SEQ & NE NSW: Rain event & Flood tragedy - Jan 2011

[Blackee]

Rain increasing for Brisbane and the SE today as a low is spinning away off the coast, near the Whitsundays and is dragging in huge amounts of cloud (and rain!).
In regards to the WATL chart posted above, most of that rain is expected to fall in the first 4 days.
Fingers and toes crossed that everything pans out ok, but am thinking it will be chaos and mayhem!!

[Blackee]

Major Flood Warning now out for the Mary River.
The level at Miva, has increased from 3.95m at 2000hrs Wednesday to 17.6m at 0630hrs this morning.
Last 10 minute rise was 10cm!
Up a metre in the past 2 hours!

Phenominal!!

[apocalypse]

There's been some huge totals in that region overnight, including 300mm at Miva, 240mm at Marodian and Mt Kanigan, and 193mm at Brooyar.

[Blackee]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast district and southern parts of the Wide Bay
and Burnett.
Issued at 4:40 am on Sunday 9 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 4am EST, an upper level low was located offshore of the
Capricorn coast. A surface trough was located offshore of the southern
Queensland coast. Both of these systems are expected to move closer to the coast
today.

Rain areas and thunderstorms are expected to increase further through the
Southeast Coast district and southern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett district
today. Some heavy falls are likely which may lead to localised flash flooding
and/or worsen existing river flooding.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11am Sunday

[Petros]

Courtest of Ken on WZ....


The Bureau's airport briefing for Brisbane Airport issued earlier this morning sums up the situation:

COMPLEX SITUATION WITH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFFSHORE NEAR GLADSTONE
BEING THE MAIN CAUSE OF WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG DEEP AND
VERY MOIST E/SE FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW IS CAUSING A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH RAIN AND STORMS OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION A
SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME
THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND STORMS. TIMING THIS
MOVEMENT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITH ALL MODELS AT VARIANCE AND ALSO
TIMING OF ONSET OF HEAVY WEATHER. HOWEVER, RAIN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
EARLY MORNING AND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS AT ANY
TIME.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL:
CAN EXPECT STORMS AT ANY TIME, MORE LIKELY AFTER 23Z

OTHER POSSIBILITIES:
COMPLEX SITUATION SO EXPECT SOME AMENDS DURING THE NEXT 24HRS, WITH
PERIODS WHERE THE CONDITIONS MAY BE BETTER THAN EXECTED.

Hope the Wivenho dam stays together during the next 48 hours, basically uncontrolled flooding from here on imo.!!

[Blackee]

Thanks for that Petros (and to Ken as well)!!
Falls seems to be placed further north than initially forecast, but a hell of a long way to go.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast district, southern parts of the Wide Bay and
Burnett, and eastern Darling Downs and Granite Belt District.
Issued at 4:55 pm on Sunday 9 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 4pm EST, an upper level low was located near the Wide Bay
coast. A surface trough was located near the southern Queensland coast. Both of
these systems are moving towards the west and southwest.

Rain areas and thunderstorms are expected to continue about the northern and
central parts of the Southeast Coast District, southern parts of the Wide Bay
and Burnett District, and northeastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite
Belt district. The heavy rain areas are expected to move into the southern parts
towards the border with New South Wales and west to the Granite Belt overnight.
Heavy falls are likely which may lead to localised flash flooding and/or worsen
existing river flooding.

Recent events: In the past 24 hours, Maleny has recorded 239mm, West Bellthorpe
233mm and Lindfield 226mm.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11pm Sunday.


FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL STREAMS FROM MARYBOROUGH TO THE NSW BORDER
Issued at 7:05 PM on Sunday the 9th of January 2011
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.

A rainband stretches from Gympie to the northern suburbs of Brisbane and inland
to Dalby. Rainfall totals of up 180 millimetres have been recorded in the
Sunshine Coast region in the six hours to 7pm. The heaviest rainfall in the past
two hours has been in the Killcoy, Stanley and Upper Mary catchments, with
totals up to 60 millimetres recorded. The rainband is expected to move south
during Sunday night.

Fast river rises have occurred in the Caboolture River resulting in minor
flooding at Caboolture. Further rises in the Caboolture River and Pine River
catchments are expected overnight Sunday.

Fast river rises have occurred in Woogaroo Creek resulting in moderate flooding
at Opossum. Further flooding is possible in the Brisbane and Ipswich
metropolitan creeks overnight Sunday.

Flood warnings are current for the Mary River, Sunshine Coast streams and the
Upper Brisbane and Lower Brisbane rivers.

Next Issue:
The next warning will be issued at about 11pm.

[Blackee]

Thanks to the BoM - Since 9am falls between Maryborough & Gold Coast

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[Blackee]

Some of the current river/creek levels are mindblowing
including Brisbane R at Gregor Ck - 13.32m and rising (Major Flood level is 7.5m)!!

[I_Love_Storms]

Some of the current river/creek levels are mindblowing
including Brisbane R at Gregor Ck - 13.32m and rising (Major Flood level is 7.5m)!!

That's crazy. I think there will be new headlines tomorrow re Brisbane flooding. Things have the potential to deteriorate dramatically.

[Petros]

Nup - this is a disaster.

Tonight and tomorrow night are both progged "purple" rain for the Brisbane catchment area (access3), already full and into the flood mitigation zone, the 2 big dams Wivehoe and Summerset will have to release fully (let in = out) by midday tomorrow imo. So 4th biggest flood on record for Brissie (also imo). Wait till a cyclone lands down Bundy way later in this amazing wet season!

Good luck all SE QLD'rs and stay safe.

[Lily]

Nup - this is a disaster. ... Good luck all SE QLD'rs and stay safe.

Couldn't have said it better myself, Petros. This is really very concerning, those poor people Channel 9 are tonight running "Australia Unites" to help the flood victims, can only hope that everyone digs deep once again to help their fellow Aussie.

[Blackee]

A fair and accurate assessment Petros.
Nothing short of disastrous!
Brisbane up to 71mm and a massive band is edging SW and will be unleashing plenty more rain overnight.(currently at Cape Moreton)

[Blackee]

EC forecast for Brisbane:
Monday - 173mm
Tuesday - 135mm
Total - 308mm

GFS 06z run agrees also!

[I_Love_Storms]

EC forecast for Brisbane:
Monday - 173mm
Tuesday - 135mm
Total - 308mm

GFS 06z run agrees also!

1974 all over again. Scary stuff. I am surprised the media aren't onto this in any great detail yet.

[Petros]

EC forecast for Brisbane:
Monday - 173mm
Tuesday - 135mm
Total - 308mm

GFS 06z run agrees also!

1974 all over again. Scary stuff. I am surprised the media aren't onto this in any great detail yet.

......and so are the posters on the WZ forum (being cynical, perhaps it goes against some AGW guideline - although this may be whats expected for AGW? ??).

[Blackee]

Have been closely following the thread Petros.
You feel helpless being 2000km away, but I do fear what is in store over the next 24-36 hours.

76mm now for Brisbane and going by the 256km radar, it has a rather large main course to digest before sunrise!

[Blackee]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast district, southern parts of the Wide Bay and
Burnett district and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt district.
Issued at 11:00 pm on Sunday 9 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 10pm EST, an upper level low was located over the
southern Capricornia. A surface trough was located near the Fraser coast. Both
of these systems are moving slowly west.

Heavy rain areas and thunderstorms are expected to continue about northern and
central parts of the Southeast Coast District, southern parts of the Wide Bay
and Burnett District, and northeastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite
Belt district. The heavy rain areas are expected to extend further south to the
New South Wales border and west to the Granite Belt overnight. Heavy falls may
lead to localised flash flooding and/or worsen existing river flooding.

Recent events: In the past 24 hours, Maleny has recorded 336mm, West Bellthorpe
331mm and Lindfield 301mm.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5am Monday

[Blackee]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast district, southern parts of the Wide Bay and
Burnett district and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt
district.
Issued at 5:00 am on Monday 10 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 4am EST, an upper level low was located over the southern
Capricornia. A surface trough was located near the Fraser coast. Both of these
systems are moving slowly west.

Heavy rain areas and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
Southeast Coast district, far southern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett
District and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt district. Heavy
falls may lead to localised flash flooding and/or worsen existing river
flooding.

Recent events: In the past 24 hours, West Bellthorpe recorded 343mm, Maleny
337mm, and Lindfield 313mm.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11am Monday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[Blackee]

Brisbane up to 103mm for the 24 hours.
Nambour and the Sunshine Coast have many totals well over 150mm.

D-day today for Brisbane and the Gold Coast with BoM forecasting up to 200mm over the next 24 hours.

EDIT: Brisbane topped out at 110.8mm for the 24hrs.

Will post other significant 24hr falls on the daily bulletin is issued.

[Blackee]

Latest Water Vapour chart, courtesy of BoM.

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