johnno wrote:ACCESS still struggling with the concept theres a major cyclone to cross the Queensland coast mid next week (but we keep getting told its a very good model even though its made 1 stuff up after another lately) infact doesn't even have a a cyclone yet,
ACCESS-G has a known tendency to be reluctant to spin up TC's, mainly due to it's low resolution (about 80km) compared to many other global models (16km for EC). It still performs far better than its predecessor, GASP though.
Meanwhile, the 2-week tropical storm/cyclone probability maps from the EC and UK ensembles have been consistent for over a week now in suggesting moderate/high probabilities for the development of the current system out near Vanuatu and its movement across the Coral Sea towards the QLD coast this week as a significant system (EC has also been painting an area of up to 40% probabilities for this system to reach severe TC status). They also both show the system might penetrate well inland while remaining fairly strong (a landphoon type scenario).
The implications for
SE Australia is that depending on whether or not it does reach the QLD coast as a significant system and if so, its exact path over land, some of the moisture might advect across parts of the southeast later on. Here's this morning's (0032z) colour-enhanced IR MTSAT imagery showing the relative sizes of this current system compared to TC Anthony. Apologies for the size of the images:
- MTSAT_0032z_30thJan2011.JPG (153.62 KiB) Viewed 5268 times
I can also confirm these systems have been dominating the news here the past few days (someone here asked about that). Our premier, Anna Bligh activated the State Disaster Management Group the other day, recalled staff, held a press conference and went into depth about how the latest modeling was showing the potential for two TC strikes on the coast with the 2nd system being much larger and potentially more dangerous. Here's the front page of QLD's Courier Mail newspaper I bought yesterday:
- CourierMail.jpg (48.02 KiB) Viewed 5270 times