TC Laurence. December 10th-23rd 2009

[Anthony Violi]

Its an unbelievably intense system now, very well defined on the sat. hopefully doesnt encounter too much shear as it moves over land, the stronger it maintains its integrity as it moves into the trough the better for us. Still chopping and changing but very exciting.

[Blackee]

Appears to naked eye that Laurence is wobbling slightly SE.

[AUSSKY]

This morning's comment from AusStorm

"Very severe TC Laurence is presently located near 19.2 south and 120.3 east moving south/southwest 4 to 6kph, a very tight central convergence region and a strong eye wall feature with prominent clear eye, strong upper divergence, located over SST's near 30c, estimated midday pressure 940/945hpa, expected to deepen to near 931hpa at 1500hrs/919 at 1800hrs , inshore SST's near 31.5c, may achieve cat 5 prior to coast crossing. present tracking has the core passing southwest of Wallal later today or overnight. Wind gusts expected to achieve super TC status after 1500hrs and estimate maximum gusts to near 270/290kph and risk of 300kph near the coast.. The coastal crossing location is 50% ..50 kilometres southwest and northwest of Wallal with a strong risk of a crossing within 20klm of Wallal. After landfall the core will remain above cat 3 for at least 12 hours then rapidly decline to cat 1 and tropical low status."

[Jake Smethurst]

Yes, it should maintain cycline intensity over land for quite a while as it moves SE. That's good for us, the stronger it stays the better for the SE of the country.

[Blackee]

And I bow to your good judgement Mr Lijnders!! :lol:

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Bidyadanga and Pardoo are requested
to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following
warning.


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 80
Issued at 11:45 am WST on Monday, 21 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland
and adjacent inland areas including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Telfer.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for inland parts of the southwest Kimberley and
eastern Pilbara, extending a long way inland to the WA border and including
Warburton and Giles.

The Cyclone WARNING for Broome to Bidyadanga has been cancelled.

At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence was estimated to be
75 kilometres north of Wallal and
240 kilometres east northeast of Port Hedland
moving south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is intensifying as it moves southwards towards
the Eighty Mile Beach area of the Pilbara-Kimberley coast. Residents are warned
of a period of VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 285 kilometres per hour
developing during this afternoon. People in the area are specifically warned of
the VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE expected as the cyclone centre approaches the
coast. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with
DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

GALES are beginning along the coast between Bidyadanga and Wallal and gales and
DESTRUCTIVE winds are likely to extend further along the coast and inland during
the day, possibly reaching as far as Telfer by Tuesday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal parts of the western Kimberley and eastern
Pilbara today, extending to the inland eastern Pilbara on Tuesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises as a precautionary measure the following
community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near communities from Sandfire to Pardoo and inland to
Yarrie need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in Bidyadanga need to take action and get ready to shelter
from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from De Grey to Port Hedland and
inland to Marble Bar, Nullagine and Telfer need to prepare for cyclonic weather.

Communities in the southwest Kimberley and eastern Pilbara should listen for the
next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.1 degrees South 120.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 929 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Monday 21 December.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[Karl Lijnders]

Insane increase in strength over the last 24hrs. Should bomb further before hitting the coastline. Should see 200-300mm in the region over the coming 48hrs.

Loving the fact it is still a cat 1 towards the NW of SA!!

[Karl Lijnders]

Just starting to cross now. Goodbye Wallal!!!

[Jake Smethurst]

And just to be a smarty pants I thought I would put this smily in this thread..... Do you know what it is??? :lol:

But, back on topic ... the cyclone has crossed the coast, and the BoM have issued their latest track map, keeping the cyclone intensity up for a fair way inland.

And that is real low David, imagine that, I would just want to expereince the pressure that low, and the weather it brings!!!

[droughtbreaker]

Whatever is at Mandora station is getting obliterated as we speak. As it's a pretty large cyclone it is just unrelenting up there with 200km/hr gusts for hours.

Just looked up Streetview and there is literally nothing there. The AWS would just about be it. Not a tree in sight, nothing, no power lines, no dwellings. A massive stroke of luck that the cyclone made a direct hit on the AWS.

[admin]

I know, I know Jake Cyclone 1 and Cyclone 2, signed off with Storm Warning :lol:

[johnno]

And lastest update he is still tracking SSE and has been roughly for 24-36 hours now I think by this stage it was expected to turn SE but hasn't yet small variations like this could make all the differance to our rainfall system later this week and weekend

[Blackee]

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds and Heavy Rainfall
for people in southwest Alice Springs District, including Yulara
Issued at 11:00 am CST Tuesday 22 December 2009

Synoptic Situation: Severe Tropical Cyclone "Laurence" is currently over the
Pilbara Region in WA and is expect to weaken into a deep low as it approaches
the WA/NT border during Wednesday afternoon.

Widespread damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h are expected to develop during
Wednesday afternoon and evening in the southwest Alice Springs District,
including Yulara and Kulgera, but excluding Alice Springs.

Heavy rainfall is expected to develop on Wednesday over the southwest Alice
Springs District and may cause significant stream rises.

A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for this system - telephone 1300 659
210.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose
outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses.

The next warning is due to be issued by 05:00 pm Tuesday.

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks as though the TC is spurning some severe storms on the S coast of WA...

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR322.loop.shtml#skip

[Blackee]

Laurence still a Category 2 as it knocks on the door of Cotton Creek. Not in a million years would those there think they'd witness a C2 cyclone!!

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 91
Issued at 8:45 pm WST on Tuesday, 22 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for the far east of the Pilbara and the northwest
and central Interior, including Cotton Creek, Warburton and Giles.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Laurence was estimated to be
20 kilometres west of Cotton Creek and
115 kilometres south southeast of Telfer
moving southeast at 23 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is currently in the vicinity of Cotton Creek in the
far eastern Pilbara moving southeast. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 130
kilometres per hour are possible at Cotton Creek and Punmu until midnight
tonight.

Laurence should continue weakening on Wednesday although GALES with wind gusts
to 100 kilometres per hour may extend towards the NT/SA border reaching the
vicinity of Giles and perhaps Warburton during Wednesday aftenoon.

Heavy rainfall is falling over the eastern Pilbara with rainfall totals in
excess of 100 mm possible near the south side of the track. Heavy rainfall
should contract to the Interior overnight and extend to the NT/SA border region
during Wednesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises as a precautionary measure the following
community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Cotton Creek and Punmu need to remain in shelter.
ALL CLEAR: People in and near Telfer, Woodie Woodie and Nifty are advised that
the wind danger has passed and you should proceed with caution.
Communities in the eastern Pilbara and Interior should listen for the next
advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 22.7 degrees South 122.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 23 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and weakening
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

[Blackee]

[Blackee]

Laurence is now barrelling east, pretty much as expected. IMO GFS has done a pretty fine job of forecasting his path, including 2 landfalls, a re-entry into the Indian Ocean and what looks to be a whirlwind tour though the middle of the continient into NSW.

Lets hope his speed spawns storms and some rain late today into tomorrow.

[johnno]

Latest update it has it going SE Wes at 26 km/hr so not sure where your getting the East from mate? It was travelling SSE until late last night then after midnight it started veering SE with more speed still hasn't gone ESE or East yet

[Blackee]

Haha John, I was lazy and didn't check the latest update. I was purely going off the Satvis and he appears to be going predominately east.

The more SE the better hey!!

[johnno]

Lol its ok mate we all get lazy time to time.

Yeah I'm egging it on to go more SE the next 12 hours

[Blackee]

Yeah, I keep looking at the track map, hoping the path is shifting closer to Warburton than to Giles.