to 23.8C here, with the odd spit of moisture as I packed the sticks into the car. Didnt last long, but I think we are heading towards easterly drizzle soon by the look outside.

Twister - following your posts over years now, its just fantastic to see a true weather professional developing right in front of our eyes!!! We will all be hanging off every word you post now and into the future so please stick with us!!!

The last 2 12 hour runs havent been too friendly for Gippsland, but if we pick up 15mm or so over the next 5 days without too much wind damage, we will still be happy.

BRING IT ON

[calamity]

Hmm - an exciting system because its going to deliver a cut-off low, its got tropical air involved, and the models dont yet agree where its all going to eventuate (the Vic areas with significant rain I mean). So anyone in Vic still has an ace up their sleeve.

i dont particularly want an ace up my sleeve, any rain up here would be devastating for so many ......