Warm ahead of a trough with showers and possible storms: January 20-25

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Jan 19, 2025 6:23 am

Slowly warming up ahead of a weak trough and possible low around the middle of the week. The system is quite small and moves west to east so its latitude of formation will matter a lot. Could be locally good falls, but other places will miss out completely.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Sun Jan 19, 2025 9:57 am

Nice to have at least something on the horizon again. Even a dust-settler would be welcome here.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Jan 20, 2025 8:27 am

Gordon wrote: Sun Jan 19, 2025 9:57 am Nice to have at least something on the horizon again. Even a dust-settler would be welcome here.

Yep. Stuck in a bit of a rut atm, it feels and so much heat around the country. Half assed monsoon not helped by negative SAM. Some crazy temps to our west with Perth looking at a week of mass around 40C and minima in the mid teens. Horrible and possibly record breaking run, particularly at night.

Getting a bit of rain here atm. EC suggest maybe a mm or two. Humid again, with DPs in the mid teens.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Jan 20, 2025 10:23 pm

Very very dry here at present. No end in sight to our dry spell.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Jan 21, 2025 6:29 am

Unfortunately the low is slowly fading. Just a weak trough now with a sequence of weak fronts. Not much in it

west coast Tasmania will do ok, but that is about it.

Heat returns then on Sunday and Monday. Monday is the hot one, but front timed for around the middle of the day. It it’s later it will be a stinker. Earlier and it will mostly land in the middle 30’s. Really is turning into a hot summer almost everywhere. Fortunately we’ve escaped the combo of a Tasman Sea block and approaching front as this has the feel of a 2009 heatwave to me if the highs park in the wrong spot. Fortunately atm, not looking like that in the progs.

Ryant1234 · Post by **Ryant1234** » Tue Jan 21, 2025 8:43 am

Wasn't expecting a 37 maximum at the viewbank site today.

33 Max in melbourne city. Quite a big difference. Usually it's 2 degrees

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Jan 21, 2025 1:23 pm

Already hit 38c today. Yuck.

I hope we get a cloud-free evening to see the comet. Been a bit frustrating last few days in that regard.

Ryant1234 · Post by **Ryant1234** » Tue Jan 21, 2025 3:16 pm

Viewbank was almost 10 degrees higher than the melbourne site earlier.

Bit of humidity today. Looks like there is none in Bendigo

Lighthouse · Post by **Lighthouse** » Tue Jan 21, 2025 5:09 pm

HB, if we get a weather setup like 2009 then God help us. The Otways are timber dry and there is no rain on the horizon. We’ve been lucky and unlucky so far this month with a lot of easterly and southerly winds but no rain to go with it. The problem now is that it’s so dry the fire season could still be in play at Easter unless something changes.

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Tue Jan 21, 2025 6:26 pm

Great few days down the beach just magic evenings so nice
Sly came in early today and windy gusty Sly, by the bay annoying, but first hot sunny day and its windy lol cant have it all i suppose.

Away from coast another hot day today but cooler next few days thanks to weak fronts troughs and prolonged Slys no rain though just spit here and there.

Locally rainfall wise we ok over 60mm this month from storms but much of state very very dry

Working Sunday Monday hoping front delayed so can enjoy great beach day after work Monday
Bay 22c atm nice

Looks like pattern change in early Feb with Monsoon finally getting cranking but Neg SAM def killing us here go south lol

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:21 am

Finally got a proper front here this morning. Not much in it but has flushed out the hot air that’s been over TAS for a few days. It hasn’t got to the temps seen on the mainland but for here has been warm and dewpoint have been exceptional, mostly in the mid to high teens here.

Trough for tomorrow but unfortunately mostly a just a western Tasmania, east Gippsland and south coast NSW event. Will usher in a few cooler days, but not help with the drought and dry conditions. Spike day for Sunday (out west) and Monday central and eastern. Fortunately timing means we don’t get the full impact of the heat, but will still get close to 40C for much of VIC.

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 6:26 am

Unfortunately each model update seems to get worse on this system. Looks good for northwest Tasmania, ok for Gippsland. Most other areas just dribbles. Think a chance that good stream showers will set up over the bay. Given the fairly southerly flow, that will probably favour the northern suburbs of Melbourne. With SST really high, they can deliver quickly.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 10:57 am

Just putting this here, since the same would be done if it was a record heat/fire event despite being thousands of kilometres away. Deep snow on a beach in Florida, despite being told such events won't be happening again as recently as 2013

Yeah, yeah, i know. It's not that they won't happen, but when they do happen they'll be more extreme. Sorry, but the newspaper clipping i have clearly says it shouldn't happen again.

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 12:54 pm

Yeah amazing snow storm over there record falls in TX, LA ,FL, New Orlaens over 20cm snow just amazing lots of great pics of snow on the beach wish that happened here

boring and cool to mild and dry next week or so just 1 hot day in outlook

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 9:19 pm

stevco123 wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2025 10:57 am Just putting this here, since the same would be done if it was a record heat/fire event despite being thousands of kilometres away. Deep snow on a beach in Florida, despite being told such events won't be happening again as recently as 2013
Yeah, yeah, i know. It's not that they won't happen, but when they do happen they'll be more extreme. Sorry, but the newspaper clipping i have clearly says it shouldn't happen again.

Last year was the hottest on record, the year before that was the previous record. Last year had the highest global sea levels on record, the highest atmospheric humidity, the highest thickness values, the lowest glacier extent, the lowest sea ice extent and lowest volume ever measured by man. It’s been an impressive event for the US but so what? It doesn’t disprove global warming any more than a hot day in Perth proves it. Global warming is the warming of the planet over decades, now amounting to +1.5C.

I look forward to the quote that stated that it would never snow again on a beach in the US made in 2013. It’ll snow again, but as with every cold record they get less and less common as the planet warms.

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 9:23 pm

System firing up nicely east of Melbourne and north of Hobart

some big falls in northern Tasmania with some spots clocking 50mm. Yet to trouble the scorer down here.

Hoping to squeeze out a few showers before a pretty unpleasant Monday. Certainly one to watch for a nasty spike in temperatures and bad fire weather conditions.

Post by **hillybilly** » Fri Jan 24, 2025 5:53 am

Mixed bag on the rain. Good falls northern Tasmania and Gippsland, and in a few pockets around Melbourne. Was some nice cells briefly around the Essendon area and foothill suburbs in the eastern burbs, with a few spot falls in the 15-20mm range.

Now a couple of nicer days, before a stinker on Monday. Could well see temps top 43C over the western plains and spikes to around 45C in the Mallee. Nasty day.