Victoria: A humid thundery week - 13th-20th Feb 2011

[HarleyB]

Lilydale Lake's 69mm report disappeared from the BOM's rainfall conditions map. I checked it that night and it was 69mm, the next morning after the 9am reports came in it disappered, however Scoresby's 53mm still remained. Just a tech glitch or did they remove it because they "thought" it was an incorrect reading?

[nafets]

The term that is commonly referred to is sheets or mackeral sky.

I mean about 'little kids being up so late'.

[Ausmammal]

Just got back from walking the dogs. Spotted some weak unorganised convection to the north and that cell over the bay looked nice and dark. Fairly stiff easterly winds atm.

Still as up here at the moment. Just spoke to my brother down near Lang Lang and he said it's very windy down there at the moment, coming in from the east.

[Anthony Violi]

Lilydale Lake's 69mm report disappeared from the BOM's rainfall conditions map. I checked it that night and it was 69mm, the next morning after the 9am reports came in it disappered, however Scoresby's 53mm still remained. Just a tech glitch or did they remove it because they "thought" it was an incorrect reading?

I doubt that Harley, must be a glitch, 72mm at Coldstream at Dads farm and 77.4mm here. Cars floating down the street would have been a good indication of what occured. Must be an error of some sort.

BTW in about 2 or 3 hours the radar over Central Vic is going to look Adelaides this morning, the 9mm until Sunday forecast by Norwegian for central areas will be a distant memory. I think upslide may favour us overnight as the low starts to wrap, but a bit closer would make it a certainty. Still think widespread 25mm plus..and the 0.7mm for Sunday more like 10mm at this stage.

[HarleyB]

Yeah AV thats whhy i put the thought in quotation marks. I was maybe suspecting that it will return in the month end reports and be doctored to be a lower reading so as it wont break the all time record for Feb/Summer, if you know what I mean. Oh well.

It can rain all it likes now, as cricket is finshed for me up here, so no doubt this event will fizz for the local area LOL! Probably expecting 10-40mm

[norfolk]

Is it just me or has this blob of rain slowed down? Wasn't it supposed to be on top of central districts by now?

[Meso]

What a strange Yarrawonga radar. Main band of rain coming across from the W/NW and a separate band of heavy showers moving in from the north about to collide with the main stuff.

[Petros]

Just did the rounds of this arvo's model runs and note that EC give us here at Maffra 3mm tonight/tomorrow. Ouch, that hurts.

Access R gives us 20mm yet its big brother AccessG lucky to get 10mm (GFS same). How can the newly created Australian models be so different at the very last run!!!!!?? Theres a lot of tuning needed before I can trust these vs the superceded MLAPS/GASP combination that we got to know. At least MLAPS was accurate on the final run, AccessR just isnt (if you take its Gippsland predictions in the last 8 weeks into account).

Mind you I'm hoping AccessR comes up trumps!!!! But it dissapointed us a week back !

[Wilko]

I predict 30mm here as a minimum for 24-48hrs
It just has that feel and the Sat looks great
Lotsa moisture still feeding down and well i,m in an opportunistic mood

[Meso]

Humidity @ 80% here and still 24c. Fair to say it's pretty uncomfortable.

[crikey]

some towns near or on SA coastline have had 78mm since 9am.

reference http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[stratospear]

Big falls up near Peterborough SA atm too.

Rainband just seems to be dying on our doorstep. Just a few spots so far. Something has to break with a dew point of 20.4 degC...

[Tempest]

Was looking that way up until the last few frames. Now starting to get interesting with cells beginning to pop up again.

[Petros]

20.5C and 83% RH here, the easterly has lightend off and the baro stalled at 1013 hPa - no precip since the mornings drizzle.

Waiting pessamistically, shame the set up could have provided storms.

[edit] - re the last few radar frames, yep, a bit of promise for Melb springing up and especially for Mildura!!

[Tempest]

Seems like all the activity from SA disappeared into the radar hole a few hours ago and is now starting to pour out the other side. Our side. Don't give up on it yet Petros

[flatcam]

Does anyone know if there is lightning in the cell moving through the Sunbury area at the moment?

Cheers, Cam

[Meso]

Nothin showing up on the WZ tracker. Fire up the AM radio and see if you pick up anythin.

I wouldn't hold your breath for storms tho. Be surprised if there's anything apart from the odd embedded spark here and there. The instability just isn't there unfortunately.

[Petros]

Seems like all the activity from SA disappeared into the radar hole a few hours ago and is now starting to pour out the other side. Our side. Don't give up on it yet Petros

Trying to keep the chin up, but the three kung fu body kicks to the guts in the last 3 events has bought me to my knees - I've stood up again, wobblling about a bit, but without some rain tonight to rebuild the mindset, the easterly will surely win and knock me down for the final blow.

Mills&Boon eat your heart out!!

All E breeze has stopped recently and a barely perceptable drizzle has just started. Hoping heaps!!

[Didjman]

Radar appears to be "gathering":D humidity slowly increasing here over the last few hrs. Currently 24.5/18.2 and rising (dewpoint wise). Would love sparks too, but don't think so.

PS Remember that lightning trackers show CG'S ONLY:D
Peter

[eddie]

Although my cricket team has a forfeit tomorrow I was planning on going around and abusing some other teams, so please dont rain too much!

A nice 20-30mm soaking that clears by early morning would be just perfect