SEQ & NE NSW: Rain event & Flood tragedy - Jan 2011

[Blackee]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast district, southern parts of the Wide Bay and
Burnett district and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt
district.
Issued at 11:05 am on Monday 10 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 10am EST, an upper level low was located over the
southwest of the Capricornia District. A surface trough was located off the
southeast coast. Both of these systems are moving slowly west.

Heavy rain areas and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
Southeast Coast district, far southern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett
District and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt district. Heavy
falls may lead to localised flash flooding and/or worsen existing river
flooding.

The heavy rain areas and thunderstorms are expected to contract southwards into
the Southeast Coast district and southeast parts of the Darling Downs and
Granite Belt district during Tuesday.

Recent events: In the 24 hours to 9am EST Monday morning, Maleny received 321mm, West Bellthorpe 310 mm and Peachester 298 mm.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5 pm Monday.

[Blackee]

Are my eyes tricking me, or is there clear rotation on the 128/256 Brisbane radar?

[daviescr]

Where abouts Wes? The system that's about 60k's of the Gold Coast?

[Blackee]

Where abouts Wes? The system that's about 60k's of the Gold Coast?

Yes mate, it almost looks cyclonic as it is spinning anti-clockwise.

[daviescr]

Wow, it's a seriously big system on it's own, hope all points south of Brissie are battening down the hatches

[Blackee]

Unconfirmed reports of people missing in Toowoomba after flash flooding this afternoon.

60mm fell in one hour between 1300hrs & 1400hrs caused widespread chaos.

Live coverage can be found at Radio 4BC.

[Lily]

Interesting article from the ABC discussing the 1974 Brisbane floods http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011 ... ion=justin

1974 comes flooding back as Brisbane on alert
By Brigid Andersen

Updated 57 minutes ago


Flooding tragedy: Albert Street in the Brisbane CBD during the January 1974 Brisbane floods (AAP: Queensland State Archives)

As rain continues to fall on south-east Queensland, flooding rivers and swamping towns, the risk of Brisbane flooding like it did in 1974 grows higher.

Over the Australia Day weekend in 1974 the Brisbane River broke its banks and inundated the city, killing 14 people and flooding almost 6,000 homes.

The flood followed months of rain which had filled rivers in the south-east, then when Cyclone Wanda dumped heavy rain over the region these rivers were pushed over the limit, leading to the worst floods of the century.

It is a pattern that now seems to be repeating itself.

Swollen creeks and rivers are flooding towns, causing pockets of isolation across south-east Queensland.

The Brisbane River is on flood alert and already residents are being offered sandbags.

Professor Roger Stone is a climatologist from the University of Southern Queensland and Australia's representative for the UN commission on climatology and agricultural meteorology.

He says the La Nina weather pattern, which is currently pushing monsoonal conditions over parts of Australia, is the same as the one experienced in the lead-up to the 1974 floods.

"It's the same type of pattern in the Pacific Ocean. That was one of the major La Ninas," he said.

"We had a similar pattern in 1954 and '55 and also back in 1893 and we've had a few slightly less intense patterns in the meantime - 1988, 2008 and a few intervening years that aren't quite as strong as this."

Professor Stone says this pattern means the risk Brisbane will experience another flood like that in 1974 is eight times higher.

"I know looking at the work we do for the water authorities and other agencies, instead of the risk being about 5 per cent in any year, this year it's about 30 to 40 per cent," he said.

"So the risk is certainly increased. It's not guaranteed, but as with many agencies and insurance agencies and water resource folk working on risk management, we know that the risk is substantially increased in a year like this."

Brisbane's defence

The Wivenhoe Dam was built in the aftermath of 1974 as Brisbane's defence against another major flood.

But even this may not be enough to prevent a disaster downstream.

SEQ Water has been releasing 170,000 megalitres of water from the dam a day in preparation for flooding.

The releases have led to minor flooding in communities below the dam.

Many creeks in Brisbane's suburban areas are prone to flash flooding and Professor Stone says the weather conditions will test the city's town planning.

He says the success of the Wivenhoe Dam will depend on the type of weather pattern experienced.

"It depends exactly how the rain falls and where it falls and which sort of catchments areas are involved," he said.

"It might help in certain circumstances, but it depends exactly on the nature of the rainfall event or the rainfall events because the one we have at the moment may not be the last one - we could have more of these types of events over the next couple of months."

Not over yet

There has been plenty of warning about La Nina and what she could bring.

The weather pattern began last May and back then parts of northern Victoria and southern New South Wales fell victim to flooding from intense rain.

Professor Stone says there is still a way to go before the risk of flooding from La Nina passes.

"These types of systems tend to start in May-June of any year and last until the following autumn, so the climate year tends to run autumn to autumn," he said.

"You'd expect the main hope for this to start to break down to be in about three months' time, so we still have a long way to go yet."

And Professor Stone says we are yet to see the tropical cyclones usually spawned out of the Coral Sea during these kinds of weather patterns.

"Queensland still has a long way to go, and in fact this also applies to parts of New South Wales and to northern Australia," he said.

"There's still a fair way to go before we see the breakdown of the underlying cause of the whole problem.

"Sometimes they can go through to a second year, so when we get closer to May-June we'll have a better idea if this will continue on or whether it will do what we hope it will do and start to break down."

[Lily]

And reports of flash flooding in Toowoomba confirming your post, Wes. No real info on missing people as yet though.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/819 ... -toowoomba

Flash flood hits Toowoomba16:12 AEST Mon Jan 10 2011


A flash flood has hit the city of Toowoomba west of Brisbane with witnesses saying cars have been swept away, police say.

"It's very early reports but it seems there's been a real flash flood up there. We understand cars could be swept away," a police spokesman told AAP.

He said witnesses had reported flash flooding around the 2 metre mark, including in locations close to the city centre.

There were reports of cars affected by a landslide on the New England Highway on the northern outskirts of the city, the spokesman said.

The ABC reported two women had been swept away in Toowoomba.

Police could not confirm that.

[Lily]

Photos from Toowoomba http://plixi.com/p/69035409

[apocalypse]

From Novak, a local of Toowoomba, who made this post on WZ.

"Very bad situation in Toowoomba CBD... the centre of the city was hit by a huge wall of water, shoppers on the street have been swept away, there are even reports of PEOPLE BEING SWEPT OUT OF SHOPS. I fear there will be many dead. Whole shops have been swept away including everything inside, people, checkouts, goods, cash registers, furniture.. buildings badly damaged... Myer and Grand Central Shopping Centre is flooded, so is GardenTown Shopping Centre (the old Village Fair). It was all so sudden, no warning. Huge disaster up here, just terrible. Absolutely shocking, no-one up here expected this."

That is absolutely horrific.

[apocalypse]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7HLvwPmles

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set= ... 2186875737

[Meso]

Wow. The water is tossing cars around like they're nothing!

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[Blackee]

Wow. The water is tossing cars around like they're nothing!

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Meso, in that clip, the van hits a tree (the 2nd one) and there is a bloke holding on the other side.
Absolutely horrific!

[Meso]

Hahaha, check this one out, commentary is classic!

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[Meso]

Wow. The water is tossing cars around like they're nothing!

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Meso, in that clip, the van hits a tree (the 2nd one) and there is a bloke holding on the other side.
Absolutely horrific!

Yeah, I think you hear the guy say "He's still there" thankfully. Amazing stuff. Heaps more clips on YouTube.

[Blackee]

Can confirm 2 people deceased in Toowoomba.

[Blackee]

Can now confirm 3 dead and a 7m wall of water approaching the Bremer River.
me!

[I_Love_Storms]

Can now confirm 3 dead and a 7m wall of water approaching the Bremer River.
me!

Wes, may I ask where you are obtaining this information? Scary stuff. The crisis hits another level when events like this happen.

[Blackee]

ILS, a direct feed to 4BC
Stream live @ http://4bcsaves.com.au/stream/listen.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Meso]

Yeah, I heard one confirmed, one unconfirmed on the news only 5 mins ago.