Developing low with heat storms and rain: October 16-

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Oct 13, 2024 7:26 am

Big system showing up for the week ahead with a trough developing in the Gold Fields of WA then sliding south over Victoria and Tasmania in the week ahead. Exceptionally warm air ahead of the system with upper air temperatures running more than 10C above average ahead of the system. Winds will become gusty, with temps into the mid to high 30s possible into the Mallee. Storms and rain then spreads south and east. Quite a spread in rainfall totals depending on the exact track of the system, but currently looks very wet for Tasmania, and ok for most of Victoria. Could be heavy falls in western parts of TAS, and about the ranges in Victoria.

Australis(Shell3155) · Sun Oct 13, 2024 11:46 am

Late shower Thursday
20 to 40mm Friday..
Rain again sat,
Let’s see…

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Sun Oct 13, 2024 12:42 pm

WATL has been surprisingly consistent for 25-50mm over the week for much of Vic, despite wild fluctuations in individual models.

Certainly worth this new thread; some rain is forecast to begin here from tonight.

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Sun Oct 13, 2024 6:16 pm

Ripper day today and Saturday was nice too

Very spring like weather this week

Mid to high 20s, little humid, unsettled week with multiple troughs passing through showers and thunderstroms tending to rain periods at times. Think eastern and NE Vic will do best this week.

Could be stroms around Vic every day this week so active week ahead nice to see.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Sun Oct 13, 2024 10:06 pm

Bursts of quite heavy rain here. Should be at least a few mm's worth by morning if it keeps up like this. Good start.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Sun Oct 13, 2024 11:22 pm

Slight chance of a shower forecast for Melbourne. I guess bom got it right then ay?

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Oct 14, 2024 10:47 am

Yes, WATL has been rocksteady. But everything from 5 to 60mm on individual forecast models. Inland trough early this week then a complex Low on Thursday/Friday certainly makes for tough rain forecasting...

Regardless, it could make for a fun week.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Mon Oct 14, 2024 1:47 pm

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 10:47 am Yes, WATL has been rocksteady. But everything from 5 to 60mm on individual forecast models. Inland trough early this week then a complex Low on Thursday/Friday certainly makes for tough rain forecasting...

Regardless, it could make for a fun week.

Latest BOM 4 day synoptic chart has a 990 low in western Bass Strait on Friday morning. If I didn't know any better, I'd expect that to bring us significant rain

. (3mm overnight here to open the account for this 'system'.)

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:46 pm

stevco123 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 11:22 pm Slight chance of a shower forecast for Melbourne. I guess bom got it right then ay?

Yep they did lol, didnt rain at all in Melb or east all Geelong and south to dry this side of bay.

Windy as atm strong and gusty E to SE winds classic late spring summer weather bit cool though

Active 2 days inland lots of showers patchy rain and thunderstroms in west and north Vic might get some in Melb to

Thursday Friday warm windy stormy shame be bit mosture starved if had big tropical moist infeed be huge event

Active week lots weather to watch and temps in the 20s loving it

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Oct 15, 2024 6:38 am

Couple of mm’s yesterday to “start” the event. Main event now moving in from SA. Showers and storms for the southeast mainland each day this week, becoming rain for Thursday and Friday. The system is lagging about a day for Tasmania.

Already some good falls for SA, in some parts the best for months, though at this stage will be too late for crops. Hopefully they have cut for hay or at least got some of the crops off. Will put a bit of a stay on the fire season, though the blow torch that will hit parts on Wednesday and Thursday will dry things out quickly for areas north and west of the Wimmera. High 30s and low 40s going to be widespread. It’s possible SA will see a new record October max with this.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Oct 15, 2024 9:43 am

Things are slowly aligning. A real good chance of 20-40mm here.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:09 pm

Pics and videos on social media of a rope tornado in happy happy joy joy (south of Ballarat)

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:22 pm

Yeah, well there is a bit of convection kicking off just to our West. Around Hay-Deniliquin in the Riverina of NSW also looks to be going off.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Oct 15, 2024 7:25 pm

Well, just like most of the past 6 months it appears to be under-delivering. All very high-based and no rain yet.

Australis(Shell3155) · Wed Oct 16, 2024 5:40 pm

Looks like a good storm @Geelong.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:40 pm

Parts of the Wimmera are getting smashed this evening. A very dangerous looking storm East of Horsham.

Reports of 4cm hail at Casterton earlier.

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:57 pm

Lots of rumbles here just before sunset and now a nice band of convective rain. Slow moving so hoping it adds up a bit.

Tomorrow starts off quiet then gets really active from the afternoon. Then a very wet Friday for much of the southeast. Very welcome, well except for cropper trying to get crops off.