Becoming warm to hot then possible thundery change: November 2-

[hillybilly]

Messy week ahead with a temperature roller coaster, and a couple of summery days, particularly around Saturday/Sunday and again around Wednesday/Thursday. Quite a bit of wind with the systems so expect some fire weather warnings to be posted. Temps near the river well get close to 40C, but rest of VIC mostly low 30s and TAS mostly mid 20s.

Rainfall odds don’t look great, but the system on Thursday shows some potential and could well produce some rumbles. Big split on the progs doesn’t leave one too confident.

[hillybilly]

Progs showing a big split for next week between a front on Wednesday and a front on Thursday. The later front makes Thursday and absolute scorcher. Otherwise not much change.

Warm weekend, with quite pleasant conditions, though Saturday night looks pretty hot and windy.

[hillybilly]

Frost here this morning with a minimum of 0.7C. 1.4mm in the gauge. Dry air but still managed to squeeze out a few high based coldies. Seasons flip this week. From almost winter to summer.

[hillybilly]

Nice Saturday through the winds got a bit nasty. Bit feral this morning with nasty dry air over Victoria and gusty showers down here, but ranges are really shreading them. Unfortunately the moisture on this system isn’t great.

Wednesday looks hot. Strong winds and dry air so the first spike day for fire danger. Latest batch of progs suggest mid to high 30s around Melbourne and touching 40C in the north. Lucky the days isn’t coming on Tuesday as it would have been a pretty nasty Cup Day.

Unfortunately not really seeing much rain in the offering away from western Tasmania. Some showers but really hit and miss.

Btw how’s Spain Top rainfall of 700mm in 24 hours, at a site with an annual average of 450mm. Not sure I can recall something like that anywhere in the world before. The area can get heavy falls very rarely with 500mm in 48 hours back in 1957, but this is something entirely else Record hot ocean waters fed the system so unusual set up.

[Macedonian]

Is it windy in Melbourne?
I've seen people posting about the wind/pollen on a gisborne FB group.
It has been dead calm at my place on Mt Macedon all day.
Spectacular looking day, warm but would swap the lot for a bit of rain.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Was windy overnight, think was 45klm gust max this morning..

See the Alice had 44.5 today

[snowfall]

Looks like we'll be having our first hot, windy, wild day for the season on Wednesday. Unfortunately, models aren't keen on any significant rain, at least this week.

We could really do with some rain here. We finished October on 51mm, which is OK though below average. But we have only had 2mm since the 18th October. I'm already seeing signs of the landscape drying out, which will only accelerate with the sort of weather coming this week. November is typically a good, reliable month here for rainfall, and one of our wettest months but it's looking a bit dicey at the moment.

That said, the IOD has been well into negative territory for the past few weeks. Don't know if it will sustain, as it's very late in the season, but maybe there's a little hope, if some extra tropical moisture can be pulled down to the southeast, maybe later in the month or December?

[hillybilly]

Yep, unfortunately progs are dry. It’s really getting crisp for much of Victoria, particular area west of Melbourne extending basically to Ceduna. Quite large area are running lowest on record for the February to October period. Reminds me of the lead up to Ash Wednesday and the 2006 fires, so hopefully we can get some proper rain before summer proper hits otherwise it’s going to be a long one. What doesn’t really make sense is the drivers should be favourable, but rainfall up to July was really ordinary, and since then the negative SAM episodes have been dry for most of the mainland with dry blustery westerly winds.

Becoming hotter tomorrow and a nasty day Wednesday. Temps will get close to 40C in the north with dry air and wind. Cooling down for Thursday but looks basically dry for most. Western Tasmania will do ok, and possibly something over the northeast of Victoria.

[Gordon]

What doesn’t really make sense is the drivers should be favourable, but rainfall up to July was really ordinary, and since then the negative SAM episodes have been dry for most of the mainland with dry blustery westerly winds.

Very frustrating & hard to understand. For us, being well west of Melbourne, ENSO isn't much of an influence one way or the other, but the IOD is. We've never had below average rain with a negative IOD . Maybe our current understanding of climate drivers has become a thing of the past?

[hillybilly]

Hot windy one today. Gusty but mostly dry front mid arvo. Some high based showers possible for VIC, and better chance for TAS but still pretty sparse. That then kicks or a series of weak fronts which will push through TAS but look like basically missing VIC. Does feel like it’s headed toward being a dry month.

Gordon you are right that things are baffling. Few things explain the year. Most confident is the strong rainfall decline that is affecting all Mediterranean rainfall parts of mainland Australia from April to July. Think basically those areas that rely on winter westerlies, so southeast SA, western VIC, southwest WA etc. The highs are just getting stronger and stronger, and has caused the average to drop by 30% or 50-100mm in those months. Every year you roll up and that’s a dead weight on your cool season total.

I think the second half of the cool season is partly a result of the record sudden stratospheric warming back in mid winter. That disrupted the build up to the ozone hole, and that’s why we’ve had a weak, small and short lived ozone hole this year. That is probably why we keep getting these strong negative SAM excursions. The IOD has kicked in late and the relative La Niña is also pretty late, and the SAM has basically hidden their influence so far.

The trend part is climate change. The SSW, who knows. The El Niño- La Niña flip flop is probably climate change. They used to come every few years, now almost every year is El Niño or La Niña.

That is at least how I make sense of it. Meanwhile temps just keep cooking and sea ice is bumping along record lows so we are pushing further into new territory.

[QldTwister]

Nice and warm out there so nice, but will be the warmest day for at least 7 to 10 days sadly once cool change later today

Dry is def the word inland areas really struggling

[QldTwister]

Nice storm here few bolts, couple big booms and brief down pour you cant beat spring summer so good

warm and humid now love chnage still a while away wish was ages away lol.

[hillybilly]

Warm 28C at home. Big diurnal temperature range with a min of 5C then an early arvo spike then front hot and back down to the mid teens. Unfortunately a dry change in the end.

Now back to a series of weak fronts, with the odd shower in Tasmania, heavier out west, and more or less fine for Victoria. Feels like we are edging towards really difficult fire season on the mainland if it doesn’t rain soon.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Scenic day today.
Mixed bag of all cloud types….
Now looks like we’re in for rain just when landscaping renovating doesn’t require rain.

Edit.. 1.3mm.

And forecast today changed over night to “Heavy Rain”

[snowfall]

Had a brief shower yesterday with the cool change and a brief thunderstorm on Wednesday. But neither delivered enough to actually tip the gauge.

We've only had 2mm in 3 weeks here, and with the heat and wind on Wednesday, everything is fast drying out and paddocks are turning brown. Still no clear signs of any substantial rain coming up. Fingers crossed the negative IOD delivers something eventually, but whether it even lasts is still a big question.

[snowfall]

I think the second half of the cool season is partly a result of the record sudden stratospheric warming back in mid winter. That disrupted the build up to the ozone hole, and that’s why we’ve had a weak, small and short lived ozone hole this year. That is probably why we keep getting these strong negative SAM excursions. The IOD has kicked in late and the relative La Niña is also pretty late, and the SAM has basically hidden their influence so far.

This is how I have seen it too. When we found out about the SSW, I thought here we go, lots of negative SAM on its way. The last time I recall this happening was in 2019 ahead of the big bushfires, although that was also coming off years of drought, especially in NSW. Although it's good for some westerly exposed areas that typically benefit from a negative SAM, for most it just manifests as a lot of dry, windy weather, which has again been the case this spring.

The SAM has pretty much been negative since mid September, but this past week it has shifted slightly to the positive side of the ledger. Not sure if that is the start of a new trend or a blip, but if we can get a sustained positive SAM in the next few weeks, then maybe luck will change and we'll start to see some effects from the Indian Ocean.

[hillybilly]

Strong front here today, but sadly dry air again. Just 1.4mm in the gauge. Got a bit of hail, and brief snow on the mountain.

This dry spell continues at least to mid week. Up north it’s exceptionally hot so only a matter of time before we get some big spikes down here.

Not sure what the next thread should be as progs are jumpy and uninspiring

[stevco123]

Should be the wettest part of the year, but not this year it seems