Major rain event for northeast Australia: Will it edge south? March 25-

[hillybilly]

Thread to watch and speculate on the huge rain event which will effect northeast Australia, and possibly edge south towards the end of March. Quite a split in progs, so could be entirely dry or see good falls. Month has been a big disappointment for most of southern Australia and really warm so do need something soon.

For Queensland, this event may well break lots of rainfall records.

[BigTom]

Random lightning strike on the radar, east of Dandenong. Wonder if it’s a glitch?

[Gordon]

Thread to watch and speculate on the huge rain event which will effect northeast Australia, and possibly edge south towards the end of March. Quite a split in progs, so could be entirely dry or see good falls. Month has been a big disappointment for most of southern Australia and really warm so do need something soon.

Good thread, thanks for starting it hillybilly. My 'glass half full' self thinks all that northern moisture only needs a nudge to get down here, and the something from nothing system last week shows what's possible.

My 'glass half empty' self thinks we've been burnt so often this last year by promising setups that never delivered

Last night the weather app on my phone (of dubious quality generally!) suddenly forecast 35mm for us this weekend, but it was gone again by this morning. Guess we watch, wait and hope!

[StratoBendigo]

Hmmmmm.... I'm not optimistic yet, especially after last week's mega-fail.

I struggle to see it getting past Broken Hill and Dubbo from the North this week.

[StratoBendigo]

Incidentally, it does feel a bit like Autumn 1991, 2004, and 2018-2019. Absolutely bone dry and warm into April etc.

[Gordon]

Hmmm. Seems like a loose trend for the models to support decent rain (25mm plus) for some of eastern Vic and west central from later in the weekend and into next week.

Comes and goes from run to run and model to model; for example 06z run for today on GFS. Liking the trend, hoping it results in something.

[hillybilly]

Damn models no clearer. Keep jumping on and off. Looks good for eastern Victoria and probably northeast Tasmania. Otways, west central, south Gippsland and eastern Tasmania pretty good chance for something. Rest of the southeast probably a long shot.

To the north crazy rainfall totals. Daily falls approaching 200mm and weekly falls locally heading towards 500mm. Great for the farmers but must be mayhem up there. Be a huge surge of water into Lake Eyre in a couple of months.

Couple of showers here overnight. Just dribbles but when it’s super dry anything’s welcome.

[Lighthouse]

The ants in my garden are reasonably busy building up their nests at present. Hopefully they know something.

[StratoBendigo]

Things are getting worse here. So much bare ground. Empty dams. Nothing in the forecast models.

Grim.

[hillybilly]

Progs shifting it all east Still some showers, and probably rain for east Gippsland and northeast Tasmania but not a big event.

Crazy falls in Queensland with massive flooding. Records falling widely.

[StratoBendigo]

Well, Lake Eyre will be have a huge amount of water in it this winter. Biggest floods in its catchment since 1974 apparently.

Meantime, nothing here for the next 2 weeks. It doesn't want to rain anymore.

[hillybilly]

Ok, looks like another dud. Something is screwy with our weather. I guess we all know things have changed

In the past massive rain events in Queensland usually filtered down into the southeast. Just picking off a few of the big drought breakers/inland rain events, Feb 1939, March 1983, January 1974, Feb 2010, Feb 2011. All big inland rains and it spilled well into Victoria, and here we are with perhaps the biggest event of all for Lake Eyre and diddly squat.

Will be some rain for east Gippsland and showers in west central and eastern Tasmania but overall just another promising event that fades as it gets closer

[StratoBendigo]

My theory is that warmer than normal Tasman Sea has dragged moisture away from SE Australia this summer.

Anyway, absolute boredom for the next two weeks.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

50% <1mm

And it’s steady raining “rain”.

Radar glitching with beams….

[hillybilly]

Bit of a surprise to see the rain dig south into central overnight. Good to get a lucky break. Some half decent falls near the ranges and up towards the river. Been so dry up there. Elsewhere heavier rain for Gippsland and some showers for southern Tas, with storms in the northeast. The monsoonal low is now down near Sydney with a second low near Brisbane. Such a shame to have such a massive plume of moisture and not get a big autumn break

[Didjman]

Mother natures forecasters were correct!! We noticed and hills in the garden in spots we had not seen them the other day. Currently 6.4mm in the Nylex with more to come-after a few rumbles around 2am.

[StratoBendigo]

2.5mm in the gauge. Barely settles the dust. Surprised we got anything tbh.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

5mm of rain not turn turn the nose up on.

Ant hills….

I had a dirty roach.

[Tassiedave]

Depressing seeing every model run push Tuesday/Wednesday's LOW further south east to the point where it virtually has no impact on Victoria or Tasmania

[Lucia]

3.5 mls here in Lilydale, keep the grass green for a bit.