More fronts Sept 19-25

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Sat Sep 21, 2024 3:16 pm

QldTwister wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2024 5:04 pm Had 3mm yesterday and
2mm day before and should see another 3-5mm here again today few heavy bursts so far this arvo and more to come.

Few burbs could see 5 to 10mm and there has been a few thunerstorms south of Frankston with that band moving through right now and more chuncky showers to the west.

More showers tonight, light showers over the weekend then big event next week and possibly week after as well

Pattern flip could begin next week hoping farming areas get a drenching but wont be able lock in till sunday night monday, I reckon as the model waltz continues for another couple days but good signs on all models for some rain for everyone one and soaking for some lucky folk,

Intresting 2 weeks of weather ahead

Spot on with 10mm with yesterday’s chunky showers

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Sun Sep 22, 2024 6:08 pm

Hmmm, each model run has less and less rain. September is a right-off. Another terrible month.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Sun Sep 22, 2024 6:15 pm

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 6:08 pm Hmmm, each model run has less and less rain. September is a right-off. Another terrible month.

I'm in Mildura currently. I feel like everything I've been told is a lie. Mainly green all the way from Melbourne through Bendigo and Swan Hill and to Mildura. Sure pockets were dry past Swan Hill but mainly very lush. I took the same road last year September and it was much drier. I will venture a little more north and west tomorrow and compare to last year.

Australis(Shell3155) · Sun Sep 22, 2024 7:09 pm

Dads Just arrived Darwin to Mildura,
He mentioned the crops being eaten by mice and not survived no rain..
Someone on here mentioned Sea lake on was very dry,
I think your way hasn’t copped the lack of rain,
Keep us updated, last time I headed that way
Xmas 23 it was in bad floods,
Mentioned was the river is very low also.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Sun Sep 22, 2024 7:14 pm

Australis(Shell3155) wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 7:09 pm Dads Just arrived Darwin to Mildura,
He mentioned the crops being eaten by mice and not survived no rain..
Someone on here mentioned Sea lake on was very dry,
I think your way hasn’t copped the lack of rain,
Keep us updated, last time I headed that way
Xmas 23 it was in bad floods,
Mentioned was the river is very low also.

The river, 3 hours ago. Definitely not low

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Sep 23, 2024 9:24 am

stevco123 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 6:15 pm
StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 6:08 pm Hmmm, each model run has less and less rain. September is a right-off. Another terrible month.
I'm in Mildura currently. I feel like everything I've been told is a lie. Mainly green all the way from Melbourne through Bendigo and Swan Hill and to Mildura. Sure pockets were dry past Swan Hill but mainly very lush. I took the same road last year September and it was much drier. I will venture a little more north and west tomorrow and compare to last year.

Looks can be deceiving. Most crops are drying out at the stem and starved of moisture. Some crops might be OK if they didn't cop the frosts. Irrigated crops are mostly very good, especially around Deniliquin. Grain crops in heavier Wimmera soils - not good.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Sep 23, 2024 9:26 am

Great Sandy Desert and much of the Kimberley copped a deluge over the weekend. Some September rainfall records broken around Telfer and Halls Creek. Will that rainband make it South into Vic? Probably not. NSW might do ok out of it.

The drought continues.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Mon Sep 23, 2024 10:02 am

Re Murray flows, flow to South Australia is a reasonable guide. Still looking okay, but a long way behind this time last year.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:04 pm

Blowing like crazy all day down here. Quite a bit of minor damage. Squeezed out a couple showers but nothing to add to the score. Dusting of snow on the mountain.

Next system looks ok for Victoria but progs are jumpy. A miss for most of Tasmania.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:12 pm

More downgrades this afternoon. We might be lucky to get 2mm in the next week.

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Tue Sep 24, 2024 12:51 pm

Yeah I think east of the calder is ok west of the calder not and near the SA border even worse

Driving to Mildura up the calder tomorrow so will report back, looking forward to it.
Wimmera and Mallee def need a good soak though.

Had 10mm here sine last post wet period last week.
Looking like a bit more rain on the way here next few days prob another 5 to 15mm but happy to get nothing and send it north and west lol. Sadly looking like little for much of the west and north shame.

Looking like dump on the way for esatern NSW looking very wet there late week

23c and sunny atm LOVING IT winter almost over

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Sep 24, 2024 8:22 pm

There won't be a good soak in Northern Vic, sadly. It didn't even look like raining this evening. The air is just so so dry, and the ground is baked hard.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:22 am

No rain overnight. Can't see anything much today either. Fail.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Sep 25, 2024 11:53 am

About 8mm here so far, looks to be clearing for now.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:44 pm

Not even a drop here, as I expected.

I'm struggling to remember a more sustained period of dry weather and failure of climate and numerical forecast models, especially in Spring (when they are usually more reliable).

The BOM still persist in outputting junk climate outlooks such as 90%+ chance of above average rainfall in the next week, when I can say with high confidence that is just plain wrong and we will likely end up with 0-2mm at best.

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:03 pm

Gee that’s a shame about northern Victoria. Southern vic did ok. Hearing in some areas it’s the best fall in a couple of months, even though it was only 10mm give or take for most.

Great little system for NSW ranges which were starting to dry out.

Dud for most of TAS as expected. Cold dry front with isolated coldies and near sea level snow tonight. Squeezed out just 0.4mm at home.

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Wed Sep 25, 2024 10:27 pm

Had few showers on the drive to Mildura, but while crops are green in spots they are short and yellowing and some paddocks are bare and sides of road is dry and nature strips in towns are dry.

Some heavy showers around Mildura and Ouyen with large puddles and a few local reprts of 8-14mm falls very localised though and after maybe 1-3mm sunday next 2 weeks looking dry and warm so yep lots crops failures.

River is fine though.

Looking forward to the wram sunshine up here, but i know its not good for much of northern Mallee.

SB only have to go back to 2018 and 2019, 19 was crazy dry

Macedonian · Post by **Macedonian** » Thu Sep 26, 2024 7:10 am

Urgh, freezing Siberian morning. Very strong southerly wind blasting away and wind-driven low cloud racing through the tree trunks. Wish I could stay in bed.
1.4° at 7am

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:07 am

No rain here as expected. Driest Sept since 2008 (that's a worry)...

This Sunday - maybe a mm or two?

Beyond that, getting too warm and the last of the green will be cooked.

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Thu Sep 26, 2024 9:22 am

Hoping things improve soon for northern areas. Last year, we had a dry start but a wet end to spring. Don't know how likely that is to occur again, but maybe there is some potential with a developing La Niña?

We've been a bit luckier this month after a dry August. 14mm here from yesterday's rain, which takes MTD to 87mm. A big difference between the north and south of the ranges, which is unusual at this time of year.