Victoria: Unsettled. November 20th-21st 2010

[Karl Lijnders]

A brief respite from the vicious rainfall events and maybe with some luck we can conjur up some thundery weather across VIC this weekend. Granted the pressure trough is not the strongest feature, but some residual cold air aloft may support some convection deep enough for scattered thunderstorms across the ranges with temps in the mid 20s.

Here is our very important moisture source as we go into E winds on the weekend....



Saturday on current prognosis will see isolated showers across the inland and thunderstorms over the NE and C ranges.



Sunday will see activity become scattered across the state with severe storms possible in the east.



Monday the activity moves to the east



So perhaps not so benign after all and maybe some fun chasing to be had!! Cross your fingers stormygirls and boys!

[Supercellimpact]

Yeah I was just looking at that, not the best setup but anything will do!! One or two models have something down and bom has nothing.. I'll have a listen to what BOM has to say at 5.30pm on ABC.

[Dane]

Hmm. looks pretty marginal, maybe some isolated showers or storms over the NE ranges, not expecting anything down here. In fact looks pretty dry here for the next week.

[typhoon29]

beware the weak trough/cold fronts they can bite! Remember the last weak cold front/trough, it spawned a couple of supercells!

I think this weekend will be rather unsettled just depends on where the tail of the trough wags to.

[I_Love_Storms]

Models will upgrade as the week wears on. Don't think we will see too much Saturday but Sunday we should see thunderstorms and possibly even some isolated heavy falls.

[Supercellimpact]

The latest storm cast has moved activity to the north east, as expected.

[Blackee]

Hmm, marginal at best IMO.
Models not buying it at the moment. Think you'll need to be lucky to be stuck under a storm, but hey things could change.

Am looking forward to a blast of warmer weather next week!

[adon]

Would be quite nice for the mallee at least to be dry for the next few weeks wile everyone is getting harvest over and done with. Looks like only an outside chance of storms so a lot of people would be happyt with that.

[Jake Smethurst]

Yes this weekend does not look very active at all in my opinion. Perhaps some isolated thunderstorm activity over the eastern ranges during Sunday, but minimal elsewhere.

As DJ says, warming up next week ahead of a trough. Discussion on this is in the General Weather section of the forum in the 'Looking towards' thread.

[schitzengiggles]

Models have scaled back a long, long way since the thread was opened.

[Karl Lijnders]

3mm here today from drizzle so not a bad little drop in the end.

Here is the latest for Sunday.

[Supercellimpact]

Everyone have a look at Thursday the 25th on Storm cast , looks good but will change

[Meso]

I think we are a better chance of seeing some "severe" storms from that than anything this wknd will bring. Trough coming across from the west Thursday as others have mentioned, so hopefully a trigger for some widespread action.

[Jake Smethurst]

It is interesting Karl. I dismissed everything for anywhere but the east for Sunday earlier, but latest US extending the instability a little further west. Just looking at that in a little more detail, conditions would probably be right for isolated thunderstorms to develop mainly along the ranges during the afternoon. Still a few days away, but will keep an eye on it.

[droughtbreaker]

2mm here today. Rain was quite heavy as I was coming home around 6pm, so must have been a few embedded showers in amongst the mizzly stuff.

GFS has an uncanny knack of picking storms out of setups that look extremely marginal, in my experience it is right more often than not. EC and the other models don't seem to have the same talent in this regard. Still, at this stage I would be very skeptical. It should remain fine IMO but we may be surprised.

Nice week of warm to hot weather ahead. Great for growth, drying out the excessive moisture around (never thought I'd ever say that again ), the grain crops that are in the middle of harvest, and giving us a taste of summer. Bad for locust attacks unfortunately, I assume there will be clouds of them by the end of this week. Let's just hope they don't have too much of an impact south of the ranges with everything so lush and green down here and gardens as spectacular as they are right now.

[schitzengiggles]

GFS has an uncanny knack of picking storms out of setups that look extremely marginal, in my experience it is right more often than not. EC and the other models don't seem to have the same talent in this regard.

GFS has been nothing short of brilliant in the last 8 weeks.

[Kris]

I think we might be short of a storm this weekend. Next weekend is already looking the goods for some isolated thunderstorm activity. After a week in the low 30's something should start to happen by Friday at the earliest.

[Didjman]

Kris, PM me if u r up for chasing the election weekend:D I am free after 1300 Sat/Sun.
Peter

[Supercellimpact]

Models are starting to agree with good falls of between 15mm to 40mm it's just the timing, but the trough will come though between thursday and Saturday but is now a matter of which day.

[Jake Smethurst]

Please keep the chat about next weeks potential in the General Weather section at this stage until a new thread is opened here. Thanks guys.

Otherwise, this weekend still remaining quite marginal. Eastern ranges on Sunday looks to be the best bet with very isolated thunderstorm activity.