Becoming warm with a possible thundery change: November 11-13

Post by **hillybilly** » Sat Nov 09, 2024 6:34 am

Bit of an inbetween event thread with warmer weather to start the new week. There is a trough for Wednesday with some showers and a possible storm in the offering. The main action is in NSW where a weak low is likely to form, but further south we might get a bit. Hopefully this delivers something ahead of a hot and probably windy Saturday coming up in a week.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:39 am

Picked up 1.4mm yesterday with the weak front. Temps edging up now. Maybe some showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

The weekends system looks a bit more hopeful, though a hot Saturday. Could be quite windy, so fire indices will be up.

Australis(Shell3155) · Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:56 pm

Yesterday Clouds

Australis(Shell3155) · Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:25 pm

Even a spot of moisture this afternoon
2.15pm blue
6.15pm not so blue.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Nov 12, 2024 6:23 am

Unstable day today for Victoria with decent moisture, bit of instability and a weak trough. Thinking sea breezes will be important and tend to keep things away from the coastal fringe. Mostly fine for Tasmania. Change for tomorrow will bring a bit more activity.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Nov 12, 2024 12:19 pm

No rain here today so far, despite the instability.

Saturday looks hot (mid-30s), but most of the forecast models have downgraded their rain totals for the weekend to negligible amounts here.

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Tue Nov 12, 2024 12:55 pm

Bit of instability developing North of Melbourne
Fingers crossed !

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Nov 13, 2024 5:56 am

Nice day here yesterday but quite hazy with smoke from local burn offs. Otherwise a non event so far. Some very light showers around, but nothing local above a mm.

Mixed bag for VIC. Spot falls over 25mm in central while other spots scored less than a mm. Best overall out east and near the coast.

Trough incoming but not well timed… be much better if it was at 4pm.

This pattern of warmth and patchy showers looks like continuing. Saturday could get quite toastie, though still a fair way short of records.

Macedonian · Post by **Macedonian** » Wed Nov 13, 2024 7:01 am

We had 3mm yesterday. It's sad to be counting such pathetic amounts in November.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Nov 13, 2024 8:26 am

Macedonian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 7:01 am We had 3mm yesterday. It's sad to be counting such pathetic amounts in November.

2.5mm here. 5mm mtd

Pengaz · Post by **Pengaz** » Wed Nov 13, 2024 9:18 am

7.5mm here, 4.5mm from a thunderstorm with hail around 7pm last night and then another 3mm from a heavy shower earlier this morning.

Just enough to keep things green a bit longer and take the edge off recent dry spell. If we hadn’t got some of those decent drops in September and October, it would have been a very different story here.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:23 pm

3mm here as well. Just settles the dust for a day.

As for the weekend - purely an Eastern Vic system at this stage. Nothing much here by the looks of it.

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Nov 14, 2024 6:32 am

2mm here, 5mm for the week, 7mm for the month. Comfortably above the lowest on record for November, but sitting about 90% below average. This weather is certainly wacky with swings from record dry to record wet to record dry (give or take). Not much is normal anymore.

Progs don’t look that great. Hot Saturday, particularly Victoria with strong and gusty winds and low humidity. Then a stinker of a night with winds up. Front Sunday but looks dry for most. A bit out east and for Tasmania. Mainly dribbles. Guess new thread for that sequence. Ironically should get a bit of snow down here on the mountain for Monday, and could be quite heavy in the southwest mountains.

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:08 am

Just a couple of mm here. 3mm MTD and a total of just 5mm in the past 4 weeks. Everything is very dry now and the landscape is browning rapidly, which will only accelerate this weekend with the hot winds.

Still no significant rain showing up in the models except perhaps eastern areas, despite the IOD being negative for several weeks now. Strange times...