Developing low with heat storms and rain: October 16-

Pengaz · Post by **Pengaz** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 11:03 am

Good solid rain here too for the past hour. Gauge looks like its already up to 10mm.

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 11:19 am

Rain rain and more rain today
Beautiful 15 mm and radar starting to look very threatening

James · Post by **James** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 11:24 am

all this talk of severe storms for many days now in the forecasts but yet to hear one piece of thunder locally, its just been very muggy with rain here and there. Lets see if today delivers, all models said storms through last night but nothing happened.

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 11:56 am

Radar seems to be underestimating...pouring here

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 12:15 pm

Real north Queensland type rain. Totals building quickly. 21mm now, still coming down. Humidity 90%.
I doubt we will get severe storms, they seldom happen in Melbourne metro even if conditions are perfect.
Although development looks interesting near the Macedon ranges

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 12:49 pm

Wilko wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 11:56 am Radar seems to be underestimating...pouring here

Agreed. Almost seemed to overestimate for the day or two prior to this morning, but we just had the heaviest rain so far - absolutely torrential - and yet it didn't look like anything special on the radar.

(27mm in 30 minutes at Gardners Creek, and similar at Elsternwick)

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 12:52 pm

Sun is out...pop !

Post by **Blackee** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 12:55 pm

James wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 11:24 am all this talk of severe storms for many days now in the forecasts but yet to hear one piece of thunder locally, its just been very muggy with rain here and there. Lets see if today delivers, all models said storms through last night but nothing happened.

Perhaps wait until this afternoon brings before writing it off. Just shy of 20mm bayside. Sun is out boding well for a stormy few hours ahead

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 1:13 pm

A few very tame rumbles about. Humid, but I reckon it's just about done and dusted here. All up - 23mm this week. 29mm MTD. Dry for the rest of October IMHO.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 1:30 pm

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 1:13 pm A few very tame rumbles about. Humid, but I reckon it's just about done and dusted here.

We're both comfortably back inside the latest STW zone http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21033.shtml, so maybe a bit of life in this system yet? Low has been moving east slower than forecast, which has to be a good thing.

Skywalker · Post by **Skywalker** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 1:40 pm

First rolls of thunder here. Here we go...

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 2:06 pm

Gordon wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 1:30 pm
StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 1:13 pm A few very tame rumbles about. Humid, but I reckon it's just about done and dusted here.
We're both comfortably back inside the latest STW zone http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21033.shtml, so maybe a bit of life in this system yet? Low has been moving east slower than forecast, which has to be a good thing.

Drier air has already moved in from the West. All done.

Pengaz · Post by **Pengaz** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 2:42 pm

Up to 19mm here now and another round inbound. Lots of thunder with this one.

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 2:48 pm

Those cells near Geelong look like trouble

jmw2207 · Post by **jmw2207** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 3:40 pm

Must admit...the media (and bom) beat up on this system has reached new low levels.

phunkster · Post by **phunkster** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 3:49 pm

Wilko wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 2:48 pm Those cells near Geelong look like trouble

Looks like 25mm in about 15 mins and possibly still going...

James · Post by **James** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 4:00 pm

some short heavy showers here and rumbly tummys but actually all very calm and still ....very sleepy like weather, points for trying though!

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 4:11 pm

phunkster wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 3:49 pm
Wilko wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 2:48 pm Those cells near Geelong look like trouble
Looks like 25mm in about 15 mins and possibly still going...

Correction
OMG 42mm in 30mins for Geelong

Post by **93ben** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 4:20 pm

Wilko wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 4:11 pm OMG 42mm in 30mins for Geelong

Yeah that one is nasty...

WeatherViewer · Post by **WeatherViewer** » Fri Oct 18, 2024 4:50 pm

In Bali at the moment, hot, sunny and humid... No storms here and very boring predictable weather.

Looking at the gauge back home in Truganina, 23 KM directly west, just behind Laverton North. My gauge at home is showing 41.2mm.

That's crazy rain for my spot, does that sound about right? Missing all the action!!!