Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[Blackee]

Ah yes, this is real rain.
Hosing down now.

Just had word from in-laws and daughter that Taylor Bay (Lake Eildon) has received over 80mm for the event!!

[Gordon]

Another 25 mm since I headed into town & back this morning so 132 mm now. Culverts & bridges are coping around here so far, but not by much. Some flooding on Victoria St heading out of Ballarat.

[Tassiedave]

Re: my post earlier today can confirm the official BOM rainfall recordings for the 24 hours to 9 am. Scamander 278 mm, Falmouth 282 mm and St Helens 250 mm. Many other locations in Tassie's North East received 150mm plus.

[thunderhead]

Gutters overflowing here in Camberwell East.

[Jake Smethurst]

My latest thunderstorm chart:

The Australian Weather Forum
Thunderstorm Forecast - Day 1 (Thursday)
Issued 12:50 PM EDT 13/01/2011

A trough of low pressure and a developing low is located in South Australia. Conditions across Victoria today resemble a true tropical atmosphere, with widespread high moisture levels and instability. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across most parts of Victoria today, however the area of interest is over the northern districts where instability is strongest. *Question Marks* have been placed within the 'likely' area today to indicate that there is some concern that cloud cover may hamper development, however this region is still the most likely area for thunderstorm development. If there is clearance in cloud cover today, expect thunderstorm formation, otherwise most activity will be embedded. Flash flooding is the largest concern in thunderstorm activity today, however the Bureau of Meteorology have already issued a Severe Weather Warning in response to this. Damaging winds are also possible, more likely in the west of the state, but to a lesser extent.

[droughtbreaker]

I'm losing count of all this rain. Another 47mm in the gauge but that's from 9am yesterday I think.

128.2mm all up since Sunday and probably another 50-100mm to come. Crazy stuff.

What is really amazing is how it's absolutely Pour down here under a fairly bright sky with the cloud base not even all that low. It is just at an absolute hair trigger atm where rain is forming out of nowhere and nothing.

[nafets]

6mm since midday brings my total to 9AM 13mm.

[Blackee]

BOM chart resembles the chart that Jake has posted.
Likely storms from a line E of Yea. Chance of storms to the west of Yea.
Heavy cloud cover will inhibit development, but still a chance. Flash Flooding most likely.

Any updates on wind speeds out in the burbs/country?

[Didjman]

baro on the way down. now 1008.5!! temp 24.6/22.3/87.
Peter

[Flangfest]

35mm here

[Blackee]

Tweeted by VicPol

"Intersection of Napier St and Hyde St in Footscray under two feet of water. Avoid area".

Must be getting close to issuing that Road Weather Alert. Nah, too late!!

[Lily]

ROFL Sniper!

Fairly hairy driving conditions out this way an hour or two ago, I was in Mt Waverley and headed to Knoxfield, quite a bit of localised minor flooding on the road, combined with big heavy raindrops on the windscreen made negotiating the puddles a bit treacherous. Lots of cars shooting water high up in the air as they drove through the flooding to the sides of the roads.

At home 23/22/95% 29.0mm exactly since 12 midnight. Kids are insisting I take them up to Eildon today, I'm not sure I want to go... but it looks to be clearing to light rain after this next band comes through, is that right?

[Blackee]

DJ,

With all due respect to the BoM, are you able to provide us with the criteria that needs to be met before a Road Weather Alert is issued.

It seems that we are well behind other states when issuing same.

[Didjman]

Lily, yes - atm light rain! Also, the southernmost low is kicking up some cold air in the wrap around!! could be interesting times ahead.

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Peter

[Timster]

Dang weather station is not communicating with the rain gauge.... Will kick it when I get home and take a reading from the ever reliable Nylex.
Looking at the radar loop and Ballarat's reading, I suspect we've had at least 25mm this morning.

[Jake Smethurst]

Very interesting times ahead. This rain will continue for the rest of today and tonight. Should start clearing from the west Friday morning. So a lot of hours of this to come and potentially even heavier rainfall to develop.

Moderate rainfall here currently. Weather stations says we have had 4.2mm.

[johnno]

Neally 52mm here for the event including a heavy downpour at Midnight of 5mm and another 15mm Today

[Lily]

Thanks Peter

[droughtbreaker]

BTW as an aside midday today Melbourne recorded the 3rd highest synoptic DP for Melbourne in January (23.1). Previous records were 26th Jan 2003 (24.2) and 24th Jan 1982 (24.0). The all months record is 24.2C. Worth keeping an eye on the next synoptic ob at 3pm which could break the record.

Occasionally you see Melbourne getting DPs in the low 20s in summer with sea breezes when there is a very warm bay and the atmosphere is already quite humid. I wonder what the synoptics were for the other two dates. I would think that this current air mass would have to be one of the most moisture laden the SE corner has ever seen with precip water values breaking the scale.

[Gordon]

Any updates on wind speeds out in the burbs/country?

So far very little wind here on a ridgetop at 600 m Sniper. Hoping it stays that way or there will be carnage with sodden trees & branches falling eveywhere - as you know though the wind forecast isn't good...