Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[fireone]

Localized flash flooding is occurring around Flowerdale, Kinglake, and back towards Yea. Police closing some roads.
There will be big inflows ultimately into the Goulburn from treams around Yea, etc. Some flooding around Seymour too.

Rain is becoming heavy and constant at Alexandra.

[DarkEye]

BTW Mt Gambier has just beaten it's January daily record - up to 63mm and climbing fast.

They aren't the only ones, I've had near 60mm alone from all this rain, it hasn't stopped since about 2pm this arvo.

[droughtbreaker]

The SW change has gone through the far west, temperatures are dropping along with DPs. Renmark down to 19.4C/17.5C now and indications are the the westerly change has hit Mildura. Don't hold me to this but I reckon the low might be moving through quicker than the models have accounted for.

[I_Love_Storms]

Thanks AV and hillbilly... makes more sense. Been moderate rain here for a couple of hours now really.

[Petros]

Had given up on rain here tonight and noticed "white rain" over us on the radar loop, sure enough the odd spit is reaching the ground from a very high light grey sky - now that is humidity for you! We have 63% RH and 28C here with the baro steady for past 24hrs on 1005 hPa (give or take 1).

I agree with most, more heavy rain to bear down through the whole W of Vic tonight so hope not too many homes will get innundated.

[I_Love_Storms]

The SW change has gone through the far west, temperatures are dropping along with DPs. Renmark down to 19.4C/17.5C now and indications are the the westerly change has hit Mildura. Don't hold me to this but I reckon the low might be moving through quicker than the models have accounted for.

I had a good look at GFS last night and they had it coming through mid morning for central areas.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

41.5mm today
65.5 Event
23.8c
1004hpa ,90rh.
Managed to convince Inlaws not to Travel.

[Timster]

Dont be fooled by the apparent clearance in the Wimmera, heavy rain will develop in the next few hours through there and the Mallee. Still plenty more rain to develop overnight, norwegian has the heaviest rain in Melbourne between 8am and midday tomorrow.

Hi Anthony
Watching that clearance now, can you help me understand what is going to allow the rain to develop? I can see lots of cloud on the satpic, but not sure of the mechanisms at play here.

Thanks
Tim

[Anthony Violi]

The surface low was forecast to move down along the border and thats what its doing at present. The associated trough will spread from the west and move the heavy rain through Eastwards.

I do agree its looking to be coming through quicker, but models are still bullish on that area through the Mallee and Wimmera continuing to have heavy rainfall develop through there.

I geuss in a few hours we will know, dont forget this morning at 3am there was not much happening and then by 6am it had erupted statewide. The key is the airmass, will the change stick to the plan and go south along the border into Bass Strait?

Edit: Tim, the surface low is moving south from Mildura down to MT Gambier. By Morning it will be in Bass Strait all going well, meaning the airmass to its East will still be the same, allowing the trough which is linked to the surface low like an "arm" to move slowly across the state. Thats why i expect more rain to to be triggered next few hours, as models suggest.

Having said that, models arent always right and neither am I.

[Instability]

I only had 18.2mm in total for the event to 9am this morning, I am suspecting that will be nearly tripled by 9 am tomorrow. The last 3 hours from Notting Hill to Burwood has been an absolute deluge

Rog.

[Anthony Violi]

This is the same chart ILS posted a few pages back...explains better what i mean. The surface low heading into Bass Strait, but the asociated upper trough being the dashed line will slowly move across the state in a sort of a barrel roll fashion West to East. That is the seperation of the 2 airmasses. And shortly you will see the Wimmera and Malle fill in with rain as i just went outside and the airmass is just outrageous.

[jmw2207]

Sheepwash Creek here in Strathfieldsaye is a raging torrent.....Poor rochester would have to be a massive concern in the next few days with the current situation of the Campaspe

[Jayman]

looks like more rain developing north of mildura

[Petros]

Somehow the light misty stuff has made it to "light rain" status here. Geez it would be nice to have it pesist overnight - but the models all say NUP!

Westerly in Mildura currently? - that means the low is cutting off and begining its progged rapid sag into the roaring forties SSW of Tassie. A fantastic easterly dip system, and fantastic performance by the models who were all over this late last week/last weekend.

[johnno]

Actually winds have gone back round to the E or NE in the SW when 3 hours ago they were from the South which suggests to me the low may be tracking South or even SSW?

[solcampbell]

Thanks AV for the explanation. I was going to ask the same question. Thanks to this forum and its helpful posters, I'm slowly learning how these things work...

[Desertdust]

Mate who is a paramedic in Mildura just sent this.

.............. message on my scanner just said that a projection has been made that Mildura is going to remain rain free until 2 am.............................. and then 50 mm of rain per hour for 6 odd hours.........................


What the .......heck

[Anthony Violi]

That wont be happening DD..will be raining there shortly again, where did the info come from?

[Dane]

Rain has been a lot lighter down here. 5mm's up to 9am and 14mm's since, just light drizzle now. 24/22.

[Timster]

Having said that, models arent always right and neither am I.

Thanks for the explanation! All will be revealed in the coming hours.
I'm watching in anticipation.