Karl Lijnders » Tue Mar 08, 2011 4:54 pm wrote:Karl Lijnders wrote: ........A very slim chance of seeing this whole sequence becoming protracted and a deepening low form in the easterly winds over the weekend. That is to watch as it will spark large scale rainfall.
Muggy 32.5C here today, calm overcast and a perfect evening to fire up the BBQ (which I will do soon).
Is AccessR any good? The old MLAPS was always very close after its last run pre-event, so you'd expect its replacement to be the same. For us AccR progs 30mm rain over a 24hr period starting 11am tomorrow, yet all the others are reluctant to squeeze out any more than (a welcome) 6mm-odd. What the?
As for your quote Karl, get out of my territory! I'm the one who has the patent on calling doomed-to-fail Easterly Rain Events!!!
..... and now off to have another look to see what I missed!
Love the generous edit time on AWF!
OK Karl, shopped around and this is the nearest threat to a cut-off I can find on the current runs:
Other models have the next high sausaging in from the W to push any low formation out into the Tasman. So for me, its fairly unlikely as you said, yet worth watching because is a fair way out, a change is coming on Sunday, and its the season for cut-offs in SE Aus in my experience.