More fronts Sept 19-25

[Gordon]

After a small break, looks like another series of fronts with showers and cool/ cold conditions until at least next Wednesday.

Details vary across the models, but precipitation should add up for southern Vic and the ranges, and might be another wind/ rain/ snow/ cold slamming for Tasmania?

[stevco123]

Some interesting stats coming through from last night according to Weatherzone, including Adelaide's coldest spring morning ever (since records began ofcourse) ar 1.3 degrees and Cleve's first ever negative temperature recorded in ANY month. Quite impressive.

[Tassiedave]

Looks like very low snow levels next Wednesday

[QldTwister]

Had 26mm with storm then cold outbreak last week, keeping things wet and green.

North of ranges folk are DEPESERATE for rain, huge crop losses shapping up for SA and much of the Mallee if next week does not drop 20-30mm for those areas, frost also killing them big drought year for those areas this year

Today is great more of this please but wet grey cloudy Thurs to Monday but only southern Vic north Vic stays dry

[StratoBendigo]

It's shaping up to be a disaster for many crop growers:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-18/ ... /104358994

BOM climate rainfall forecasts have also been terrible of late.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

It's shaping up to be a disaster for many crop growers:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-18/ ... /104358994

BOM climate rainfall forecasts have also been terrible of late.

Can anyone confirm this… ?
Doesn’t seem right that it’s that bad they can’t even make hay…
Sometimes what s reported isn’t always how it is…

[Gordon]

It's shaping up to be a disaster for many crop growers:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-18/ ... /104358994

BOM climate rainfall forecasts have also been terrible of late.

Can anyone confirm this… ?
Doesn’t seem right that it’s that bad they can’t even make hay…
Sometimes what s reported isn’t always how it is…

Absolutely. It's hit and miss, but there are parts of western Vic which aren't even managing a green drought. A farmer mate of mine was spending $15,000 a week trucking in feed for his stock last time I checked. The Dandenongs are one of the few areas doing okay.

Sad looking map for the last 6 months (note the lowest rainfall on record areas). And yes, the climate forecasts have been rubbish for the last year or more - almost the kiss of death

[StratoBendigo]

The past 6 weeks have been diabolical for much of Vic and SA. Terrible timing and the forecast models are struggling with the system next week. Could be 5mm or 50mm. Who knows?

FWIW, LaNina appears to be developing quite quickly. Could even be quite strong and make for a wet summer.

[QldTwister]

Its def real once you get north of Sea lake so dry and barron even worse north of Oyuen only 100 to 120mm for the year for some up there, others have got lucky but last few months thats whats being bad with little to no rain.

Melb and east have done well but very local, north of ranges nothing for weeks, need next week come off so bad for them otherwise to late west south west also really missed out.

Meanwhile heavy shower here today after 2mm last night prob get 20-30mm in coming days.

[hillybilly]

The westerlies have failed again for the mainland croppers who rely on westerlies. Thats a pattern that has been getting more and more common since the 1970s. The pressure over southern Australia has risen by nearly 3hPa in the critical April to July window, which translated into 5-10% per hPa rainfall decline basically on all those spots painted red (so 20-30% total). As you further east and south you still get rain from easterly systems and the fronts, so ironically Tasmania is doing very well, perhaps even a bit too wet now. Anyone following the climate conversation will know this shift has been talked about for more than thirty years and is now coming to pass. It’s the croppers in southern SA, southwest WA and western Victoria which are most affected by the change as all the rain comes from westerlies.

This latest front has been a cracker for Tasmania. Quick 10mm at home and just 6C at 2pm. Big gusts. Getting close to 100mm mtd now, which will make our third month in a row to get there. That’s really unusual. Suspect we may well see some record three month totals popping up at the end of September. All those fronts pilling plenty of snow on the mountain down here.

Hard to pick a break in the sequence atm with a front a day.

[stevco123]

The westerlies have failed again for the mainland croppers who rely on westerlies. Thats a pattern that has been getting more and more common since the 1970s. The pressure over southern Australia has risen by nearly 3hPa in the critical April to July window, which translated into 5-10% per hPa rainfall decline basically on all those spots painted red (so 20-30% total). As you further east and south you still get rain from easterly systems and the fronts, so ironically Tasmania is doing very well, perhaps even a bit too wet now. Anyone following the climate conversation will know this shift has been talked about for more than thirty years and is now coming to pass. It’s the croppers in southern SA, southwest WA and western Victoria which are most affected by the change as all the rain comes from westerlies.

This latest front has been a cracker for Tasmania. Quick 10mm at home and just 6C at 2pm. Big gusts. Getting close to 100mm mtd now, which will make our third month in a row to get there. That’s really unusual. Suspect we may well see some record three month totals popping up at the end of September. All those fronts pilling plenty of snow on the mountain down here.

Hard to pick a break in the sequence atm with a front a day.

Perhaps we just don't have enough data and the weather is returning to what it once was 300,400, 500 years ago? We'd never know. It's all cyclical.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Sad to hear, re crops,
Turns out I asked the question and yes, Mallee beyond Mildura what hay was left was eaten by mice.

Stock up on flour.

[Tassiedave]

The latest ACCESS - G model going for something big next week. GFS a bit more circumspect

[StratoBendigo]

Most of the models not that interested in next week. Another big fail IMO.

[Wilko]

Front of heavy showers from the west
Should be few mm in it
Surf is a solid 8-10ft today

[QldTwister]

Had 3mm yesterday and
2mm day before and should see another 3-5mm here again today few heavy bursts so far this arvo and more to come.

Few burbs could see 5 to 10mm and there has been a few thunerstorms south of Frankston with that band moving through right now and more chuncky showers to the west.

More showers tonight, light showers over the weekend then big event next week and possibly week after as well

Pattern flip could begin next week hoping farming areas get a drenching but wont be able lock in till sunday night monday, I reckon as the model waltz continues for another couple days but good signs on all models for some rain for everyone one and soaking for some lucky folk,

Intresting 2 weeks of weather ahead

[hillybilly]

The westerlies have failed again for the mainland croppers who rely on westerlies. Thats a pattern that has been getting more and more common since the 1970s. The pressure over southern Australia has risen by nearly 3hPa in the critical April to July window, which translated into 5-10% per hPa rainfall decline basically on all those spots painted red (so 20-30% total). As you further east and south you still get rain from easterly systems and the fronts, so ironically Tasmania is doing very well, perhaps even a bit too wet now. Anyone following the climate conversation will know this shift has been talked about for more than thirty years and is now coming to pass. It’s the croppers in southern SA, southwest WA and western Victoria which are most affected by the change as all the rain comes from westerlies.

This latest front has been a cracker for Tasmania. Quick 10mm at home and just 6C at 2pm. Big gusts. Getting close to 100mm mtd now, which will make our third month in a row to get there. That’s really unusual. Suspect we may well see some record three month totals popping up at the end of September. All those fronts pilling plenty of snow on the mountain down here.

Hard to pick a break in the sequence atm with a front a day.

Perhaps we just don't have enough data and the weather is returning to what it once was 300,400, 500 years ago? We'd never know. It's all cyclical.

But we’ve got cave cores, ice cores, sediments cores, coral cores, tree rings, elevated lake beaches, marshes, glacial moraines, and the massive forests on arrival of Europeans which tell us it isn’t a pattern. You can measure dozen of isotopes, salt, vegetation type, charcoal etc and one gets an amazing record. We also predicted it decades ago. Theres nothing controversial in any of it.

[hillybilly]

Cracking little front, better for Victoria. Wouldn’t be surprised to hear reports of small hail and thunder. Tassie it’s a bit more shreaded by the ranges. More snow on the mountains. Snow depths are quite healthy around Tassie now

[StratoBendigo]

2mm yesterday. While the airport aws has had 14mm MTD, we're on 6mm. Appallingly dry atm.

The front next week looks like another nothing system. I have suspicions it'll end up being our driest ever September.

[hillybilly]

2mm yesterday. While the airport aws has had 14mm MTD, we're on 6mm. Appallingly dry atm.

The front next week looks like another nothing system. I have suspicions it'll end up being our driest ever September.

That’s not good. This dry is really creeping on the mainland.

If you are further south, Tis ironically very wet. Few sites in Tas approaching their wettest September on record. Just shy of 100mm at our place and just a bit short of 400mm in ten weeks. No complaints as the start to 2024 was very dry, but it is feeling very soggy.

Another front for Sunday. Progs very jumpy for next week, but overall tending to wind back a bit.