Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[Blackee]

EC now giving me just 1mm for the whole "event". I say nothing.

Yet Bainrsdale is going for around 8mm based on EC.
Seems very odd to me Proteous!!

[Dane]

1.6mm's here so far, rain looks patchy on the radar at the moment, should thicken up later this afternoon, I hope. Mild here 17.3c.

[Karl Lijnders]

Things will develop as the day goes on. I can already read people this morning looking at the radar and thinking that it is a fizzer... Should ban that word lol!

5.5mm here and steady rain falling still. Nice start considering most models had less than 2mm til 10am!!!

[Blackee]

Lightning tracker already busy.
Small cell north of Hamilton throwing out a few sparks.

[Onetahuti]

5.5mm here and steady rain falling still. Nice start considering most models had less than 2mm til 10am!!!

3.6mm and 19.0C, overnight low so far has been 18.9C

[HarleyB]

EC now gives us 86mm in 12 hours from 2 oclock this afternoon and 99.7mm for the whole event up till Cup day!
Doubt we will get that much but if we do it will cause some problems for the lower parts of the town. Still hoping for AT LEAST 50mm though in the next 4 days. I guess we just have to wait and see what happens now.

Oh also some rain fell some time this morning, woke up to 2mm in the guage when up till now we should have had less than 1mm. Now for the fun stuff

[AUSSKY]

0.8mm in Trentham so far. Cloudbase 740m.

Jane

[Rhino]

EC upgrading this morning here, 52mm sat-sun now, almost a 20mm upgrade on what last nights run had and would be very happy if I got that, even 20mm would be good . Had some rain overnight, guesstimate 1-2mm, but must have come down pretty hard at one point as it woke me up. Now the wait begins.

Rhino.

[typhoon29]

morning from a farm between dunkeld and Hamilton on the Glenelg Hwy. It has rained here all night. Guestimating at least 20mm. Rather heavy this morning. This afternoon could be interesting too.

[Anthony Violi]

Looking fantastic, expect some wild weather this afternoon, if there are are any clear slots expect thunderstorms to develop. Most though will be embedded in the rainband itself once it forms. EC has 76mm for Lilydale, would be fantastic for that to come off.

Also expect widespread flooding, as mentioned earlier river, creeks, dams are all soaked and near capacity. Upper Yarra will for the first time in many many years have its spillway in action so that alone will cause significant problems for most of the Yarra Valley, especially if the next system is as strong as it looks like it will be.

[Petros]

Light drizzly showers started here just after 5am, now steady light rain from patchy high-based cloud, no breeze and baro steady on 1009 hPa.

I'm off to try to get an early round of golf in before the rain gets more serious.

[Lily]

Morning Have fun at golf Petros

21.6C and 61% RH, Pressure 983 hPa in Eildon currently. Not much in the way of rain here so far, uncomfortable, warm night's sleep, have woken to a vaguely wet deck but that's about it. Noticed last night that there's campers here that have set up in ditches - crazy!!! They're going to be rethinking their decision over the coming 24 hours I suspect.

[Petros]

Morning Have fun at golf Petros

21.6C and 61% RH, Pressure 983 hPa in Eildon currently. .......

Pressure here is 1009!!! There is going to be strong northerlies between us!!

[stratospear]

So far a non-event here. Smells of rain, but I don't see it...

[karenamelia]

Raining in Horsham now Started as light shower now heavier

[Blackee]

Lily, your pressure is way too low!
Add about 25 and you will be closer

[stevco123]

3.4mm here this morning.currently raining lightly. Minimum temp 16.4. It smells like one of those days where it will rain on and off the whole day lightly with heavier rain tonight, which fits in with the forecast.

[melsy]

My hubby and 7 year old son are off to eildon for their camping adventure this morning. Told them it isn't the best of ideas.
He's optimistic! I told him he's crazy.

Looking forward to what the next 24 hours has in store(and the house to myself) :

[Karl Lijnders]

AWF Update 9am.

Areas of rain in the west and south are continuing to develop and move from N-S. Isolated thunderstorms are also developing in the west along a strong troughline. In the NE of the state, areas of rain with moderate falls has developed over the past few hours and will continue for a good portion of today and become heavier about the NE ranges after 3pm with local thunderstorms.

For Central areas, rain areas have somewhat moved south with middle level showers and convection developing behind it. Rainfalls of 1-6mm across Melbourne this morning was achieved and has since boosted DPs somewhat. Some breaks in the cloud over the next couple of hours may stimulate thunderstorm development ahead of the heavy rain expected after 2pm.

The cold air field over Ceduna is expected to move ESE over Adelaide this afternoon seeing showers and thunderstorms there and that focus spilling over into the Mallee tonight with showers and storms building there before it slams into the back of the low pressure system forming and invigorates that complex enhancing rainfall over C and NE VIC.

Flood Watches will be updated on http://www.bom.gov.au/vic this morning so stay tuned for those.

Anticipating around 50-120mm for C and NE VIC this afternoon, overnight and tomorrow morning. The low pressure system will be barely moving for a period tonight with bands of rain circulating predominantly to the south and east of the complex with showers and storms with strong SW on it's western and northern sides.

Also watch for gales to develop over S VIC, particularly C VIC overnight into tomorrow as the low moves south and deepens through Sunday morning. Winds to 90kmh are possible.

Thunderstorms are also a risk with the BoM issuing thunderstorm charts at around 11am this morning. Suspecting there is a chance over the C and N of the state today in warmer air and a high convergence zone building.

Rainfall in the 24hrs to 9am:

Dartmoor: 23mm
Portland: 23mm
Casterton: 19mm
Mildura: 14mm
Birchip: 14mm

Next Update at 11am.

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[I_Love_Storms]

I think we will definitely see a STW for Flash flooding later this afternoon, maybe even a road weather alert as well