2 quick things to mention. First thing is if the low hits earlier than expected, will it kill the rain quicker or enhance it? Second thing is i'm not trying to favour certain people here but I think we all ought to mention Anthony who predicted the kind of totals we are getting 2 weeks ago (for this particular event), and for months on end now... just sayin...
These dewpoints are just amazing right across the state at the moment, haven't seen anything like this ever for such a sustained period and will probably continue for another 18-24 hours as well. That Melbourne dewpoint 'record' of 24.2 could well be in danger, currently 23.7 at the moment.
Battening down the hatches here. About to get very interesting.
HarleyB wrote:2 quick things to mention. First thing is if the low hits earlier than expected, will it kill the rain quicker or enhance it? Second thing is i'm not trying to favour certain people here but I think we all ought to mention Anthony who predicted the kind of totals we are getting 2 weeks ago (for this particular event), and for months on end now... just sayin...
Now steadily raining here, up to 10mm today.
Southerlies would kill the dynamics of the system and start the process of drying out the air mass, that's what I would think anyway. Most of the rain, if not all of it, is going to be on the east side of the low. We're going to end up with almost 250mm for this system I reckon. Mark my words.
Hmm this system is beginning to outplay the models a little I think. We will know more by tomorrow morning but I didn't quite expect Central areas to be lined up so severely today.
Natimuk Lake is overflowing making it worse for the town. Burnt Creek is flooded near Horsham The paddocks are full & water is running out The highway is covered in water between Horsham & Stawell
all is very wet & its still raining we have had over 5 inches 125 mils +
Left work in Glenthompson at 4:40pm and had 27mm in the guage in Glenthompson, got to Dunkeld, seems they have had over 50mm yet only 18km away. The caravan park is flooded, roads are closed. Water everywhere and currently bucketing down, yet the radar only shows light rain... Water level is higher than when there was 80mm here only a month ago
Council out with earth moving equipment desperately trying to clear out our drains that have been neglected for years. Rain continues to Pour down. If we don't get another 50-75mm by tomorrow afternoon I'll be very surprised. Easily the biggest rain event in the history of the area.
We have had light rain for most of the day, except for this morning when we had 20mm quick time. Been around the area and just that 20mm is causing problems. Our local roads are cut-off again, farm tracks are washed out and cannot pass in some parts. Radar indicating a wet night for here with heavy rain, so not going to be good.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
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Big night ahead for the states west, and more rain into the N central areas too. I guess its fair to say that the Murray R system is "fixed" in terms of a full flush out. Acknowledge that Eucembene and Dartmouth are not full,... but the Hume is.
0.5mm here with a shower this morning and 17.5mm for this system. We will struggle to get much more without a lucky storm in the north-eastern edge of the cut-off low as it gets gobbled up SSW of Tassie tomorrow. Another 10mm would be nice but no whinges out this way, we wouldnt swap it for 100mm. Stilll a shamefull waste of near-record humidity/CAPE without even being within co-ee of a storm.