Victoria: Cold front - showers and colder temps - 10-13 Dec

[Blackee]

Fire Weather Briefing for Victoria
Issued at 10:46 am EDT on Thursday 10 December 2009.

Estimates Today:
The fire weather estimates look on track today. Complicated wind situation
today as a cold front is still forecast to move across the area today and
tonight. Rather than an abrupt change, winds will gradually shift from WNW to
WSW and freshen through this afternoon. In the more complicated terrain in the
eastern part of the state, winds will slowly swing around to the southwest late
tonight and overnight. Ahead of the change in the higher terrain, winds will
initially be out of the northwest but slowly swing to the west this afternoon,
then southwest later this evening and overnight.

Observational Network Status:
Melbourne radar will be unavailable for approximately 1/2 hour this morning due
to maintenance.

Weather Situation:
A cold front in the far southwest this morning will move cross the State today,
reaching central areas this afternoon and the far east by this evening. A high
pressure system will move into the Bight on Friday and extend a ridge across
northern Victoria into the weekend as a series of weak cold fronts pass through
Bass Strait.

24 Hour Rainfall to 9am:
Very isolated showers with 1 to 4mm of precipitation along the southwest coast.

Weather Today:
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extending from the west during the
morning and early afternoon, mainly over southern and mountain areas. Mild,
fresh northwest to westerly winds shifting cooler gusty southwesterly during
the day.

[NoRelationToNed]

persistent light drizzle here in the north with that rainband feeding down from the northwest. Only registered about .5 mm yet.

[Karl Lijnders]

Looks like we are flying blind today with no radar coverage at all from the backup and the main dopplar so this should be fun.

Judging by the eye there is an area of mid level convection building over the C areas and this could see locally heavy showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of the cold front due at 3pm. I think we could see some healthy totals from Melbourne eastwards in the order of 10-30mm. It is looking classic thunderstorm development.

Keep the updates going everyone - with no radar in Melbourne these posts are important!!!

[Blackee]

Karl, it was mentioned in the Fire Briefing that the radar was going offline for 30mins. Lets hope it is up by 1300hrs!!

[Blackee]

Radar is back up and the 1st frame has made me a bit more excited about the potential this afternoon!!!

[Dc449]

Im working 2-530.... I guess i will miss the good action?

[Blackee]

DC, you probably will mate and I think the Central/Eastern Ranges will have the best chance for storms. Cricket training may be wet however!!!

[Karl Lijnders]

The storm chart is a bit off today, I think Melbourne is in the highest chance area this afternoon for thunderstorms, proven by the fact that we have this clear slot between both bands of cloud and the highest chance of seeing convergence on the wind change at peak diurnal heating.

Should be a good few hours, starting generally from about 2:30pm.

[Proteous]

Got to 28.6 before the sea breeze now just 22, a lot of mid level cloud about so not without some chance of rain.

[johnno]

Windchange moving through Avalon or has moved through there so I expect by 45 mins or so would have reached here and Central Melbourne.

rainband has formed to the NE of Melbourne doesn't suprise me given the cloud signature that way earlier on with thickening middle and high cloud. I'm wondering if thats the rainband that EC had yesterday developing over us that David mentioned? Has it developed to far East with the upslide? Or is it the Scattered showers and isolated storms to our west that flattens out to rain? Time will tell.

[Karl Lijnders]

Wind change is kicking up extensive convection to the west. The sky is exploding currently. Can see the glaciation of the storms to the west northwest.

I was going to pencil in 25mm but was worried I would be yelled at for hogging rain

[Proteous]

Raining quite steadily here now, sky is overcast and temp dropped to 15.

[Anthony Violi]

certainly is looking good..even though the upslide is just out to our East, we probably only missed out on a few mm. The real action is happening ahead of the front and it looks like a big bank of storms will develop as each cell merges with another.

[I_Love_Storms]

Saw a nice line of Cb this morning on the way to Glen Waverley...sort of set the scene for a good day, looked a lot similar to late Oct.

Hope we get a ripper in a couple of hours!

[Blackee]

Cells around Sheoaks/Lal Lal currently lightning active which is a great sign!!!
Be happy with 5mm today as the garden is still moist from Monday.

[johnno]

24.5c here now hopefully will help out

[Leasy]

Me thinks it's slipping too far SE for me, went for a walk to Doncaster Shoppingtown and can see that band - quite nice looking in the way of rain, didn't get a chance to snap a picture though - should've thought of that!

[Lily]

It's going to arrive here right on school pick up time again, isn't it? Story of my life :lol:

[rikjpool]

Wow, i dont know what this is going to look like to you guys down there, but im on the tail end of this thing (literally) and i got some crazy scud movment in there... might see if i can get some snaps, but not sure today, big boss is up...

[Blackee]

Getting quite dark in town! Some lowering in the clouds, especially down south over the bay, almost water spout like!