Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.

[hillybilly]

Messy system coming up which might ease the current dry conditions impacting much of southeast Australia. Very complicated with an initial weak low drifting southeast of Tasmania then an approaching front which cuts off and eventually forms a low somewhere near Bass Strait. Finally a third low develops in the Tasman Sea. The details are very messy with a big spread in forecast rainfall.

Before the low, very warm conditions, particularly for Victoria and South Australia which might see some late season records.

[Gordon]

Having the Melbourne radar out of action is sure to help with this system - whenever it's down, we seem to get good rain (insert exasperated emoji).

[StratoBendigo]

Starting to see some semblance of alignment in the forecasts. Perhaps 15mm here? Could be the most rain we've had since the start of December. If we're lucky.

At least it looks like keeping the Western Australian desert heat away from us for a bit.

[hillybilly]

Progs probably looking better tonight but still a big spread. Not very confident on details, but tending to think about 20mm here. Western Victoria also looks pretty promising. Will all bomb into a deep low off the NSW coast so risk of more serious wave damage up there.

Meanwhile heat rolls on with three more near 30C days for much of Victoria. Very isolated showers tomorrow and event the odd rumble, similar today, and a bit more extensive for Tasmania. The single big cell west of Colac has dropped locally near 15mm, but is fading now.

[StratoBendigo]

I'm well and truly fed up with this heat. Yesterday wasn't too bad though.

Rain forecasts seem to have disappeared for Sunday. Anzac weekend looks more promising.

One thing that might deliver decent winter rains this year is the strong likelihood of a -ve IOD going into Winter-Spring. If we get enough NW cloudbands with rain, then this drought might begin to breakdown.

[Tassiedave]

29 degrees forecast for Melbourne. What is the latest 30 degree maximum for April in Melbourne if it gets there?

[StratoBendigo]

29 degrees forecast for Melbourne. What is the latest 30 degree maximum for April in Melbourne if it gets there?

April 20th 2019 it got to 30.2c in Melb. I think that's the latest iirc.

[QldTwister]

Hit 30.2c in the city today another 30c day, what a summer and so nice out there today this kinda heat mid late April with no strong Nly is impressive.

Showerey cooler weather for esater weekend with regular fronts and troughs after that most should see rain next week patterns are a chnaging

[Lighthouse]

Farmers around the district have started to shoot stock as record heat combined with record low rainfall turns one of Australia’s traditionally reliable agricultural districts to dust with no feed and no water. South Australia is even worse with even big trees beginning to die. Absolute disastrous drought that no one seems keen to even acknowledge. Keep watching for rain but every hope of something disappears into the never never.

[Tassiedave]

Adelaide average this April 27.2 - April avge is 22.2. The last 8 days have been over 28 degrees. I know a lot of people now are shy about highlighting weather extremes on social media for fear of being attacked by hordes of people who don't believe in climate change. Some of whom can be really rude. At least it is mid April now and they can't respond with "It's summer"

[Gordon]

At the very least, the blunt stats say that western Vic and much of southern SA is in extreme drought; exceptional dry coupled with exceptional heat. No room for interpretation or opinion there.

Back to the actual thread, and looks like you might have scored a shower this afternoon Lighthouse? The cells kept dying on our doorstep here .

[QldTwister]

Yeah its a disastrous drought in SA and western Vic west of Echuca to Melbourne, but sadly we live in world out of sight out of mind, and everyone so busy/worried about there little bubble it is what it is least its going into the wet season and not out of it and pattern is changeing in coming weeks but sadly we have no control if only we did.

This warm wave is crazy like summer out there hot day, after hot day 2 days of stroms to my SW on sunset crazy for mid april loving it personally and getting outside as much as i can.

Showery Sun and Mon across the state but only light falls for most in the 1-5mm range some will be lucky with 5 to 15mm.
Anzac weekend also more showers but again no soaking rain for awhile I think maybe May

[StratoBendigo]

All the forecasts look a bit grim again. That low in the Tasman is simply reinforcing the stupid ridge over us.

[hillybilly]

Adelaide average this April 27.2 - April avge is 22.2. The last 8 days have been over 28 degrees. I know a lot of people now are shy about highlighting weather extremes on social media for fear of being attacked by hordes of people who don't believe in climate change. Some of whom can be really rude. At least it is mid April now and they can't respond with "It's summer"

Apparently the run of days is a record. No surprises as heat records are falling all over the place atm. So really horrible photos emerging of damage to trees and very difficult conditions for farmers with the combo of record temperatures and record low rainfall.

Those on social media argue because for some reason it is about your identity. When they finally give up the arguing, unfortunately temperatures rise for a decade or two and sea levels will rise for centuries even if we drop CO2 emissions to zero because of the lag in the climate system.

Heat to roll for a few more days and tbh nothing cold showing up before May. Guess that means we may well have our warmest April or record or at least come close.

Showers but pretty patchy today, becoming more widespread on the weekend proper. We’ve had a few showers down here the past 24 hours with 1mm. Quite convective but very patchy.

[Pengaz]

Down on the bass coast this weekend and woke up to a surprise thunderstorm during the night that dropped 2-3mm locally. Cleared to a warm morning.

[Tassiedave]

Melbourne forecast to be 30 again. Two consecutive 30 degrees days this deep into April would be extraordinary.

[weathergasm]

Absolutely sick of this hot weather. Whatever normal is, surely this is very far from it.

[StratoBendigo]

April 1985 had a similar mid-April heatwave FWIW.

Anyway, 00z EC and AXS-G look very interesting for next weekend...

[Macedonian]

24° at Mt Macedon AGAIN! It's like some kind of hellish ground hog day. Still 19° at 10pm.
Heat and dry is wrecking the autumn colours here. Trees colour up and then they straight away go crispy and brown. Hasn't deterred about a million tourists coming out here to look at brown foliage, dead grass and dust.

[hillybilly]

Would expect just about every run of days above record has fallen this month now. Insane weather for six weeks from winter. Nice beach weather, well except on the east coast where waves are riding record high sea levels and causing massive erosion. Definitely not wise to live on sand dunes in a warming climate. People seem not to understand Bruuns rule which was developed way back in 1962 which tells you what to expect long term when it comes to sea level rise.

Pattern finally starts to break down today. Hot for Victoria and warm for Tasmania but some showers and storms spreading east. This system will be patchy, probably best for southern Tasmania, western Victoria and Gippsland, but with lots of stray showers and storms and a system which swings from northeast to northwest to west to south to southeast the direction of showers will go through almost a full 360 swing.

Nothing down here overnight but really humid with DPs in the low teens. System is tapping some decent moisture.