Another long dry spell: August 1-

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Aug 01, 2024 6:33 am

New thread for the long long period of settled weather. Weak fronts hitting western Tasmania but basically fine for most other areas for a week and perhaps much longer. Some frosts and fog, but generally just anticyclonic weather so mild arvos away from persistent fog, and chilly mornings.

We should be seeing westerlies by now given its late winter, but yet it’s just block after block

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Thu Aug 01, 2024 10:11 am

Finished July on 74mm, ytd 308mm. Not as bad as many recent months, but still significantly below average on both counts.

I have long since given up trying to predict the weather more than a week out. The climate forecasts and usual climate drivers seem meaningless these days. Might have to go back to watching the behaviour of ants and the flight paths of black cockatoos

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Thu Aug 01, 2024 10:28 am

I have a sneaking suspicion things will get spicy from mid-August when the Polar vortex blasts out to its full extent.

Meanwhile, another deep -2c frost this morning.

Macedonian · Post by **Macedonian** » Thu Aug 01, 2024 10:57 am

-3° at Macedon this morning at work. As low as -6° on a PWS at Woodend.

Post by **hillybilly** » Fri Aug 02, 2024 7:21 am

Just below zero here this morning. That’s fifth frost for the week with three sub-zeros for the week.

July here was good, just shy of 115mm, and apparently about decile 10. We got lucky

August running on decile 0 two days in but hope we improve on that

Looking at the broader pattern, Australia just has a horrible stubborn ridge. Everything being thrown out of the Indian Ocean is going south.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Fri Aug 02, 2024 8:48 am

-1c this morning. And no sign of rain well past mid-August. This looks very bad.

Post by **hillybilly** » Sat Aug 03, 2024 7:42 am

Mild windy night here. Might get a few spits today. Some ok falls on the west coast of TAS which is running very large deficits this year.

Progs look dismal for rain. At this rate will go a month between rain events for the eastern half of TAS and much of Victoria. Never seen anything like this when all the climate drivers are basically neutral or even favouring us for rain.

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Aug 04, 2024 6:41 am

Few light showers around here the last 24 hours with 0.2mm in the gauge. Good falls out west but else where fronts are more like mid summer than late winter slidding south with not much moisture. Quite mild too near the surface though steep lapse rates mean snow levels aren’t that high with flurries on the mountains down here

.

Geez pattern looks stuck, and temps slowly creeping up as the week creeps by. Would not be surprised to see a run of 20s in this sequence for VIC as the stuck ridge eventually draws down mild air.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Aug 05, 2024 6:44 am

1.4mm here yesterday. Guess August is off to a start.

Progs look mild, windy and pretty dry. Maybe the odd shower but tbh basically fine for most parts except western Tasmania for another week. Going to be quite warm for winter. Not record breaking, but very persistent mildness.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Mon Aug 05, 2024 2:10 pm

Nice top up of snow falling in the alps - both Vic & Snowys. Looks like several centimetres so far at some resorts.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Aug 06, 2024 9:11 pm

Gordon wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 2:10 pm Nice top up of snow falling in the alps - both Vic & Snowys. Looks like several centimetres so far at some resorts.

Really spring like up there. Steep lapse rates. Snowed again today on Kunanyi despite really mild surface temps. Few showers around Hobart with another 1mm at home. Apparently quite thundery, though not sure whether it rumbles or not.

Next week just looks like more of the same. Dying fronts putting a bit of instability aloft and really mild surface temps. Expecting 20s to start popping up soon.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Aug 07, 2024 9:38 am

Light frost here this morning. Some indications of rain later next week, possible NW cloud-band and instability.

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Aug 08, 2024 7:45 am

Another mild day yesterday and today looks the same. A few showers later but will be very hit and miss away from the Tasmanian west coast.

Still not seeing anything for a week. At this rate we will be running 2-3C above average for maxima come mid month in both Hobart and Melbourne. Given the month should start cooler and end warmer, that’s putting us on track for an August temperature approaching the highest on record, but guess we will see.

Some signs of a pattern break down about this time next week, but nothing properly cold in the outlook.

Winter was nice for those few week in June and July when it was properly wintery

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Thu Aug 08, 2024 10:23 am

Very windy here overnight and this morning. So far it's shaping up to be a dry August, unless we get a big event towards the end of the month. We haven't had any rain at all so far.

What a strange year. The rainfall has been especially inconsistent, from a couple of extremely wet months interspersed by very dry months with long blocking synoptic patterns. SAM is extremely negative right now and the IOD is not officially negative but leaning that way, yet we'd never know it here in southeast Aus. Spring is usually a mobile period synoptically, so hopefully things change a bit as we head out of winter...

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Thu Aug 08, 2024 4:02 pm

115mm here in July from 2 big events wet nothing for last week.

Yep really has being the year of massive highs if pattern continues warm to hot and dry spring on way but sure flip in pattern will come in few weeks to what though who knows

Northern ag areas would be struggleing 1 would assume some rain before things warm up and dry out further.

Looking forward to warm sunny weather Sun to Tues and couple 20s be nice to

Post by **hillybilly** » Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:42 pm

Mild to warm dry weather just rolls on. Still nothing on the progs. Will start getting close to early season records next week. Expecting croppers in South Australian and western Victoria are looking at difficult times as record dry weather now merges with unusual warmth.

Down here the trees are all budding and bees are very active. Looks and feels like late September.

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Aug 11, 2024 6:36 am

Warm winters night here. Overnight minima round 13-15C with 24 hour minimum typically around 12C. Hobart’s 12.4C looks like the warmest winter night since 2011.

Warmth rolls from here until about Sunday. Starting to look ok this coming week for rain though messy. Trough on a dying low initially then a front comes up into the back of it. Should give most people something.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Aug 12, 2024 6:59 am

18C here for a maximum yesterday. Today looks about the same. Change in the weather finally coming, but warmth will roll on most of the week. Some rain with a complex low then cold front. New thread time?

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Aug 12, 2024 10:48 am

A light frost here this morning (yet again), and cloudless skies. Very el-Nino like weather.

MJO pulse looks good for late-August. Back to winter soon. Hopefully decent rain in the mix (GFS and others thinking 15-40mm in the next 2 weeks).

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Aug 13, 2024 6:25 am

Warmth is now the story in the progs. Days of spring come early weather. Looks a pretty good chance that Melbourne will break the August record for consecutive days above 20C. Early days but expecting lots of record by the end of the month.

At least some rain is now inbound. Finally time for a new thread