Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[Petros]

reading face book.
flash flooding in the valley one girl has water up to her door step.
Never seen so much rain at one time.

???? - Lockyer Valley?


The Dargo storm/rain system has drifted down out of the mountains and only just grazed us with maybe a mm as it passed to our W. Latrobe Valley missed out on the rain last night so hope they pick up 5mm or so from the remnants.

Better looking cloud gathering to our far NE by SatPic so hope to be woken tonight with some rain.

[Ian1971]

21.5c in the Gully Dp 20.2 Hum 90.3 Rain 2.7mm

Bring it ON

[Rhino]

EC gives me another 130mm till friday on top of the 40mm today so around 170mm for the event if that happens. Still sticking with my 110mm for the week but happy to be mistaken, as long as it does'nt come all in one dump. But if EC me is giving me 130mm I'd could probably add another 20-30mm in this convective setup.
Bit of a lull in activity at the moment but this happened last night, then bang, so be aware and this system is still developing. Keep your eyes on the nth border, thats where it's all starting and getting ready to pound us.

Rhino.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

reading face book.
flash flooding in the valley one girl has water up to her door step.
Never seen so much rain at one time.

???? - Lockyer Valley?

Yarra Valley.

[Anthony Violi]

Just looked outside for one last look before dark and there is convection everywhere to the North, big black mid level bases. And i must say its 22/20.5 which is an outrageously humid airmass.

I think we are going to get caned overnight, still developing well into NSW and with this airmass it wont be able to hold so much moisture. Will be some more big totals by morning, mostly over the ranges..

[stratospear]

That "blob" near Deniliquin/Tocumwal is moving SW and maintaining its grunt. Quite different to other rainbands atm.

[Microburst]

Only 7mm here mostly in the early hours of this morning, suprising to hear of 80-100mm around Warracknabeal only 50k north of here. Radar has teased all day, and hard to decided where to look for rain, at stages rain approached from NE N and NW but never made it here. Hoping rain stays away for our farmers still harvesting, but with the forecast the way it is this week will likely bring more crop damage and downgraded grain. Seems to be building in southern and western NSW and filtering down into the Mallee tonight with storms spreading into rain areas. Could turn out to be a repeat overnight for the Mallee with heavy falls.

Anyway ,what do the experts think for Horsham overnight and tomorrow?

[calamity]

Hi All
A bit wet around Swan hill today, altho official stats of approx 22mm listed + 36mm overnite, many properties within 50km radius reported in excess of 100mm this morning alone. think i need to invest in a boat

[Gordon]

23 mm here since rain started early this morning. Calm and misty now.

[Blackee]

Microburst, I am finding it difficult to see how Horsham will escape with less than 50mm for the rest of this week.
Models have Friday as a particularly wet day statewide.

50mm minimum, higher if you get stuck under a storm or two.

[Lily]

Ugh, since losing everything on my laptop (including all my links), I can't find the Thomson Dam obs link I used to have. Does anyone still have it (if you know which one I mean lol? It was on here somewhere ages ago). Wondering what sort of rainfall they've had so far.

Ian, yep, big 40 (ohmigoddddd!!). Might have to make it an Eildon celebration

This is nuts, currently 21C/20DP and 92% humidity, the air is SO heavy with moisture! Just on 3.0 mm of rain today. Considerable band of lightning currently heading towards the border between Echuca and Swan Hill.


ETA: Welcome Calamity! Jane is it lol???!!! Do us a favour, pop into your User Control Panel and update your location so we know where you're reporting from, if you have any problems let me know and I will be happy to help. Great to have you joining us

[Blackee]

Hi All
A bit wet around Swan hill today, altho official stats of approx 22mm listed + 36mm overnite, many properties within 50km radius reported in excess of 100mm this morning alone. think i need to invest in a boat

Welcome Calamity!

The record daily rainfall for Swan Hill in January is 35.4mm in 2005.
(please note that the station has not been recording obs as long as other established centres).

[Microburst]

Agree Sniper, thanks for your input. To think if some areas have already had 100mm+ in the Mallee what the result for them will be over the coming days... they might end up with annual figures not monthly for this week. Flooding certainly on the cards for parts... just how widespread will depend mainly on the outcome of the approaching trough for Thur Friday where the biggest falls are more likely...

Interesting times ahead, they say the bigger the drought the bigger the flood, so given the Mallee has been in drought before this year for 10-15years could be something major on the door step....

[mutley]

Hi Lily, Thomson Dam link reporting 4mm since 9am
http://www.melbournewater.com.au/conten ... asp?bhcp=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

5mm here is Berwickish with 20+ falls 10km to my east.

[Lily]

Legend Mutley, ta

It's actually just started to rain "properly" here now, only light but heavier than the aptly named "mizzle" we've been getting

[calamity]

thanks for the welcome Lily
Unfortunately this rain isnt welcome for the grapegrowers in the mallee and 100+mm may just add to our blackwater woes !

[solcampbell]

Weird? Haven't heard one cricket all season and right now about a dozen of them have found their voice on my back lawn.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Welcome Calamity.
What do you mean by Blackwater Woes.?

[Microburst]

Cells in the far NW Mallee now appear to be heading west, today we seemed to be on the edge of any rain to our east, perhaps the development in SA may indicate that tomorrow the far western vic has more chance. But I am only guessing, and so far... you can not hold hope by looking at the radar as there seems to be weak steering in any storms, hence individual cells moving where they like. ...

Any thoughts?

[HarleyB]

Not that it really matters anymore, but the latest GFS is an upgrade on the previous two runs.