Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

[Didjman]

A trough will be slowly crossing Vic between the above dates. GFS is bullish about Sunday atm with LIs of -6 and Cape above 1400 over a large area from Echuca to Ballarat. It's early days, but if only indicative - could be a great chase day One to watch!
https://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html ... :null:0#sc

The trough is currently sitting along the Vic/Sa border:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 35.70,3961

[hillybilly]

Thanks for starting Didj. Looks promising, first long lived humid thundery event of summer. Going to get hot, particularly inland and be very humid. The event could well stick around to middle of next week, with a pause around Monday with a weak ridge.

Suspect coastal parts on the mainland might struggle a bit with sea breezes. Down here the mountain basically sit on the coast so often less of an issue.

Such strange weather atm with La Niña now firmly established, but monsoon weeks late, and most of inland Australia cooking. Meanwhile the US suffering unprecedented mid winter wild fires, and solid cold sweeping the eastern states. Insurance costs are not going to get lower with these events.

[QldTwister]

Yeah lovely day today with an evening storm popping up, well east of Melbourne sign of things to come

Fri/Sat will see thunderstorms to North and east of Melb, may get into outter burbs but those near coast and bay unliklely

Big Storm day west and north of Melbourne Sunday and north and east Vic on Monday so yeah those further inland great week but far west and NW to mostly miss out also think most of Melb will too but high 20s low 30s convective most days and storms in distance be nice.

Tues mostly sunny warm to hot stray strom then more showers stroms Wed/thurs with front or low models all over place.

Loving this summer

[hillybilly]

Starting to get hot out there for today. Will nudge low 30s in hotter parts if TAS, and high 30s Victoria. Pretty humid and the odd shower and storm on the ranges. More widespread storms and showers tomorrow. Question for me is how much the sea breeze influence storms and if they roll of the ranges.

Next week has lows and troughs all over the shop. Going to be hot, humid, and showers and storms for days over a large area. May get a spike day for the on Wednesday then a major low.

[Lighthouse]

Struggling to see much for Western Victoria and the Surf Coast, just more heat. Running 3.2C above average for month after two previous months of above 2.5C daytime averages. Humidity will temper fire danger next week but the bush just gets drier. Nearing the halfway mark of summer, when will these higher temperatures begin to moderate?

[Sean]

Struggling to see much for Western Victoria and the Surf Coast, just more heat. Running 3.2C above average for month after two previous months of above 2.5C daytime averages. Humidity will temper fire danger next week but the bush just gets drier. Nearing the halfway mark of summer, when will these higher temperatures begin to moderate?

Not until the monsoon arrives. But even when/if it does, if it's a crappy one, the temps will stay high until late Feb, early March probably

[hillybilly]

Normal is well above average nowadays, so no real surprises tbh. Oz last year was +1.5C. Down here the warmth has been very persistent but the great rain and sea breezes temper it. A very humid max of 27C. Good friend works for the fish farms here, and they are nervous again because the SSTs are so hot. At 5m it’s already over 17C which is the point where salmon stop growing and disease takes off. Another issue is huge swarms of subtropical and tropical jelly fish. We’re had multiple waves of various types, and currently have huge numbers of moon jelly fish. Their main predator is turtles. Jelly fish might sound harmless if they don’t sting (and these don’t), but the slime clogs the fish gills and can kill them.

Progs look good but details will matter a lot. Unfortunately probably a bit of a miss for western Victoria and SA, but other areas should do well. Had some really nice cells go up over the ranges here, but stay well away from towns.

[WeatherViewer]

Clouds popping up directly west of Truganina.

[QldTwister]

This is the life, this is summer, best weather hot humid sunny with storm chances every day

30/16c here cu builiding to the west light Nly winds

Sounding looks unstable on Melbourne trace, so look for SB boundary, ranges to trigger storms and storm outflows to trigger more

More widespread stroms tomorrow, bit less monday more widespread and windy Wednesday

[93ben]

@WeatherViewer I fixed your post. If you want to share images from imgur in the future, all you need to do is paste the URL and it will show up like above.

[WeatherViewer]

@WeatherViewer I fixed your post. If you want to share images from imgur in the future, all you need to do is paste the URL and it will show up like above.

Thank you sir, appreciate it.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

James. James.
That was thunder.
And big drops.
Tingie spots on Tin roof to start.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Tropical

IMG_0935.jpeg (2.52 MiB) Viewed 929 times

[hillybilly]

Some nice storms over Melbourne’s east. Slow movement so expect some decent totals.

Really humid and hot here. Few cells going up well west of here and to the north. Waiting to see if the cap breaks. Tomorrow looks wet.

[Ryant1234]

Interesting how that storm from the SW suburbs is heading in a NE direction. Don't see that often.

I'm hoping it hits Epping and doesn't vanish before it hits here.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

See flooding at Bunyip. 57mm

[Didjman]

Could be a good chase day - just waiting for storm forecast. Vertical and horizontal shear is forecast in the upper levels. Good chance of hail (as on aviation forecast), and heavy rain too. Storms will be slow moving so flash flooding is possible.

[Didjman]

Thunderstorm Forecast
Issued at 6:42 am Sunday, 12 January 2025,
Valid until midnight on Sunday, 12 January 2025.

THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (>10% chance of thunder within 10km of a point) across most of Victoria, LIKELY (>30%) across most districts except the far west and some coastal areas. Thunderstorms developing in the morning in the southwest, then from late morning across remaining areas, becoming most likely during the late afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY (>30% chance if a thunderstorm occurs) in the central and eastern ranges, the North East and Gippsland in the afternoon and evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (>10% chance if a thunderstorm occurs) across a broad area of central and eastern Victoria from late morning onwards.

HAZARDS: HEAVY RAINFALL is likely and DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL are possible in severe thunderstorms.

OTHER POSSIBILITIES: a slight (<10% if a thunderstorm occurs) risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS about coastal parts of West and South Gippsland and parts of the Central district from early afternoon.

image.png (260.17 KiB) Viewed 712 times

[stevco123]

So basically the usual for Melbourne, like the last 2 days. Move on. Next system please...

[hillybilly]

Wet 24 hours coming up for central and eastern parts of Tasmania and Victoria. Very humid low levels, strong instability and a trough deepening into a weak Bass Strait low. Would not be surprised to see plenty of 20-50mm totals. Being so moist expect it may well be quiet murky storm activity with lots of pulsing storms merging into rain.

Down here in Tasmania very messy radar this morning. Upslide building on the east coast and convection going up further south. Should peak pretty close to Hobart. Dewpoint are a ridiculously high nudging high teens to 20C. Been a really tropical summer down here and SSTs around Hobart are now nearly 20C. Great swimming, but jelly fish by the millions (latest are the moon jelly fish) and salmon farms on edge with temperatures now above the threshold for stress in the fish